Molanski13 Forum Posts

Black Caviar - What Is Your Opinion? 1wk 2d ago

Fantana, I reckon you could even go a bit deeper than that. Let's remember what Ortensia did at Dubai after all and what has she done here. I suspect that even horses like Lone Rock, Pierro, Beaded, Woorim, Master of Design etc. at their best would be very good chances in the G1 sprints over there. We simply have exceptional depth in our sprinting ranks over here when you think about. Don't forget that Scenic Blast ran second in a group 1 here on the weekend and he has already won one of the best sprints in England!

Raping and Pillaging.......... 2wk 2d ago

Not sure you can really play Fletcher at CHB, hasn't played key position for about ten years! Deledio is definitely a half back flanker these days and I couldn't possibly have Cornes or Nahas in my best team. Nahas has been hopeless except for one game.

B: G. Johncock (ADEL) J. Frawley (MELB) D. Grimes (RICH)
HB: B. Deledio (RICH) L. Henderson (CARL) B. Goddard (STK)
C: T. Cotchin (RICH) R. Griffin (WB) B. Stanton (ESS)
HF: N. Fyfe (FRE) T. Cloke (COL) D. Martin (RICH)
F: G. Ablett (GC) B. Franklin (HAW) J. Cameron (GWS)
RKS: D. Cox (WCE) J. Kennedy (SYD) J. Selwood (GEE)
INT: I. Maric (RICH) D. Wells (NM) T. Rockliff (BRIS)
SUB: D. Rodan (PA)

Black Caviar - What Is Your Opinion? 2wk 2d ago

I suspect we will see Black Caviar extended back up to 1400 and beyond next Autumn. Obviously she will go to England then I suspect she'll go to Asia in December. Then there'll be nothing left for her and there are more and more well respected commentators saying that a Cox Plate attempt in 2013 is not out of the question. I'd love to see it. As for Atlantic Jewel, I was super impressed by her first run in the Autumn, although Mid Summer Music ran second I believe so that's not exactly genuine group 1 company, but her second up run for mine was nothing overly special. I realise horses can be a bit flat second up after a long spell and that may have been the reason but on that second run she'd still be a long way off Black Caviar.

question on how you read your form 2wk 2d ago

Like some have touched on above, I think the key is time. I have been following racing closely, I have followed it to some extent for most of my life due to family loving the sport, but really following it closely for about five years and I am really only just working out my own systems now. I find it's about involving yourself in the sport, when you go to the races have a look around the stables and try and meet people who have been around racing or going to the races for years. If you do these things you'll slowly pick up little bits of knowledge and you start learning who to listen to and you'll also come to love the sport not just for the punt but for numerous other reasons. As said above, don't bet on every race, you can learn a lot by watching, I've had days when I've gone to the races and had 1 or 2 bets (drunk about 30 cans admittedly) but nonetheless.

Tabcorp Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Royal Randwick R7) 3wk 6d ago

Yeah I suspect it will be a good Cox Plate and that means probably high pressure. More Joyous, Pierro (assuming he comes up as a 3 year old obviously which is no certainty), Manighar, Mosheen, Atlantic Jewel, Jimmy Choux, Rekindled Interest, Metal Bender, Rangirangdoo.

Schweppes Sydney Cup (Royal Randwick R6) 3wk 6d ago

That was nearly one for the idiots boys! Niwot was always going to be the toughest to beat so not bad quinella. Anyone know what the plan with Efficient is now? Is he headed for the retirement village?

Lay of the Century! 4wk ago

Street, last time I checked the trainer generally decides what races his or her horses run in. You're basically saying 'don't blame Hayes, blame the idiot putting Americain in these races'...they are the same person. Hayes hasn't been a good trainer for ten years. Agree with Plugga, cannot believe or understand them giving Americain to Hayes when the likes of Pat Carey, Bart Cummings, Mike Moroney etc. have training licenses. Whoever made that decision needs their head read.

Tabcorp Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Royal Randwick R7) 4wk ago

Can all those who have refused to listen please repeat after me: 'David Hayes has ruined Americain', one more time: 'David Hayes has ruined Americain'.
More Joyous has just had an extraordinary campaign. I thought she was absolutely no hope today. The first prep where she has met every challenge I think. Great horse. Certainly wouldn't be pencilling her in for the Cox Plate just yet but hopefully she can stay in this sort of form for another campaign.

AFL 2012 4wk 1d ago

Davey I think could be useful in the right side. He is pretty soft and can't win his own footy but in a really good side where he can be strictly an outside player and can use his skills (he is a beautiful kick). Think someone like Andrew Mackie who has really only been effective because he has had so many good players feeding him the ball and made his life easy. Green however doesn't seem to have any value to anyone and if you look at players who have left melbourne in the last few years as good players (Brock McLean and Cameron Bruce spring to mind) they have struggled, so I suspect they only looked good compared to their Melbourne teammates and Brad Green can't even look good compared to them so I suspect he is finished (anyone know if he is contracted for next year?)

