Whiteknight Forum Posts

I.T problem 1yr 10mth ago

Thanks to floydyboy, Runny, cmj, philone and xball for your suggestions and general feedback here. Much appreciated.

I.T problem 1yr 10mth ago

Thanks for the further responses floydyboy and cmj. After reading extensively of other cases that sound almost identical to my own (ie. spam being sent to all contacts in the address book), the suggestion was almost always the same. That is was vital to strengthen the password. It seems unclear how the password was deciphered in the first place...but anyone using hotmail exclusively as their email account (like me) should be aware that it's probably only a matter of time that a password like punter1 (mine wasn't even a proper word with added numerals as well) will put your account at risk of hijacking by spammers. A popular spam along these lines is to send a message out to all of your contacts with some bulls*** story that you're stuck somewhere with no money (perhaps after being mugged / robbed) and can they send money to a particular address/account to see you through. Of course any money then disappears into a black hole....just like I have no doubt that a concocted website for cheap iphones is probably the same.

If someone has your email address...and given there are progams out there designed for password detection, then it is probably no wonder that accounts can get hijacked by spammers, where they have the added benefit of authenticity from the recipient's perspective. From what I can determine, hotmail accounts in particular seem to be quite vulnerable, but other providers don't neccessarily escape from this phenomenon either. Hopefully a bit more attention to detail on my behalf will help keep this issue at bay.

I.T problem 1yr 10mth ago

Thanks Floydyboy and Runny for your input. Should have also mentioned that there is always a copy of the rogue email left in the 'sent' box...so the stuff being sent out does appear to be generated thru my email account. Can't say I know a lot about this type of stuff though, hence the original question. Like you Floydyboy, I am very careful about what I open. For my own knowledge, I'm trying to work out how it's occurring so I can best determine what the next best step is to take. Any further input is welcome.

I.T problem 1yr 10mth ago

Apologies to the off-topic nature of the post but since we're all internet dependent, thought I would share it so i can get to the bottom of the problem. I thought the problem I had was virus related but that doesn't appear to be the case.

My email account is being hijacked to send out emails to everyone in my address book, supposedly recommending a (more than likely bogus) website for cheap iphones. Says I have bought one from them and find them really good to deal with etc etc. Complete and utter codswallop and despite having the latest anti-virus software/spyware this continues. The only way I become aware of it, is if friends question me on it, or if it is rejected from an address with a good firewall, the rebounded email ends up back in my inbox.

Wondering if anyone else has had this problem, and how they overcame it without changing email addresses. Looking for a viable solution as I'm totally p***** off and perplexed by it.

Horse meat... coming soon to a table near you. 1yr 10mth ago

Dr Whiz...The French are ahead of themselves. Go into any supermarket over there and the beef looks ordinary. Plenty of cheval on offer though. No capacity fields over there! :-)

Central Coast Holden Takeover Target Stakes (Gosford R7) 1yr 11mth ago

TJ...hard to say whether he actually knew there was a fall at that point. Heard someone gave him a spray after the line though...who did that come from?

Central Coast Holden Takeover Target Stakes (Gosford R7) 1yr 11mth ago

Gartman...not to mention NR has won this race previously back in 07 carrying 58kg. History has a habit of repeating at good odds...just look at the Stradbroke winner! He's not getting any younger though and he seemed to struggle last year in similar conditions. Looks a reasonable field, think there'd be a touch of irony if the old boy won...given this race was named after a steed that was still winning races at around the same age. Hope he can run a good race for you.

Unders Calculation 1yr 11mth ago

Lyfsabuz..."unders" is simply a term to represent under the odds....relative to a horses "true odds". How people come up with what they believe are true odds of any given horse will vary widely from punter to punter...and what variables they consider significant to the final outcome...but don't expect anyone who does it successfully to simply give their formula away. Don Scott had a method where he rated different class races in kilograms and also converted every variable important to him into kilograms (wide runs, jockey ability etc). He then added or subtracted to come up with a final weight rating for every horse in a future race. He then converted these weight ratings into odds at a market percentage of 85% or 90%...therefore having what he believed were a set of value odds on all runners. He and his team would only bet whenever the price available was higher than his calculated price...and therefore never bet on "unders". I'm definitely not advocating Scott's methods, but make it an example of how one person did it by applying mathematics to a horses history and to variables of racing.

