dr.whiz Forum Posts

Black Caviar - What Is Your Opinion? 1wk 2d ago

Tend to agree with Street Legal. The Euros know that the Aussie horses can sprint because they have seen Choisir and all the rest. But they don't give too much of a toss unless we start winning the L'arc and stuff. They'd be blown away if an Aussie horse won the Grand National lol.

As far as the races at Ascot this year go, can the Aussies do what the Euros did in the Melbourne cup? We only have one race they care about and they ran the first 7-8 places or something? Have we got 8 horses good enough to go there and race in G1's? I'll tell you for free that even if we do they won't be running the first 8. So before we get too puffed up calling the overseas horses B grade, we should mow the lawn in our own backyard. We can't call them B grade because BC will beat them - she is one horse. SYT was almost untouchable here remember. Has been well touched up elsewhere.

Let's face it. On recent results the Europeans have probably got us covered at every distance from a mile up. And if we took BC out of the mix they might take the scampers too.

question on how you read your form 1wk 6d ago

Just an example of some punters who made a profit everyday while ignoring any type of form assessment. Can't remember if they were following the Martingale system exactly or not.
Plenty of ways to skin a cat though.

question on how you read your form 1wk 6d ago

This is a bit off topic and not really about form assessment but it might be of interest.

Anyone can pick a winner in any sport. We only need to look at all the tea ladies winning footy tipping comps and the drunk hairdressers getting the Melbourne Cup winner to know this. So whatever (sensible) method of selection you decide to use can be fruitful so long as you apply a sensible staking plan that suits your bank. Most people see gambling as a test of skill in selecting the outcomes of events. The events are completely random and there a many different strategies, but the principles of betting remain the same - to win money. You can tip number 1 in every race in Australia and hit something like 15% winners in the long term, you can tip the home team in the footy and back winners every week. So we can find winners without even looking at the form guides.
Often the difference between winning and losing is how you use your bank. The only constant in gambling is the money. So once you find a method of selection that suits you, make sure you spend some time on organising a staking plan and a bank so you can put your plan into action with the best chance of being successful.

There was a thread doing the rounds here a few months ago where the fellas were just progressively backing the faves each day and then stopping at the first winner. One fave wins and you are in profit for the day. No form assessment or mucking around. Just circling the faves and trying to get the best prices. A pretty clear example of treating the money more importantly than the horses. Most punters wouldn't like to do this because they want "value" on all their bets and don't like taking unders, some never back faves, some never bet progressively, some won't bet blind. But most punters have never approached gambling from this viewpoint. It goes to show that focusing solely on the money/staking side of things can be a profitable approach.

NRL 2012 2wk 6d ago

Nup. Fox sports stuffing up again.

NRL 2012 2wk 6d ago

Key inclusion at number 6 for Manly today by the looks of it.

NRL 2012 2wk 6d ago

Starting to feel a bit sorry for Hindy.

how can i transfer pp money into mybetfair account 3wk 1d ago

Two step process.
First thing to do is transfer the PP money into your bank account.
Then transfer the money from your bank account into your Betfair account.

The biggest step back since Betfair was licenced 3wk 5d ago

What has changed? The corporates and Betfair were paying the turnover fee while the court case was going on and we all got the prices we got. The money was sitting frozen. Why would they offer worse prices and less products than last year when they were effectively paying the tax then? If hard punters were happy to play then, they should be happy to play now.
Now the court case is over the corporates don't have to pay lawyers, they'll make more money this year than last year. More people have accounts than last year, more mug punters. They should be stoked.

NRL 2012 3wk 6d ago

Cronulla will smoke Canberra today.

Moet & Chandon Champagne Stakes (Royal Randwick R3) 3wk 6d ago

I'm probably wrong

Moet & Chandon Champagne Stakes (Royal Randwick R3) 3wk 6d ago

Didn't dance hero win a race every season he was in work?

Black Caviar and Chan 7 Vs More Joyous and Chan 9 1mth ago

Lol....stealing wheat.

She might be facing some average competition this weekend UKsuperstar, but if her rivals in England are no better than those faced by Choisir, Takeover Target, and Miss Andretti, then the result will be the same as her other 19 (soon to be 20) starts.

Black Caviar and Chan 7 Vs More Joyous and Chan 9 1mth ago

The owners would have done their deal with SA racing for whatever costs or maybe appearance fees they could get. I assume that SA racing or Sky have done their deal with the TV mob since it's their race. Dunno about the hats and t shirts or even how many there are. Only ever seen them on the telly.

TINKLERS VENTURE 1mth 1wk ago

He certainly has plenty of options. He'll be disappointed his colt got beaten today though.

