Architecture graduate who spent all his saturdays next to his pop listening to the races........he was a shocking punter and Im not much better! Spring racing is what i live for!
My money is on VARENNA MISS here but I am also really warming to PHELAN READY.......he is absolutely flying and meets SEA SIREN 4.5kgs better for a 3.5L defeat........Also with a bit of rain predicted for friday and saturday the track should stay in the slow range which will suit him.......Speed is going to be on so watch for the backmarkers coming down the centre of the huge straight!
The obvious query is that they dont just give these sort of races away.............we have horses who have had ideal preparations and are building to a peak.......It is very hard to gauge where BUFFERING is at, at the moment due to his injury and possible lack of match fitness and that is where I am...
PIERRO will no doubt relish the 2000m of mooney valley but id doubt they would take MORE JOYOUS and PIERRO. IMO I think they should showcase the mighty mare overseas and take on FRANKEL! I dont think she would beat him but it would be a great sight! Take PIERRO to the cox as long as he comes up as a 3YO, which I am banking on that he does.......P.S. Has anyone had a big go at BLACK CAVIAR yet for the diamond jubilee? I heard we can get $1.60?
I really like TOHUNGA in this..........I went to Gosford a few week ago to watch my little horse run around who is still a bloody maiden! and I watch this TOHUNGA go round at about $1.40. He missed the kick by the best part of 8 lengths......quickly made up the ground.....then about 1000m out sprinted very quickly to the lead and went on to win the race very nicely.I said that day that he was G1 class and i have no doubt that this horse is better then Gais previous star stayer in DESCARADO! All class this thing.
I thought TATRA was a very nice run away from the winner.........caught three wide for about 300m and then worked hard to get to the lead and fought on gamely to the finish........wouldnt surprise to see him go on as a three year old
I havnt heard NIAGARA mentioned at all. I backed it off the map when it won the AJAX and then stood back last start as I didnt think it was suited at the weights and the conditions of the race. I honestly believe he is one that will eat the mud and will be steering out into the better part of the tr...
Surely ILLO is a good thing! None of these could or would go close to LUCAS CRANACH. However the barrier is a concern. FORETELLER looks the danger if ILLO gets a horror run.
Could you also take into consideration that the going is better sitting 3 wide the trip? I backed MANIGHAR because I though he might struggle with the firm track. I will happily say that if AMERICAIN gets in he wins easy. The horse is a freak and I am happy to see Moses has been sacked for good. I'd...
the top 2 are the only WFA horses in the race thus should fight it out..........quinella special
This rock hard surface is starting to really get me worried about AMERICAIN........Mosse has acknowledged numerous times before that he just dosnt let down on a firm surface and he will be giving MANIGHAR a good start...........SOUTHERN SPEED has little to no mention in this thread?
Does anyone think HAPPY ZERO can run a big race at odds?...............I have follwed this bloke since he arrived and have been waiting for him to strike a bone dry track to see his huge finish.......i think he will get his chance to charge late and at the odds is an e/w chance
I backed PIERRO last start but i cant see him winning this..........i just dont rate the EPAULETTE form........I am now actually warming to RACEWAY and NO LOOKING BACK with ASHOKAN, SAMAREADY and SNITZERLAND the dangers
he hadnt had a solid hitout all week and was scheduled for 2 in his lead up. Big gross animal like HAY LIST only needs to miss one run before he starts losing fitness swiftly. If you had a look at him afterwards he was blowing like hadnt ran in 2 years! We own a little horse that Mcnair trains and is coming back to the track this satdy and he was saying that he has now got him back to his newmarket fitness level and will hard to beat this satdy
I think PRECEDENCE is being aimed at the BMW and Im hoping he just hits the lien nicely as I think he will win it this year. I have always been a huge wrap but is one of those talented horses that needs things to be right for him to win. but when they do i think he is group 1 Capable. As for this race anyone think NIWOT is a good go in this race? He is fit and dosnt mind the sting out.......I can give alot of negatives to some of these but I find it hard for this bloke in this race
Id say you'd be looking at closer to a dead 5 by saturday if the rain completely ceases. I really think KING'S ROSE is a great bet here. I didnt think you would get those odds. She wasn't entitled to get within 3L in the newmarket over a very unfavorable 1200m and she did. From barrier 5 she will get the perfect run and I havnt seen her run a bad race yet. A horse that was unlucky not to be right in the finish in a cox plate and is flying should be shorter then $10
I reckon the 2000m might be just too short for the classy horse............ILLO is the one
I reckon SHOPAHOLIC is great odds.......beat MOSHEEN fair and square......won nicely last start.....drops in weight as long as it gets decent luck in running it just wins
C.Newitt to give SNOW COVER one of his specials and gets home in the final bounds........huge e/w odds against some horses that arent really doing much
D.Dunn had the the choice between MAMAS CHOICE and ALL TOO HARD. He can judge a 2YO.