JUSTICE PERRAM RULES! 1yr 11mth ago

"Somehow it seemed the farm had got richer without making the animals themselves any richer - except of course for the pigs and the dogs"

"All animals are equal...but some animals are more equal than others"

Extracts from George Orwell's 1945 novel Animal Farm.

SPORTS BETTING MULTIS THREAD 2010 1yr 11mth ago

Not the most ideal start M&P, that's for sure. The BF winner market has reacted quite quickly...$4.50 out to $6.40 and will probably drift further. Yet they are still the favourite to qualify in their Group. Goes to show how markets react to new information...

JUSTICE PERRAM RULES! 1yr 11mth ago

DJ...And it isn't quite so. Looking into this further, all is not what it initially appears. RNSW rolled the dice. The challenge from Betfair about the turnover fee was rejected by the judge. The 1.5% turnover fee and the principle behind it appears to have been validated by the judge. Betfair claimed such a fee discriminated against them. That notion appears to have been rejected. At face value, you would have to say that's a win for RNSW despite the decision being up for appeal. From what I can see, the only sticking point was a submission from Sportsbet who claimed the playing field was not equal with other parties and as such the judge found in favour of Sportsbet who were awarded $2M of repayments due to other historical precedents. While that may put a hole in revenue collected thus far, the fact RNSW can operate a turnover fee, even with thresholds in place, seems like they may have dodged an almightly bullet. The worst possible outcome for RNSW would have been for the entire turnover fee to be declared discriminatory across the whole gambit of operators. That doesn't seem to be the case. So no heads on plates at this stage...and no fossilisation is evident at this point. Not sure we've heard the last of the legal arguments though.

JUSTICE PERRAM RULES! 1yr 11mth ago

Well blow me down! I haven't read the full story yet DJ but if it is true as stated then the outcome is what one gets when looking at the world in one dimension, paint yourself into a corner, dig yourself a hole in the kitty litter, then put your head into it. No wonder such a world appears grey and bleak.

No point in asking for any head on a plate though..as exhibit A seems firmly stuck where it is and may be now fossilised.

Now tell me the story isn't so...

And dare I ask for a Plan B ???...yep!...drive one's head in further. That'll fix it.

But like I said DJ...please tell me this just isn't so!!....

SPORTS BETTING MULTIS THREAD 2010 1yr 11mth ago

Here are the current rankings for England's goalkeeper.
1. Phil Tufnell
2. Calamity James
3. Robert Green
4. Alan Knott.

The 64yo is still a chance here...proven professional, can catch and pick up the low ones. Not sure about the top three. But that's never been a prerequisite either!

Can't believe how relatively short England are to take out the whole thing!

Anyway, back to the topic.
World Cup winner: Spain - NRL Grand Final winner: StG-Illawarra Dragons
World Cup winner: Argentina - NRL Grand Final winner: StG-Illawarra Dragons.

Probably better to operate the double manually through Betfair. 1st leg current prices $4.50 and $7.80 respectively...any 1st leg proceeds go into the 2nd leg on July 12. Double approximates $16.40 and $28.47 respectively at current prices but may change due to possible 2nd leg flucs.

sorry 1yr 11mth ago

see 'Making A Living' thread

sorry 1yr 11mth ago

see 'Making A Living' thread

making a living? 1yr 11mth ago

Bev...you don't have to apologise and you don't have to start a new thread for ongoing posts on the topic you started. If you read again the questions you posed then you may see the light. If you are paying for groceries out of betting profits like you suggest on your wall then you are doing well and probably don't need anyone's help or advice....or know what others are doing. And that would put you in the 5% group of punters that can do it. How many other people that fall into that category are on this site, well I couldn't say. I'm not sure how you reasonably expect anyone to answer your 2nd question without knowing what your budget is...or grocery bill for that matter. Or how you might manage a run of outs and go three consecutive weeks without winning. Go hungry?? If you've got a 9-5 job to support this then that's great. You don't necessarily have to be a professional punter though to conduct your betting in a professional manner...irrespective of one's budget.

