theraven Forum Posts

Best bet of the day? 11h 52m ago

Caulfield r2 n3 CLINTON AFFAIR

Best bet of the day? 2d 10h ago

boo hoo, thought it was home.... looked like jimmy got off and ran like richard callandar was on it over the final 150..... still a terrible tip and simply poor value. Might have to spend a few days under the bridge.... poor effort.
Good luck Bardacarp & Boot Whip will be watching your tips with interest and trying to get my caesar princess wastage back!

Best bet of the day? 2d 12h ago

Gosford r1 n5 CAESAR'S PRINCESS blinkers first time the key

They haven't found tabassi yet and i'm hopelessly out of form with the best bets. Still gonna try to break the drought with the help of mighty Jim Cassidy and current king of trainers Chris Waller with
Caesar's Princess in what looks a pretty weak race at Gosford today. Hopefully the application of blinkers, combined with the skill of Jimbo and the prospect of being able to race foward on what looks to be a moderate tempo should all be positive ingredients for a recipe of long over due success for my very ordinary best bet ravings. (figs after tabassi 57 bets 19 winners return 59.3)
C'mon Jimbo!

Best bet of the day? 3d 11h ago

Gold Coast r4 n2 TABASSI
(updated stats after the dismal failure of Testa My Patience. 56 bets 19 winners return 59.3)

Best bet of the day? 2wk ago

Morphettville r6 n2 TESTA MY PATIENCE

Best bet of the day? 3wk 1d ago

Mr Nagle 3.5 to 2.5 but finish down outside rail.... still dreadful effort by me mentioned 5 runners and still missed winner, complete MUG!
(updated best bet stats: 55 bets, 19 winners, return 59.3)

Best bet of the day? 3wk 1d ago

M'brook r3 n6 MR NAGLE makes solid appeal with engagement of top country jock

After the woeful effort of Nobby Snip last sat I'm hoping that MR NAGLE can bring me back to the winners stall today. This lightly raced 4 year old enjoyed a box seat run before doing what many consider "difficult to do" in winning a 1650 class 1 at Wyong following a maiden win at Cessnock. Although up 2.5kg the engagement of Greg Ryan combined with a drop from provincial to country grade should combine to off set the weight rise.
On the pace map I expect Mr Nagle to settle in a handy position and get every chance to make it a hatrick in a race that looks to probably be run at a moderate tempo.
The main danger is the likely leader n4 JACKS SONG who should get a reasonable run in front and can hang on for a while following an even 3rd in this grade last time. Of the rest n10 My Hoity Toity, n1 Beau Colin and n12 Set The Spinnaker make the most appeal and have good trifecta chances.

Best bet of the day? 4wk ago

Randwick r8 n8 Nobby Snip

should be hard to hold out on home track, decent gate and top hoop on board

(meagre updated stas after the producer created nothing but confetti at wodonga, 53 bets, 19 winners, return 59.3)

Best bet of the day? 1mth ago

Wodonga r4 n1 THE PRODUCER good enough win last time and can repeat the dose!

n1 The Producer is an improving ex-tasmanian, who following a dominant maiden win finds itself up against a very limited bunch over the same course where it was successful last start. He's an improving type and should settle within striking distance and prove hard to hold out over the final furlong.
Of the rest n9 Tyira Ace could be worth a small ew ticket at odds. Has the application of blinkers, can box seat and distance step back helps. n2 Our Fabian also makes a value appeal as he could find a soft lead and may be ready to improve following 2 flattish runs this prep. Of the rest n5 Come To Moi would be the best but puts his best efforts in on a good surface so unless the track dries out he may struggle a touch on the dead 4 but he has a chance in a weak field.

SUNDAY THINK TANK 1mth 1wk ago

the last 3 races at Dubbo,
wasted a few hours over the formguide came up with the following

dubbo r5) 4/7/9/6
dubbo r6) 2/1/3
dubbo r7) 4/1/3

Feel most confident in r6 and r7.
r6) Quite keen on BOOMERANG in r7 its drawn to get a nice run along fence and is beutifully weighted. I would declare this as an ew special but his only issue is that its 2nd up... its 2nd up figs are 8-0-3-1. This is a worry but I still reckon its a very good ew hope. Probably a boxed quinny 2-1-3 also worth playing.
r7) Bennet produces FLYING FUJI, great win after rearing at start last time & primed for this with trial. big weight and no claim for bennet's girl rachel murray are issues but should find fence and when they fan will be hard to hold out if Bennet has it primed.