TINKLERS VENTURE 1mth 1wk ago

Tinkler doesn't like being thought of as a fool. He is happy to throw money around, losing money doesnt bother him at all. This idea that he is only happy when money is coming into his pockets is wrong, especially with tiny businesses like the Knights and Jets. He has plenty coming in from other places - on monday he is going to let one of his companies be taken over and he will gain 20% of the $5.1 billion new entity. He is also being sued by a former employee for $190 million. So losing a couple of bucks on a ball game is no concern. The reason is that for a bloke like him you cant lose money in Australian sport. He has lost $12 million through the Jets - thats just interest on his credit card. He has openly said that he expects he will lose money on the Knights. Not sure about that though. He has poured hundreds of millions into Patinack with little return so far (although that may start to change around 3pm this arvo). He has got his fingers into plenty of sporting pies in the Hunter region with zero chance of getting a return.
It is the other projects in the Hunter region that he has talked up as being good for the community and then piked out due to the commercial reality. He was talking about spending $600 million on a chunk of the ailing CBD but pulled out. The money he puts into league and soccer is chicken feed.

Some sceptics are saying that the only reason he has sort of taken the town under his wing was to get his whopping great big coal loader approved. It got knocked back, and soon after the Jets dissapeared.

This A League drama has nothing to do with money. As far as Tinkler is concerned, Edwards, Culina x 2, and Lowy can all go and choke on one for making Nathan look like a stupid rich kid. Wouldn't matter if it was a dollar or a billion.

Best Roughie(s) Of The Day ?? 1mth 1wk ago

Syd race 2/5
WA race 6/5

MANIGHAR V AMERICAIN. 1mth 2wk ago

Not sure if the ownership shares the view of Hayes re Mosse getting another ride. They are of the opinion he stewed it in the Melbourne Cup and again last week.

LIVE BLOG 1mth 2wk ago

Bugger

LIVE BLOG 1mth 2wk ago

Princess Janna. Go you good thing.

LIVE BLOG 1mth 2wk ago

Very ugly at the end there Danny.

The Daily Telegraph George Ryder Stakes (Rosehill Gardens R8) 1mth 2wk ago

Might follow the king here. EW all day.

The Official Golden Slipper Thread 1mth 2wk ago

Samaready first, then a bit of daylight, with Driefontein and No Looking Back to fight out the minors.

LIVE BLOG 1mth 2wk ago

Moreira has a solid enough set of rides today. As usual.

DOUBTFILLY WILL PLACE OR FINISH TOP 5 TRUE...... 1mth 3wk ago

Surprise who?

Wlliam Pike 1mth 3wk ago

Hasn't he already ridden over there?

2yo racing great or greed 1mth 3wk ago

Should add that I love the slipper but it's true that the carrot leads many to push horses further than they should.

2yo racing great or greed 1mth 3wk ago

Pretty sure that after the RSPCA and co get jumps racing banned they will move their attention onto 2yo racing, and then to getting all racing banned. No need to restrict the question to 2yo racing. Much of the general public have vastly different views on the sport to punters hanging around here.

I'd sooner ignore them, not fuel their flames, and just enjoy the game.

ps Funny thing about Coles and Woolies is that the customers think they are too expensive while the suppliers think they sell products too cheap. They can't both be right lol.

good punting

will black cavier race again in Australia? 1mth 4wk ago

We need someone to put some $5 million races on and we can see the best from around the world come here instead of the other way. The only carrot we have is the Melbourne Cup and it is for a particular type of horse.
It would be cool if the sheik sent his best sprinters and middle distance horses over here for the Sydney or Melbourne carnival and not just the cups horses.

LIVE BLOG 2mth ago

Surround12 - Only what was on the net this morning. She was in a serious but stable condition. No other info was around other than she appears to have some leg injuries and was flown to Melbourne.

Wishing her and her family the best.

LIVE BLOG 2mth ago

Red Tracer and Steps In Time

LIVE BLOG 2mth ago

2, 4, 13 in no particular order for the Ranvet

NRL 2012 2mth 1wk ago

I like it when Hindmarsh tells the truth. It's far more interesting than the usual beige stuff we hear. Far more important what Kearney says behind closed doors than what he does in a media conference. Although at the moment whatever he is doing and saying isn't working.

NRL 2012 2mth 1wk ago

Go the Panthers this arvo. And Raiders. And just watch the game of the round from NZ.

NRL 2012 2mth 1wk ago

You were right. Kearney has found a way to screw it up.

strike rates 2mth 1wk ago

If the person with a forty nine percent SR on $2 shots uses a progressive staking plan then they can print their own money. They couldn't lose in the long term unless they tried to.

Is anybody really doing any good at HONG KONG? 2mth 1wk ago

Is Vernon's website up and running yet?

Australian Cup 2mth 2wk ago

Another reason would be that it sounds like a bit of fun, too. Go over there, kick some arse, bring home a trophy. Some people have been to Melbourne a thousand times and never seen Ascot. Pretty sure that's why Freedman took Miss Andretti overseas.

LIVE BLOG 2mth 2wk ago

Get what you can - it wins I reckon.

tom waterhouse has shut me down 3mth 3wk ago

They were hanging around here but moved on in favour of the tweet world.

tom waterhouse has shut me down 3mth 3wk ago

LAYTHEMASSES, those boys on Twitter have moved on. They are now playing with Neil Evans and Centrebet.

Jockey`s Tweeting,,,, not a good look !!!!! 4mth ago

Haha. And we still get to hear them every morning on the tv and radio explaining how they'll try to ride them.