Your questions haven't and don't annoy me...far from it...so you don't have to repeat that it does by starting other threads. I must say though, there'a a degree of naievity within those question that I find hard to believe. If you've been punting a while, you will know by the way numbers fall, is they do not fall in a linear fashion. It is never a straight line and a 10% pot (or any pot for that matter) will consist of twists and turns along the way. The comment "a consistent weekly sum to pay for the groceries" is naive in that it suggests an amount going weekly into your account...just like a paypacket does. If that is your thinking then you need to challenge that thinking. Unless of course you are already eating off the horses back in which case all of the above might be irrelevent. Regards, WK.

making a living? 1yr 11mth ago

Bev...your question probably seems innocent and sincere enough...unless of course you're lurking from the Australian Taxation Office. Generally, do you normally ask people how much they earn?

Channel Seven Queensland Derby Three-years-old Plate (Eagle Farm R2) 1yr 11mth ago

Thanks for the track/weather update Runny. Hard to line up the midweek B graders, but Payne's horse had a pretty good sprint at the end of 2200m. He did get a cart into the race before the turn which helped, but the win was very soft. +++ Think there's enough Derby winners to have won the Rough Habit, which warrants a second look at the NZ'er that's drawn out in the sticks and back on the dry +++ Then there's Bart...the Savabeel colt out of a Balmerino mare appears to be coming good at the right time...whilst everyone would be all over the Oaks favourite had she saluted instead of staying put. Mmmm...there's the boxed first four...more work required to determine which one is likely to stick it's head out. :-)

Channel Seven Queensland Derby Three-years-old Plate (Eagle Farm R2) 1yr 11mth ago

How's the track and weather shaping up for the w/end up there?

LAY OF THE DAY 2 1yr 11mth ago

Try again...
Current lays 4/5...1.65. One payout last Sat, Altitude @ $3.35 BFSP.

Todays lays
SR4 Skytrain (very short and may still win, not sure he's a total miserre here though)
BR8 Stryker (~ $6 in some quarters, think others are more genuine in a hot race)
MR6 Kallogg (2nd fav, would love to own him, think may struggle with today's variables)

LAY OF THE DAY 2 1yr 12mth ago

Thought I'd have a crack at a few lays that appear close to favouritism in their respective races.
BR2 Monton
SR8 Kas Kura
MR7 Pink Shimmer
MR8 Altitude
AR8 Ooleo

What's the deal with no fixed odds for Hillside? 2yr 5mth ago

Well done Met for finding a winner at nice odds. My reason for comparing was to see where they stood from a percentage perspective. Fixed odds markets are entitled to be way more competitive than 143% with 8 minutes remaining to the jump.

What's the deal with no fixed odds for Hillside? 2yr 5mth ago

Yesterday I decided to check to see what percentages the TAB fixed odds operated at for typical midweek fare. I randomly chose the last race at Seymour - a ratings 62 hcp. Bare in mind this wasn't a market put up 24hrs ahead of the race...it was a fixed odds market that they run in parallel with their normal tote market in the last 20 minutes before the jump. I took five snapshots at different times. They were taken at 16 mins before the race, 12 min, 7.5mins, 30 seconds and their final closing market. Here are the sobering results:-

16mins: 195.61% (good grief!!!!)
12mins: 148.66%
7.5mins: 143.72%
30 secs: 129.25%
Final closing market: 126.12%

Given that a normal pari-mutuel market operates at around 117% then it's hardly earth shattering. Their early (or opening) market in this snapshot is downright insulting. A cynic might even suggest there are late movements in the last few seconds before close to sweeten the percentage.

If this is a representative sample (after all it's only one race taken of a Tuesday arvo) then be very careful of fixed odds unless you can be totally sure you're getting an edge.

EXTRA EXTRA 2yr 5mth ago

Doctor...I have great empathy for battling jockeys and particularly for those who are given instructions that are basically a low percentage play (a midfielder "looking for cover" when they've drawn the widest marble). Certainly he's stuck between a rock and a hard place. I would have thought it not unreasonable for your example battling jockey (10 rides/week) to respond to such instructions with "what would you like me to do if it becomes clear that no cover will be found?". I guess it takes confidence to say that.