Will play a treble on uni tab boxing the numbers 4 by 3 by 3. 36 combo's.

Best bet of the day? 1mth 2wk ago

agree with podo. Had something ew on Shen Long, it ran a good race, thanks for the heads up benne05.

Best bet of the day? 1mth 2wk ago

nice ride by Ford, once she held the lead its was time to be happy.
(updated stats: bets 52 winners: 19 return: 59.3)

Best bet of the day? 1mth 2wk ago

Hawkesbury r1 n1 ROCK OF FORTUNE won't get it much weaker at hawkesbury

A lightly raced 4yo mare, Rock of Fortune triple placed in the city, makes her first appearance at provinicial level. She has had the benefit of 2 trials to prepare her for this assignment and from the inside marble should be no worse back than 3rd fence. Whilst she is no tough lioness, there is little depth in the field. Her most likely rival is only an unraced juvenile (ie a 2yo), whilst the third pick in the market was placed at Bathurst last time.
She won't be any fancy price (prob about 1.80) but with her city placings she should pack to much punch for her flimsy rivals.

Best bet of the day? 1mth 2wk ago

Thanks Brocky, have re-altered it. Too much coffee this morning!

Goulburn r4 n3 PASTORAL CARE

A slight grade drop, combined with the application of blinkers should assist in seeing this Guy Walter 3 year old being the testing material on his home track at Goulburn today.

(updated stats: bets 50 winners: 17 return: 54.9)

Best bet of the day? 1mth 2wk ago

caulfield r3 n7 SHEILA'S STAR

Best bet of the day? 1mth 3wk ago

Rosehill r9 n8 CELTS currently 8.0 should start shorter

Best bet of the day? 1mth 4wk ago

terrible run for a terrible tip. back to the poor house, hang on I never left it.
try hard stats now back in the red: 48 bets 15 wins return 46.1

Best bet of the day? 1mth 4wk ago

Hawkesbury r2 n2 BIOGRAPHICAL can find lead and grip on

Generally its not a bad idea to back leaders at Hawkesbury. This Waterhouse gelding has led in both its starts so its reasonable to expect it to find the front again today. It ran 2nd here on its debut over the same course last prep & despite running last in a recent trial, it seems to be fancied on the tote. Currently 1.8 on NSW tote with 10k in pool, but is 2.8 with corporates. Hopefully this is a positive sign that Biographical will be on the job.

Best bet of the day? 1mth 4wk ago

Canterbury r4 n2 NOT A DANCER

won this course last start. handles dead/good surface. Should get fairly OK run on pace with the benefit of stead's claim. Should hit front on straightening, knows how to win & can hang on gamely to the post.

Best bet of the day? 2mth ago

Good work Levitate .....we did it!!! Guy Walter the magician who is a genius at pulling a rabbit out of the hat.
Its a monumental moment for my pedestrian best bets. finally hit the front by 0.1 unit.... the slow boat to china would be travelling at light speed in comparison to my slothlike best bets progress
46 bets 15 winners return 46.1 amazing profit 0.1 unit (s).

Best bet of the day? 2mth ago

Kembla r6 n5 APPEARANCE nice prep and ready to take out black type

Prepared by master trainer Guy Walter Appearance should enjoy a nice box seat run and as demonstrated by her 1100m win at Canterbury possesses the acceleration required to defeat her rivals and claim group 3 success.

Best bet of the day? 2mth ago

Rosehill r8 n3 WILD N PROUD soft lead with top hoop= hard to run down

The step back in distance & class combined with a liking for the course as well as the prospect of a soft lead and recieving the services of Nash Rawiller (arguably one of Australia's top on pace hoops) who has been on this Snowland gelding for all 3 of it wins, should all be factors that will see Wild n Proud make a strong bid for victory in today's Phar Lap Stakes at Rosehill.

Best bet of the day? 2mth ago

Hawkesbury r2 n5 SPAIN

won well over 1300 at hawk on a slow track 2 starts ago. Has a value chance at 7.0.