Schweppes Sydney Cup (Royal Randwick R6) 4wk 1d ago

Efficient cannot possibly win, he is way past it and anyone who puts their money on him is a complete idiot...upon saying that I will be backing Efficient...

Schweppes Sydney Cup (Royal Randwick R6) 4wk 1d ago

Mark, that is one of the best lines I have ever read on this website, and there's been some absolute beauties. Took me a few moments to regain my composure and write this.

Back Black Caviar and claim a piece of History? 4wk 1d ago

I met a bloke who has a TAB ticket from every single one of her wins and plans to frame them all when she retires. I asked him about the fading thing and he claims that once mounted they can be somehow treated and if the right glass is used they won't fade. That would be a very cool piece of memorabilia.

SYDNEY METRO AND HAPPY VALLEY 1mth 1wk ago

Abandoned at the Farm UK.

Australian Derby (Royal Randwick R7) 1mth 1wk ago

Massive win. Was worried that he mightn't be fit enough having missed the run last start but had to stick with Ethiopia. Might be a serious stayer I'd say and just brilliant to see Pat Carey and Rhys McLeod get a big win, good on them I say. I tell ya lads, keep following this horse because he will be a serious stayer I suspect. Just an exceptional win today.

The return of Atlantic Jewel 1mth 2wk ago

No you're right Boot, she'll be in the Sapphire, my mistake.

The return of Atlantic Jewel 1mth 2wk ago

I could have sworn I read yesterday that she would be Boot?

The return of Atlantic Jewel 1mth 2wk ago

Atlantic Jewel will resume in the TJ lads against Rain Affair.

The Daily Telegraph George Ryder Stakes (Rosehill Gardens R8) 1mth 2wk ago

No doubt Rekindled's effort was a big one moose. Not sure about M.B. I would assume he goes to the Doncaster wouldn't he? Not sure if they'd push on after that, he might be due for a rest having come back from such a long break but if they do push on that race M.B won a couple of years back in Brisbane could be a show...the Doomben Cup is it? Not sure where Rekindled Interest is headed either, I will tell you one thing, you won't get such good value for him ever again.

The Daily Telegraph George Ryder Stakes (Rosehill Gardens R8) 1mth 2wk ago

Metal Bender's run was about half an inch better I reckon.

sorry guys 1mth 2wk ago

This really annoys me cohen, I have suffered deep depression in the past and for you to use this as an excuse for poor tips makes me sick. It's a serious illness and a lot of us have worked very hard to raise awareness for it. If you are really suffering depression you should be engaging with friends and family and professional counsellors if necessary...not the PP community (as much as I love them).

Your Opinion On Jmps Racing 1mth 2wk ago

disco, you obviously don't know what you're talking about, so please ask us for feedback and opinion and don't just state non truths. I have interviewed Denis Napthine about this and a prominent member of the Warrnambool Racing Club about this and I am from a little town just outside of Warrnambool and they estimate that the Warrnambool and district community takes between $10 and $40 million from the May carnival so that in itself is a great result. Also, it is easy to say that English hurdling/steepling is a lot safer but their ratio of falls to deaths is really bad, in fact in English racing, if you fall the horse is gone pretty much whereas in Australia we have far more horses fall and survive. Not saying that's ideal but still...I think you can only be a true racing fan if you have been to Warrnambool which is one of the last true 'carnivals' in racing and is a really great week and if you are bored go to the 'Sportslovers night' on the Tuesday night in town which has developed over the last couple of nights and had guests like David Hayes, Stephen Kernahan, Sam Kekovich, Joe Giacobe, Richie Callendar, Bruce Clark etc. That sounds like a bit of a plug but it really is a great night...especially if you like a phroffy...

MANIGHAR V AMERICAIN. 1mth 2wk ago

UK, please, you're better than that, don't pull put the 'if' calls. If my mother has gonads she'd be my father (a favourite on here). Also, I don't care about ratings etc, So You Think is clearly a different horse, just compare the turn of foot in the Mackinnon to the World Cup. Believe it or not, sometimes common sense and general observation outranks time ratings. DRBRO, please start reading the stewards reports etc. Mosse clearly stated (and Hayes supported him) that they didn't want to fall too far behind Manighar and that he felt he was already too far away when he was wide and had he gone further back he would have had no hope. In all honesty, being there at the track I don't think he really worked that hard, harder than most, yes but not that hard. The wind wasn't too bad and for the last 800 he would have had cover.