An invisible problem for the battling jockey is that other racing people are still watching races closely...and 99% of them are not privvy to the instructions given in the mounting yard. But opinions on rides are still harvested and formed. As much as the jockey doesn't want to earn a reputation for not following instructions... they also don't want to earn a reputation in the eyes of others of not being capable of making a decision as needed. If that happens, then it seems unlikely his rides will ever exceed 10 per week. With such little upside, the battler in effect partly seals his own fate.

EXTRA EXTRA 2yr 5mth ago

Doctor...just trying to understand bush politics. A battling jockey that's drawn 15 alley in a field of 16 on a horse that normally settles in midfield... (1) takes his horse to the front or snags it back to the tail in an effort to avoid a wide run is considered brave and stupid...or (2) if content to make no decisions and sit there 5 wide like a rabbit staring into the headlights and become easy roadkill - then he is endorsed?? So in scenario (1) the connections blame the jockey for the defeat whereas in scenario (2) the connections blame the alley??

EXTRA EXTRA 2yr 5mth ago

Steve...your point yesterday @ 1.37pm "being wide is just an excuse for a poorly performed horse" well if that was true then the barrier stats would be almost the same across the board. We know there is a significant winning barrier bias at most tracks with turns when you start looking outside the first half a dozen barriers. Given that all horses abililities are evenly distributed across all barriers (ie. the barrier draw is a truly randomised event) it suggests those tracking a wide path are statistically worse off. Even Scott recognised this statistical anomaly and tried to put a figure on it. It's not only poorly performed horses that suffer at the misfortune of a wide run.

EXTRA EXTRA 2yr 5mth ago

Indeed, a horse 3 back on the rail will have a double whammy advantage in that it will have cover from the wind AND a slipstream effect...as opposed to the same race with no wind where it will simply have the slipstream effect. Putting the physics aside, a leader into a strong wind must be greatly disadvantaged relative to the others with a trail - in terms of energy used. I suspect that followers of the Scott weight ratings make no kg allowance for this scenario at the leaders next start. Certainly the man himself wouldn't have...photos or videos won't reveal it unless there's a windsock in the background! :-)

EXTRA EXTRA 2yr 5mth ago

Ubid and Steve...do you not think that a 40km/hr wind plays no role in the outcome of races up the Flemington straight if the grandstand is shielding one side of the track? What about a noted leader at another track that is due to run into a 30km/hr headwind in the straight. Seems illogical to me that some punters are right into measuring and accounting certain variables to the 2nd decimal place then go and ignore other variables as if they don't exist! The fact that it is difficult to measure it's effect certainly doesn't make it irrelevent. It's just that most people tend to put it in the too hard basket. Anyway, that wasn't my intention when mentioning this variable...the example I gave sought to keep all other variables identical (which included wind) of two horses running 5 wide in separate races run at different tempos.

EXTRA EXTRA 2yr 5mth ago

Thought I'd throw in a hand grenade. A horse sits 5 wide around a turn in a big field at very high cruising speed. At the same track and distance and under the same conditions (including wind speed)another horse sits 5 wide around the same turn but at virtual a trackwork gallop. Furthermore one may have cover whilst the other may face the breeze. Both horses have covered exactly the same distance yet one of them is likely to have a tougher run than the other.

Should both runs be compensated the same in kgs?? If not then what is the compensation differential?

There's no doubt that Don Scott was way ahead of his time when he first brought his mathematical and scientific approach to punting. Before his untimely passing, it is my belief even he found the game a very tough one to keep ahead of. I'm not sure he passed on as a very rich man...certainly not like he would have been at the height of his Legal Eagles syndicate. But this opinion is a subjective one.

I'm not sure how fruitful it is to try and measure something in isolation when there are other variables at play that impacts on such a measurement and it's accuracy in the overall scheme of things. Both horses may well have covered 14.7349m of extra ground. But given the beaten margins on both horses are likely to be totally different... then the weight ratings of both horses next outing is in my view unlikely to be an accurate one...even with an attempt to place some kind of compensating estimate.