(punting peasant stats: 43 bets 14 winners return 40.7.... still eatin the paint off the walls)

Best bet of the day? 2mth ago

newcastle r8 n14 Hauton

(stats still poor: 42 bets 13 winners return 34.9.... layers are grinning like chesire cats)

Best bet of the day? 2mth 1wk ago

Benalla r2 n8 YOU TELL ME grade drop should get it home

Following an "unlucky" 2nd as beaten fav at Cranbourne, You Tell Me should relish the drop to country grade and prove extremely hard to beat from the inside gate.

Best bet of the day? 2mth 1wk ago

Randwick r2 n1 RACEWAY

nice work with Bennett's horse at the 'brook kingnato!!!

Best bet of the day? 2mth 1wk ago

Von Tesse gone at the 400..... last. I should be burnt.

Best bet of the day? 2mth 1wk ago

Wyong r2 n2 VON TEESE soft lead can get it home

This Waterhouse trained filly should be hard to beat at its 3rd run at "leader friendly" Wyong today. Was a game 3rd in similar grade last start and gets the benefit of a 1.5 claim. The real key to its chances is that it should FIND THE FRONT FAIRLY CHEAPLY. I've looked at 3 different speed maps and all of them have Von Teese as a clear leader. (If you back it before the race you should be able to easily lay it back in the run if it leads as expected at a shorter quote).
With the Waterhouse "bone & muscle" Von Teese should have enough in her tank to hold her moderate rivals at bay.

(updated imbo stats: bets: 39 wins: 13 return: 34.9)

Best bet of the day? 2mth 2wk ago

Morphetville r3 n5 LANGUISH

Best bet of the day? 2mth 2wk ago

Gawler r8 n4 LITTLE HOUSE

Unbeaten in 3 goes, has been extremely well placed here. Drawn to get a decent run she should prove hard to hold out in the final drive to the line.

Best bet of the day? 2mth 3wk ago

confident & heady ride by Funky Gibbons gets her home! i was worried in the betting opened evens and got out to 2.6!!!

Best bet of the day? 2mth 3wk ago

Scone r1 n6 GIRLS NIGHT OUT well suited at set weights against a very weak bunch

Girl's Niight Out should prove to be extremely hard to beat in what looks a very thin race at Scone today. She was second at newcastle 3 starts ago and at her latest effort ran a game (but distant) 2nd in a CLASS ONE at M'brook to PlayitStraight (who has won since). She has a good trainer (Kris Lees); has drawn well in 3 and the step back from 1450 to 1400 should also assist.
The major query is the Heavy 8 track rating, she is untried on heavy but performed well at her only start on a slow 7, when beaten a neck by Alchemy at Newcastle. She gets her chance in weak company today.
Her main danger is probably n5 FAD who is on a 2 day back up!!! and G Ryan takes over from M Paget and she also has the benefit of the inside gate. The wet surface could be a problem but on the quick back up she must be respected.
The rest of them look pretty limited. n4 TOURMALET would be next pick, ran a fair 3rd at Cessnock before failing at Newc last time.
(I've got plenty to say but as my stats show I'm mostly full of hot air: 36 bets 11 wins return 30.1)