The return of Atlantic Jewel 1mth 2wk ago

Andron, I can confirm that she has been nominated for both the Sapphire and the TJ Smith, at this stage she is more likely to run in the TJ but Kavanagh and co will make a decision some time tomorrow.

AFL 2012 1mth 2wk ago

What about Geelong $2.70 head to head, that is still available and is cracking value for mine. Also, Geelong to win by 1-39 @ $3.20 isn't bad.

AFL 2012 1mth 2wk ago

Was yesterday the worst day of footy every played? I've never seen a side win by over a hundred and still be ordinary like North were. Hopefully GWS and the Suns never play on the same day ever again.

MANIGHAR V AMERICAIN. 1mth 2wk ago

How can you say he is 'clearly superior?' That's a ridiculous comment. Americain hasn't had the ping his last couple of starts so the ride was no excuse. Just face it, under Hayes Americain is much more dour and one paced, watch the Australia Cup and you see it perfectly. Americain just grinded to the line. If Mosse had gone back on Americain he wouldn't have got any closer to Manighar anyway, Americain simply doesn't have the sprint anymore to finish off like that (not saying it was a good ride but I do kind of understand what Mosse was thinking).

The Official Golden Slipper Thread 1mth 2wk ago

Barrier 1 strikes again in the Slipper lads. 8 times now out of 56. Not a bad strike rate. Good win too.

The return of Atlantic Jewel 1mth 2wk ago

I believe she has also been nominated for the TJ Smith has she not?

MANIGHAR V AMERICAIN. 1mth 2wk ago

Moody has definitely trained a turn of foot into Manighar, no doubt there. Conversely I think Hayes has trained the brilliance and speed out of Americain and to me he just looks really dour and one paced. I think it's actually similar to what O'Brien has done to So You Think, taken the pace out of him and made him very one paced.

The Bmw (Rosehill Gardens R5) 1mth 3wk ago

Superstar, Arnold shite? Absurd comment I'm afraid mate, very good jockey. I agree that Niwot is a very good show here, he is being aimed at the Sydney Cup, but I also remember hearing the trainer saying the BMW was always on the agenda and firmly a part of their planning. Americain is the one to beat but being trained by Hayes I wouldn't be backing him at evens. He was very one paced in the Aus Cup which indicates this distance will suit but still...I'd prefer take the each way odds about Niwot.

The Daily Telegraph George Ryder Stakes (Rosehill Gardens R8) 1mth 3wk ago

Metal Bender's last run was huge, but beware a horse second up off a long spell. So often they run well first up after a long break and then can't back it up. He looks to have come back well and I've followed him for a long time now so will back him here but I'd say third up he is a massive chance. I have kept a close eye on Happy Zero too jazzer, not sure he is up to this though. Might be ready to go close in a race but there's some good ones here. It's just such a tough race though, Danleigh has been back near his best this prep and his run behind Shoot Out when he went to the inside when the outside was better was good. He did win this race a couple of years back too. Gee it's going to be a good days racing. Bretto, if you're shouting the bar I'll be there waiting and have a Jamesons and lemonade.

The Official Golden Slipper Thread 1mth 3wk ago

Good point Andronicus. Might be the forgotten horse a bit. Might have worked a bit hard chasing ATH but I wouldn't think that took too much out of it.

AFL 2012 1mth 3wk ago

Not sure Geelong have really got them West Coast and Carlton covered. In fact Carlton have no issues playing Geelong at the MCG (won their last 3 there against the Cats I believe) and obviously should have beaten them at Etihad last year when Warnock missed from about a metre out. The Blues do tend to struggle against Hawthorn though which is a concern but they have had their moments against Collingwood. Home ground advantage would be useful for West Coast but the sides in the top 4 do travel well generally, Carlton love playing at Subiaco and Collingwood travel better than any other club so it'll still be tough for them. I guess the big thing with West Coast is can their kids keep improving without hitting a flat spot, they managed to get through all of last year without really dropping off so can they do the same this year? Hawthorn look the side for mine, however, as has been the case for the last 3-5 years, their depth might still be a concern. Absolute guns at the top but if they suffer a couple of injuries, is there much to come in? I suspect Geelong, Carlton and Collingwood all have deeper lists and West Coast we aren't really sure about but if the Hawks stay fit they should go close. Hope they smash Geelong on Monday.

The Official Golden Slipper Thread 1mth 3wk ago

Interesting also that barrier 1 has been the most succesful over the history of the Slipper with 7 wins, I always assumed 1 was no good in a Slipper.