Good topic.

Devonport 2yr 5mth ago

Thanks for that Kagan...usually the eastern state tabs don't pass up an opportunity...especially if there's enough interest to bet fixed odds on one of their races.

Devonport 2yr 5mth ago

Anyone got any ideas what's happened to this meeting today as it's disappeared off the radar on most betting agencies. is it abandoned?? I see NSW still has a fixed odds market for race 5 but that market has been suspended.

FRONT PHOTO 2yr 5mth ago

If it was Mr Ed then Wilbur would also be in the picture - copping a verbal :-)

Roy Jones jr vs Danny Green 2yr 5mth ago

I am the first to admit I know 6/10ths of bugger all in relation to boxing, but I watched the fight last night with interest. Leading into the fight i thought I had read that Jones is 40 years old and Green is 35. I also believe that Anthony Mundine is 34. Is world boxing so devoid of talent that these type of guys can hold titles well into their 30's? Where is all the younger, faster, more physical talent? Good luck to Danny Green, he's probably ensured his financial future after that result but surely time must catch up with him...like it probably has with Roy Jones Jnr. Always sad to see a guy get beaten like he did last night after dominating for so long. I suspect there's only a finite number of trips to the well...and particularly so for guys in the 35-40 zone. I guess it must take a loss for them to realise it (like it did for Danny Green when he previously 'retired').

READ THE FINE PRINT........A WARNING FOR EVERYONE 2yr 5mth ago

Met...yep its an antiquated Tabcorp rule and it's high time they scrapped it...although i'm not sure whether other non Tabcorp TAB's have followed suit. Before Tabcorp took over the NSW TAB there used to be a special dividend on daily doubles and extra doubles if your first leg won and the 2nd leg was subsequently scratched. If the first leg was a late scratching then the bet would revert to a normal win bet on the 2nd leg. Not any more. All doubles (running and daily) and quaddies have this Victorian rule applied and there's nothing more galling than to be given the favourite in this situation when you've deliberately left the favourite out!

Why do they do it??...because the greedy bureaucracy can!! They don't want to refund it...they want to hang on to it as turnover! I've always had a major problem with this rule because in my view it totally changes the intent and contract of the bet. Imagine if they tried to do it on win bets as well (a horse scratched at the barrier becomes a bet on the fav). There'd be a major uproar.and rightly so!! I'm sure if they thought they could get away with it then they would! The principle is offensive and it's exactly the same through the doubles and quaddies. It's unfair, it's antiquated and treats the punter as a fool. It's about time Tabcorp scrapped it completely...or if their self interest is impossible to penetrate then the regulative authorities should step in and order them to do so. I can't imagine that will happen any time soon though and in the meantime companies like Tabcorp continue spinning the line "rules are rules".

The answer to this and to a company with it's head stuck up their date is a simple one...go elsewhere!

ETS Stakes 2yr 5mth ago

I watched this race closely today TT...the favourite was carrying plenty of weight and came into this a bit underdone. The stable has wanted Mr Arrogant to be ridden quieter for some time now but once again he got his head up and overraced...most of his energy was used up fighting the jockey. The Mad Monk only got home narrowly on the back of a fitness edge and the conditions of the race. Given the narrow margin and tactics of this race, I imagine there'll be a similar race in the future and the placings are likely to be reversed as the favourite will probably have a better preparation. Can't see today's winner graduating to better class any time soon...or even winning another race for that matter!

Punters should keep in mind that the well groomed stablemate Western Belle may provide a decent lay if an acceptor for the next race. :-)

Custodian 2yr 6mth ago

Keeps stepping up to the plate. Has worked his way quickly through the classes like only good ones do... then wins an open hcp at his 2nd attempt after being a bit unlucky up the straight on Cup Day. Feel this one may go to the very top over the shorter sprints. Would love to own him.