Best bet of the day? 2mth 3wk ago

Armidale r2 n3 IM IN THE MONEY class drop and handy gate give strong appeal

Well it was proven that there isn't much under my hat after another failure by my bet of the day at Flemington yesterday. But since there's truth in the saying "no brain no pain" I will continue on with my pathetic attempts to come good with a "bet of the day".
IM IN THE MONEY should appreciate a handy grade drop (from Goulburn to Armidale) today. Whilst I am a bit worried about her being a 3yo filly it is her ideal barrier draw that makes me think she has a very good chance today.
At the last Armidale meeting there was (in my view) a SEVERE BIAS that favoured horses that were racing close to the rail, so I am taking the punt that this could again be the case today. If so IM IN THE MONEY, if ridden positively (I'll be keeping a VERY KEEN eye on the market) can secure the box seat or the 1 by 1 on what could be a fairly moderate tempo. This should see her well placed to launch a decent challenge to her moderate rivals in the straight.
If she's easy in the betting or simply lacks the intestinal fortitude to beat her Armidale friends, then there are a couple of interesting dangers. n7 FAD has ability when right and is capable of testing my pick. She has drawn a gate INSIDE of IM IN THE MONEY so once again the betting is important. If FAD is solid in the market then she may be dug up early to sit in the box with IM IN THE MONEY outside her, but if there's no move in the betting then she will probably be two back along the rail and this will allow IM IN THE MONEY to get the box seat.
Of the rest n10 SEMENYA could be one to speck at odds as she nearly beat Playitstrait (who will be fav in r5) 2 starts back before having excuses last time. Leon Davies has a couple in the race particularly n1 LEADERS ROAD (greg ryan must be respected) and to a much lesser degree n4 PUSH THRU (limited type but can improve3rd up). But I am putting my faith in the SUPERIOR barrier draw of IM IN THE MONEY to see it get home.
If you are betting at Armidale today look out for evidence of the rail bias, if its there then you can make a dollar using the punters paradise speed maps which are a quite effective tool since they are made available to us at no charge by the good people who run this wonderful site.

ps. Congratulations are due to Madmax60 who did what I simply can't do. Nominate a best bet that wins at a backable price. Well done to you and Drunken Sailor

Best bet of the day? 2mth 3wk ago

Flemington r4 n7 UNDER THE HAT

Best bet of the day? 2mth 3wk ago

Naynay tried hard but you were spot on about the dry surface problem podo. He wanted to lay in a bit and was probably feeling the track in his legs. Only just got beat but then again might as well as got beaten by a mile.
The pathway to poverty continues. 34 for 10 return 27.5

Best bet of the day? 2mth 3wk ago

Rockhampton r1) n2 NAYNAY to PAYPAY!!!

That was about the lamest title I could come up with, in order to reflect the lameness of my ability to select an effective best bet of the day and furthermore to remind myself of the lame effort put in by Prophet at Port Lincoln yesterday. Still someone has to be at the bottom of the forum so here goes with another imbecilic attempt to find a winner.
NAYNAY makes appeal because it is 2nd up record of 5 starts for 3 wins suggests that it could be ready to greet the judge today following its game solid closing 2nd when a heavily backed favourite first up. Should be up to the grade as won in open company last preparation (it won a 20k race and this race is only worth 10k). There should be a fair bit of competition for the lead so NAYNAY will get the advantage of the final crack at 'em if cut throat tactics are employed as the pacemakers tussle for the lead.

(struggle street stats: 33 "bet of the days" 10 winners, return: 27.5 units)

Best bet of the day? 2mth 3wk ago

Port Lincoln r6 n1 PROPHETS speedy type who should appreciate easier venue today

Should press foward from his outside gate to probably sit outside VENTIC. Has shown enough in provincial class to suggest that he has enough class to ward off his rivals in easier country grade at the port.

DECEIVER .... up to midweek grade in town 3mth ago

won by a good margin! he's a good type!!!

DECEIVER .... up to midweek grade in town 3mth ago

been a big go tab fixed 2.3 into 1.8. track bias suits winners coming down outside. poisonous odds.
manged to back it at 1.95 and layed it back at 1.9, 1.86. Hope it wins but at under even munny it aint value!