Jockey`s Tweeting,,,, not a good look !!!!! 4mth ago

Who were the jocks tweeting? And did they follow the riding plans that they tweeted?

Jockey`s Tweeting,,,, not a good look !!!!! 4mth ago

Pretty sure the jocks aren't allowed their phones in the rooms either. That was one of the things Danny Nikolic has had troubles with.

Australia vs India Test series 4mth 2wk ago

Good to see the wicket get a little extra "moisture" last night lol.

Australia vs India Test series 4mth 2wk ago

They spent some time on the first morning in Melb talking about Ed Cowans SR. Quite some time. It reflects a batsmens attitude to the game. Obviously if they score quickly they play lots of shots and therefore run a higher risk of getting out. Openers are meant to minimise risks, not maximise them. Scoring rates will naturally increase as batsmen get set, bowlers get tired, the ball gets old, and the wicket gets flat. I'd like Warner to hang around long enough to take advantage of that. He has done it once so far, ironically on the most difficult wicket he has seen.

If Warner is good enough to play 50 or 100 test matches and equal his first class stats then good luck to him, it will be a great career. But the stats say it is damn hard and a rare feat.

Those first class stats you quoted for Warner theJugada - how many of those runs we're made opening the batting? I know that Warner was at least the 4th choice opener for NSW after Hughes, Katich, and Khawaja so he hasn't actually opened the batting very often at a high level. Nick Maddison has also opened the batting for NSW over the last 2 seasons. Warner has spent quite some time at number 6. It's a different world down there with different responsibilities.
Another representation of his test stats other than saying he has 4 matches @ 40 is to say that he has passed 50 once in 7 innings and if we take out the not out century he has 80 runs @ 16. His job is to get a start and protect the middle order - he has done that once or maybe twice in 7 bats, 6 if we discard the 2nd innings in Bris. The innings in Hobart was brilliant, he has essentially failed in every other innings.

I'd love to see him make 100 before lunch in Perth but I know it is far more likely he will go hard at the wrong ball or play an average defensive shot while he is in single figures. We all know that.

LAY OF THE DAY 4mth 3wk ago

And for sure the faves under $2 win more than the faves over $3 s thee might be something in looking at each end of the scale. Where's Plugga?

LAY OF THE DAY 4mth 3wk ago

I think the average price for a fave is about $3 and they win about 30% of races. That's 10% profit for the layers. If you do it progressively you are in profit every collect.
Better yet, look at some tracks with overall poor records for faves and lay them all. The horses are irrelevant, we win money not horses lol. From memory the faves in WA go well but struggle a bit in SA. Of course if you do the form well you can dodge the strong faves and concentrate on the weak ones.
Might do some paper trading tomorrow and see how we go........

Australia vs India Test series 4mth 3wk ago

I'd be surprised if some of the aggressive openers pre 20/20 like Slater and Hayden had SR's much over 50 or 55. Tubby, Boonie, and G Marsh certainly didn't. Sehwag is one out the box. It's all well and good to appreciate the attacking skills of Warner and any attacking opener plus their ability to change or set up a game in a session. But those good openers have scored plenty of their runs in the second session of their innings, not the first.

I just think that with Warner playing the way he does and Marsh giving us his current contribution, we are an even bet to be either 0/100 at lunch or 2/8 after 2 overs. We were 3/37 after 8 overs in Syd, I'd rather be 0/4.

Australia vs India Test series 4mth 3wk ago

I said that Warner had a style that was a merger of Haddin and Hughes, I dont think i said they had the same technique. Nobody has a technique like Hughes. It's more about their approach to batting. I should've been a bit clearer.

Hughes is loose outside off stump and so is Warner. Hughes has an awful technique but Warner lacks patience, its like they cant help themselves and have to either slap at the ball or fish for it. He slapped at one he didn't need to in Melb in the 2nd dig and reached for one in Syd. It's not the end of the world because Sewhag likes slapping too. He's a bit better than these two though.......8000 @ 50. Warner's job as an opener is to bat through the first session and he'll find it hard if he lacks patience and discipline around off stump. The way he plays it looks like the score is 4/300 with an old ball, not 0/0 on the first morning.

Haddin has a thing for playing immature schoolyard cricket shots, and I suspect Warner has a bit of that in him too. Hooking the first ball after a rain break on the first morning? Tubby Taylor wouldnt do that. Haddins problem is exactly what you said - between the ears. Warner has certainly lacked patience since his hundred in Hobart. Openers do have their technique scrutinised heavily but that won't be an issue for Dave if he keeps getting out in the first 10-20 overs cutting and hooking. He'll have shown he doesn't have the attitude to open. I'm pretty sure he has made plenty of his runs for NSW in the middle order, maybe he is more a Douggie Walters than a Sewhag?

It's ok to let a few go in the first hour. Someone wrote earlier that it is better to take a safe single than a risky boundary. Spot on. If you are 0/50 at lunch you should get 300 for the day. Much harder when you are 3/90 at the long break.

LAY OF THE DAY 4mth 3wk ago

*should say layed them progressively