Whiteknight
When all parts of the puzzle, start to look like they fit
Then I must remember, there'll be days like this.
Van Morrison 1995. updated 2yr 7mth ago.
Basic Information | |
| Hometown | Wollongong, NSW, Australia |
| Local Track | Kembla Grange  |
Personal Information | |
| Favourite Horse | Super Impose / Lonhro |
| Favourite Jockey | Greg Hall / Darren Beadman |
| Favourite Trainer | John Size (please come back to Oz!!) |
| Best Racing Moment | Super Impose's blockbusting Randwick mile wins...and a Cox Plate down south just for good measure! Winning the 2009 June tipping comp provided some personal satisfaction as it confirmed a few thoughts that I've held for some time on racing philosophy. |
| About Me | I once heard a professional punter say that his occupation required a 20 year apprenticeship. I laughed when I first heard this...but I believe there's much truth to the comment. In my opinion, the psychological side of punting - from information processing through to bet execution - is often underestimated or understated by the population at large and even within the wagering community. |
Punting Information | |
| Tipping Strategy | Am back again after a 6 month spell! As Aussie racing heads into the doldrums of winter and is plagued by uneven wet tracks and a general lack of quality horseflesh, there are plenty of punters who have commented how difficult it is to make money in winter - given the choppy nature of form and increased number of variables. To challenge that notion, I've specifically targetted the traditional dodgy racing months of June and July. I expect to produce a win strike rate which exceeds that of SP favourites...and aim to provide an acceptable POT in the process. Selections will usually be available on Wednesdays, Saturdays and Public Hols...with other days occasionally represented. I won last years June tipping comp by deliberately entering into the 'high risk/high price' end of the market. The first prize was a nice reward for a significant amount of study and prework. This time around, I will place a strong emphasis on horses 'in the market' so to speak - to again confirm my own racing philosophy during a notoriously difficult time of year. I am very confident of achieving (and maintaining) good profitable returns over this time period. Selections will commence on 26th May and at this stage will only be made available until the end of winter. [Nb. as at 22/08/10...110 selections for a 37% Win strike rate and 24% POT. On track as predicted.] |
| Betting Strategy | If everything looks right for a likely winning performance of a selection - and it is at surprisingly good odds - then back yourself to be correct in your own assessment. Betting at "top fluctuation" is always preferable if a selection is well in the market....however if bookmaker percentages at any venue are constantly uncompetitive (ie. up towards 130% and beyond) then common sense dictates that it may be better under these circumstances to bet with Betfair or at "best tote". Longer priced selections above the 7/1 to 9/1 range will mostly be better off at 'best tote'. Betfair may still be viable at elevated odds - especially on days of higher liquidity. It just depends on how much you want to get set for...and you will probably need to break your total bet down and progressively enter it in smaller increments. (There are bots out there that can assist with this scenario). It can be a time consuming process though if you do it manually...whereas best tote/top fluc/Betfair SP are one stop shops which leaves time for other pursuits. At the end of the day, to achieve the highest possible return on winners it boils down to how keen the punter is - and how much time they have at their disposal to dedicate to the task. I am more than happy to hear from anyone who possesses representative data for a comparison between Betfair SP (at current liquidity levels) and best tote (at various price ranges) for Aussie metropolitan racing...or have reached their own conclusions on this topic. |
| Favourite Betting Agency | |
| Average Bet Amount | |
| Biggest Win Amount | $35,000 |
Boring Statistics | |
| Profile Visits | 2210 |
| Forum Posts | 191 |