DECEIVER .... up to midweek grade in town 3mth ago

Definetely a handy field at Canberra today that will test Deceiver's potential. Whilst there is some quality in the field, if Deceiver is going to be up to city grade then he should make his presence felt here. The PACE is the key, the harder they go early the more chance (as he will get back) he has. Deciever's chances will also hinge on track bias, if the track is advantageous to leaders then he won't be a serious betting proposition if under 3.0.
DERALON should go foward as will OUR BRIGHTEST STAR whilst GOLDEN DAGGER (drawn outside gate should press foward. So there is enough "go foward imputeus" to suggest that DECIEVER will get the neccessary tempo to be able to produce his acceleration and win the event.
But even so it won't be that easy.
Have to respect n8- OUR BRIGHTEST STAR who was posted 3wfb when just going under at Canberra to STEINNBERG (who she meets 4kg better). From the 2 gate she is placed to get the RUN OF THE RACE (in contrast to being 3w last time) and if ridden intelligently on a moderate tempo will prove the one to run down. I think she is the main danger and definetly worth saving on.
Of the rest of them THE CONQUEROR and the sydney trained duo must be respected FILLE VELAINE (O SHEA:but also gets back & has to give 2kg to Deciever and DERALON (WATERHOUSE: but hard to gauge on mixed barrier trial form and weakish debut).
The best ruffie could be the bottom weight n12- UNINVITED who may be ready to peak 3rd up and this lightly raced gelding has an interesting formline as he was only beaten 2.8 by LASER HAWK at Gosford last prep. Mind you he was safely held by OUR BRIGHTEST STAR & STEINBERG last start but will strip fitter and has the advantage of the inside gate.
In summary happy to be on DECEIVER but with some reservations. Wouldn't want to get to involved if under 2.8, so hoping it opens 3.5 and looking to trade it as it firms.
Will be saving on OUR BRIGHTEST STAR as its the main danger and because it will be on tempo having a saver on it provides some insurance if a sluggish pace reduces DECIEVERS chances of sprinting home over the top of them.

Best bet of the day? 3mth ago

Morphettville r7 n3 CELEBRITY GIRL Rodd's prescence in morphettville a positive indicator

Whilst no fancy odds Celebrity Girl should be ready to add to her unbeaten first record in
Adelaide today. Rodd only has 2 rides at the ville and must have got a good reason to give up rides at Caulfield.

(scabbed an odds onnie last night, new shitty stats: 31 bets 9 wins return 25.7 units)

Best bet of the day? 3mth ago

Moonee r4 n2 KULGRINDA looks well placed after solid effort in black type company last time.

Whilst no fancy price Kulgrinda looks very hard to beat tonite at the Valley. Perhaps Mr. Caviar otherwise known as peter moody will be going for a crack at the 955 record so that he can pick up a car for himself. Kulgrinda ran a good race when run down by BEL SPIRIT (who ha been emptied on to beat Sepoy tomorrow) plus she is unbeaten when 2nd up and is a dual winner at the Valley. 1.70 is not for the faint hearted but KULGRINDA has a sufficent edge in class to warrant a crack at the short odds. Only Lady Luck can beat her!

is it true betfair average better divis than other 3mth ago

Hello aussielong.
Mate to be honest with you I don't know a lot about betfair SP. I don't have a problem with work interfering with my betting. My policy with betting is if your working then don't bet (or if u must bet then reduce stakes and just have bets that are based on a method that can show a profit at best tote, maxi div or betfair sp or whatever method that you can use whilst not working. )
When I have taken Betfair SP , I must say that I haven't been over impressed with its results, you get the occassional overs but you also get some unders.
The best way if working to get OK prices from betfair would to take the advice of josefblow which is "buy a bot". The good thing about bots is that you can program them to put a bet on the exchange at say 1 minute before the race so if you do that you will probably significantly outperform the betfair SP (but as usual the only way you can be sure is by keeping records and testing it yourself).
Once you get the "hang" of how to use a bot you could work out the most optimum times to program into your bot. You might find it more effecient to split your stake into say thirds and program the bot to place a portion of your bet at say 2 minutes before the off; then the next third at 60 seconds before the off, then the last third at 30 seconds before the off. Like anything you would have to keep records and analyse what works best for you, but if you put in the work and develop "mastery" with the bot then you will get the satisfaction of getting better returns for your bets. Like anything to do with successful punting, putting in the work is the key, as far as I know there is no easy way out.
Personally I haven't had to use bots for this purpose as I manage to avoid being at work when punting so I haven't much experience with them, but if I work commitments were getting in the way of punting then I would use a bot. I don't know which bots work the best. I think Betangel is one of the better ones.