HALF THIS YEAR'S COX FIELD DON'T DESERVE TO RUN 2yr 7mth ago

Geez Chilli...the time honoured weight-for-age scale has been around for decades. Weight for age is exactly that (weight for "sex and age" is probably more appropriate...and the scale changes in increments according to the time of year). It's a scale that allows all ages and sexes to compete against each other on a level playing field. 3yo's have never been - and are certainly not given - the Cox Plate on a platter...history bears this out...only an extremely high level 3yo can possibly do the job. The tactics employed by horse and jockey to take the race by the scruff of the neck..well...good luck to them! To remove 3yo's from Australasia's Weight-For-Age championship would mean that it's no longer exactly that!

Sandown Race 1 protest 2yr 9mth ago

Met...thanks for that...was always intending to follow up on the stewards report...just wondered how it initially appeared to the naked eye. Given that the protest was only made after initially examining the vision, you would reasonably think that J Fry would have seen where the cause of the shift came from. Generally though, I've always felt that if a jockey needs to view race footage to determine a protest then they're already behind the eight ball...merely hoping more than anything else. He probably would have been better off just protesting without the look at the vision...it wouldn't in any way have changed the result though... but at least he could suggest he wasn't aware that the inside horse was the cause of it all. The way he went about it makes him look a bit of an idiot...as he saw the cause straight after the race yet still went through with it. I suspect the narrow margin might have blinded him of all else.

Sandown Race 1 protest 2yr 9mth ago

Due to other business, I wasn't privvy to some of the early races today...saw there was a 2nd v 1st protest in the opening race at Sandown with a nose being the margin. Am interested to hear any perspectives or opinions anyone may have in relation to it.

Muzdaher 2yr 10mth ago

Just need to keep him focussed...he's a bull after all. Should go very well provided the fillies don't capture his attention!

King Tips? Whats the deal? 2yr 10mth ago

It's just come up now...closed at 1157am.

King Tips? Whats the deal? 2yr 10mth ago

Luc...on my screen the cutoff time doesn't appear. It normally counts down. Is tipping closing at a normal 20min before the 1st race today?

Muzdaher 2yr 10mth ago

Can't see any reason why this one won't win it's fair share of races in the far north. Believe it was ex Hayes and sold for $6000...think that'll prove to be a bargain racing against some average types up there. The 5yo won first up today over a scamper in his new environment.

WET TRACKS 2yr 10mth ago

Thought there may have been more contributors to this topic given the number of people that shy away from wet tracks...especially very wet tracks.

im calling rape 2yr 10mth ago

Passiton...Sir Fussalot has won a total of 4 races and the highest he's won at is restricted level in the city...but has a placing at Group 3 level. Your horse has won a total of 8 races and the highest he's won at is at restricted level in the city...and has a placing at Listed level. Different types of restricted races admittedly, but based on that, I'm not sure you could say there's lightyears between the two horses that deserves a massive weight differential.

WET TRACKS 2yr 10mth ago

Once again Plugger...an insightful aspect...this time on the subject matter of wet tracks. Is this piece your own prose or referenced from another source? Either way, I think there's much to be learned from such words. But like most things in life, one can learn much more from those that disagree with us...as opposed with those that agree. It interests me to hear from those that don't bet on wet tracks - and why they don't - particularly on heavy tracks. What is it about a heavy track that sends some people to the bar in lieu of the betting ring?

im calling rape 2yr 10mth ago

ps. Beth Honeysett on?...couldn't you convince Brendan to make the trip??

im calling rape 2yr 10mth ago

Pray for rain mate...and you might be very pleasantly surprised!

TYPHOON ZED 2yr 10mth ago

Plugger...beautifully written expose/interpretation on weight there sir (back on 17th July). In particular I think you're entitled to highlight points #2 and #3 of your summary...with point #3 in CAPITALS. I firmly believe that never has a truer word been spoken. Well done indeed for your input and effort as it would have taken a long time to write that and I hope others are just as appreciative of someone willing to share their thoughts like this in such an exhaustive manner.

For anyone new to punting looking for a starting point but not knowing where to begin then I implore you to print that section out...and let it be essential reading many times over to fully digest the substance and depth of what has been said on weight.

betfair 2yr 10mth ago

Thanx for that Kagan...will look closer at the extras...including the info generated from the Betfair Advantage Tool (BAT).