If theres any pace here then I think SHARNEE ROSE can finish over the top of them. I think she is better then HALLE ROCKS and the 5kg weight relief from the toppy will be just enough to see her close over the top
how good was MOSHEEN! I have never been a wrap for her and took a motza home when SHOPAHOLIC knocked her off last start but she was awesome today. Going to be very hard to beat in the COOLMORE
i havnt done alot of investigation into the form of this race but does SHOPAHOLIC look way over the odds going off her last start win?........I think her last start is a massive form race with each of the place getters being way above average.........i realise SOFT SAND and ANABANDANA beat GLOWS last start who just came out and won at the valley however EMPRESS ROCK was equally if not more impressive and it was SHOPAHOLIC who knocked over her in the previous start before rallying and defeating MOSHEEN last start.................with more improvement I am close to declaring SHOPAHOLIC
I cant deny that MAMAS CHOICE looks the obvious choice to knock over the smart SAMAREADY.........However of the colts i think JIMANDO may be the one to beat and has the early gate speed to at least sit 3 wide on speed with cover........he should be outta trouble and without clutter so I like him and think he may be over the odds......
i dont think BIGELOW is hopeless.......I dont like him at the weights but his class and the form that he is coming from is very strong........
SEPOY is a huge lay IMO. Massive step up to open company where you have half a dozen sprinters that are better then those he he came up against in the Manikato. Meets these horses hopelessly at the weights and thus the massive drift. He has class this horse but no more so then a couple of others in this race who meet him much better at the weights.The lightly raced MASTER OF DESIGN gets 5kg's off the toppy and the gun run from the gun draw............I will be having a bit on it each way
there has been a huge wrap on RED RAIN throughout the carnival..........maybe the possibility of a rain affected surface will bring him into it
geeez i needed IRONSTEIN there.......was down the whole carnival and with one big go im up......ride of the carnival
again the bad barrier ruined PERGOLAS chances......the $5 the place went alright though
ATFIRSTSIGHT was always a query at the distance........the lack of pace changed the races complexion completely........those horses who may have had the advantage of being the superior stayers was somewhat taken away by the extremely slow pace through the first half of the race........
not sure MEETHAQ has any choice here but to take advantage of the inside draw.........wont be able to get outside horses from there........
i just like the GEELONG CLASSIC form and thought he was the horse who was held up at vital stages and flashed home looking for further...........i have been waiting for MANAWANUI to drift and he has considerably so I reckon theres not much confidence around that he will stay the 2500m.......and I have the speed map saying that INDUNA will drop back midfield and make a long sustained run with EAGLE COMMAND getting the right tag behind it into the race......just going for a bit of value
SAMANTHA MISS didnt stay.........MISS FINLAND didnt stay......dont even think ARAPOHO MISS stayed very well......but class will always prevail against a fairly weak bunch of battlers......they are always strung out at the end of this race because most of these will be shot by the clock tower.......she just has to settle and she wins
i reckon VARENNA MISS will run out the strong mile..........MJ seems like her prep has come to an end for me.....I know she won last start but you just got the sense that she was labouring and just wasn't 100%......Nash was very blunt in saying she isnt going very well at all............only thing that worries me is what the pattern may be doing......
the money for FORETELLER has been huge.........opened 15 straight into 9's...........i have been on him very start this prep so need to jump off now
CATAPULTED seems to have come back bigger and better this prep...........he will carry my money
MIDNIGHT MARTINI for me.......i know he has drawn badly but back up in distance suits and will run a very strong trip.......was beaten by a very smart one last start over the unsuitable 2000m