is it true betfair average better divis than other 3mth ago

haha buzzdnb, I was betting on that last race at Townsville, talk about copping shocking unders... sometimes I reckon those in the know just go and bang on a ton of cash on the winner at the tab because they don't mind copping unders as they have access to the right inside info.
They probably have all been barred by the coporates and so have no choice but to stuff on a wad just before the jump.
I think the horse in question was POWER FACTOR, I remember it was 3.4 on betfair and 3.5 with coporates (at one stage 4.0 was bet). Couldn't believe that it paid 2.0 on NSW tab. Sure it bolted in but if you aren't in the "know" copping such unders will send you broke in the long term.
If you are serious about puning you have to be able to use betfair. Plus not only does betfair generally provide better odds (especially on "market movers") but if you can learn the art of trading you can enhance your odds even further by backing horses as they begin to firm and then laying them back as they shorten.
For example if u had 100 on Power Factor at 3.6 then laid back 90 at 3.4 you would have ended up with 260/100 (ie back 100 at 3.6) less 216/90 (ie lay 90 at 3.4) which equals 44 to 10.
But you also must take off the commision so at 5% (the top tier- the more you turnover the less comm you pay, my rate flucuates between 2.8-3). So you take 5% off 44 which is 2.2 so you end up with 41.8-10. So thats a tote div of 5.18 (and unlike the tote betfair doesn't round down and steal your 80 cents Ie the 0.08).
That sure beats copping tote odds of 2.0.

DECEIVER .... up to midweek grade in town 3mth ago

Entered for Canberra this Sunday. 17:22 Canberra r7 n6 B-64 over 1400.
Looks well placed, just got to wait for scratchings and make sure that the tempo will not be a farce.

Best bet of the day? 3mth ago

finally fluked another. Can't believe the tote carve up. wow imagine copping 1.60 on supertab when the horse was 2.4 to 2.1 on betfair, even sp was 2.1.
Well I'll chuck it in at 2.1 (need to see how much the layers of my tips are making.)
New amateur stats: 30 bets 8 winners return 24.1 units.

Best bet of the day? 3mth ago

Strathalbyn r2 n4 WHERE'S TIM ready to peak 3rd up

Lightly raced WHERE'S TIM looks placed to advantage in a moderate 1600 mdn today. Yet to miss a place in 4 goes this Niello 4yo is suited by the set weights and with the benefit of two a good hit outs under his belt this prep, the latest when just collared in a 1400 mdn, WHERE'S TIM appeals as the one to beat and is the genuine measuring stick.

Best bet of the day? 3mth 1wk ago

Wyong r1 WYNNSTAY AVENUE.... application of blinkers should see it lead throughout

Best time to back gai's horses is when their on debut. Has done enough in trials to suggest that it can flog this bunch today.

(stats of a gibberer- 29 bets 7 wins return of 22 units)

Best bet of the day? 3mth 1wk ago

Warwick Farm r7 n3 STREAMA every man and his dog to back a winner!!!

no need for one of my nonsensical explanations with this filly. Early money suggests she is ready, and there looks to be enough early pace to allow her to settle then have the last crack at them on her home track.

DECEIVER .... up to midweek grade in town 3mth 1wk ago

This Oratario half brother to Jealous Guy looked very impressive when coasting to victory in a Goluburn 55 last Friday.
The gelding was doing what many consider to be "difficult" when stepping from a maiden to harder co, but jockey Ganderton didn't look too concerned at he let the gelding drop out to last in the early stages. Some pundits began to panic and the 1.50 chance was being offered at even money past the 600, but those odds quickly disappeared as Deceiver was eased to the outside on straightening and soon rounded up the 2nd horse to win convincingly. He showed a touch of arogancy being eased down on the line without Ganderton having to do anymore with the whip than a couple of taps on the gelding's neck.
The most significant thing about the victory was the sectional time where the last 600 of 35.74 was clearly quicker than the other 1200m plus races on the day. Excluding the two maidens run at the 1000; the next fastest final 600, being 36.21 was recorded in the other 55 (please note: that race was 100m shorter than decievers !!!) so not only did Deceiver's 55 come home 3 lengths quicker, but DECEIVER CAME FROM LAST!!! So he must have run a VERY FAST LAST 600 indeed. Furthermore the quality or if you like the "genuineness" of the sectional is given more validity when u consider the winning margin of Deciever 1.75 by 3.25. He spread his moderate rivals right out, showing that they were incapable of matching his superior acceleration.
So despite it being at a sub-provincial track, Deciever is definetely worth strong consideration at his next couple of starts and looks well up to scoring a victory in town. (but make sure there is a likelihood of a solid tempo as a walking/ muddling pace probably would undermine him in the city).