The Official Golden Slipper Thread 1mth 3wk ago

Not good Dener. In fact, I am pretty sure the only one to do it recently has been Sepoy who started at around $2.50 on track. Miss Finland and Dance Hero were around $5 in the mid 2000s and I think Merlene in the mid 90s was around $4 when it won. I think when Freedman won his four in a row in the early to mid 90s Bint Marscay won at around $3.50-$4.00 but I suspect to find a genuine short price you would have to go back to to 1986 when Bounding Away won at 5/4 (about $2.25). However, upon saying that, there also haven't been that many roughies win the Slipper, despite what a lot of people think. Most winners tend to be in the $5-$10 range. In the last 30 years there have only been about 8 winners pay over $10 and a few of those were less than $15. So historically you are looking for a horse that is probably on about the 3rd or 4th line of betting, around or just under the $10 mark.

AFL 2012 1mth 3wk ago

I would say Carlton's list right now is better than St. Kilda's ever was. Carlton have great depth now and I wouldn't say they have a weak bottom 6. Trying to think who their bottom six would be and they are probably Thornton (not much of a player but not totally useless, good kick and can play both ends, but he won't be there when Jamison, Walker, Duigan and Warnock come back), Hampson (took a few grabs and kicked 3 on the weekend and is still only 23 odd), Curnow (started his career really well and won plenty of the footy on the weekend but is a bit slow to act sometimes, again probably won't be there when Carlton get to full strength), Armfield (bit inconsistent but does have a crack, has good pace and can kick goals), Tuohy (Irishman who is still learning a bit, exceptional kick for a foreigner and a good size, might get replaced by Duigan) and perhaps Bower (can play, bit of raw ability but inconsistent and constantly injured). That six is FAR better than the likes of Raph Clarke, Blake, Kosi, Dempster, Peake, Polo etc.

The Official Golden Slipper Thread 1mth 3wk ago

How many did their cash cold on ATH? Gee the bookies will be giggling this morning.

AFL 2012 1mth 3wk ago

Lyon got more out of that list than it ever deserved max. Don't look at the top of a list to gauge its strength, look at the bottom. Have always had 6-10 absolute donkeys playing and that's why Lyon was always so defensive, because they didn't have the talent to be offensive. Their list was never that great, Dal Santo, hayes, Montagna and Goddard were all very good but Fisher, Schneider, Gilbert, King etc were useful only when the side was going well and their top tier players were playing well and as for Kosi...please, in the last two years he has actually hurt them more than helped them. Compare their depth to Carlton, Geelong, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Freo etc. and they aren't even in the ball park.

AFL 2012 1mth 3wk ago

Saints might finally realise how much Ross Lyon got out of a shocking list.

The Official Golden Slipper Thread 1mth 3wk ago

I doubt Pierro can beat Samaready or All Too Hard, in fact I doubt it can get near them. The thing with the Hawkes and Tinkler (especially Tinkler) is they will want him to be undefeated as a 2 year old so the Sires Produce may appeal more than the Slipper does simply because the Slipper is chaotic. I desperately hope they run ATH in the slipper because I am going up to Sydney races for the first time and I'd love to see him. Samaready does have the runs on the board though and her Blue Diamond win was just so impressive. Ignore the clock here Destiny, he could have run so much quicker in the weekend.

Golden Slipper 1mth 3wk ago

Yeah he was awesome merry, I don't think a decision has been made on the Slipper and the Hawkes team seem to be saying they will wait until the last moment (Tuesday morning).

Any Thoughts On Meydan Dubai Saturday Night 1mth 3wk ago

The truth is, Helmet shouldn't have been there because his form didn't warrant it. Had he been owned by anyone else bar Sheik Mohammed the pin would have been pulled but he and Sepoy were always heading to Dubai no matter what so as someone above me said 'both horses were on a hiding to nothing'.

Any Thoughts On Meydan Dubai Saturday Night 1mth 3wk ago

I'm not sure what the current rule is mate, I believe there was once a rule though that a jockey wasn't allowed to touch (hug, shake hands etc) ANYONE until they had weighed in. This was because in theory someone might be able to sneak you a weight or something and you could ride a kilo or two under what you're meant to be. I believe a few actually tried it and some may have got away with it. I doubt it could be done these days with all the cameras etc. but the rule is probably still there and i'd say that'd be the reason.

Any Thoughts On Meydan Dubai Saturday Night 1mth 3wk ago

Superstar, what do you have to go on to say Sepoy is/was one of our best sprinters? He was an exceptional 2 year old yes but I'm not sure I'd say he was one of our best. I am not sure he came up this prep either, just as Helmet didn't come up this prep. I assure you Black Caviar will give any other sprinter in the word a flogging if fit. grant, SYT gets outsprinted because he doesn't have any sprint any more. He is just a one paced stayer under O'Brien.

Any Thoughts On Meydan Dubai Saturday Night 1mth 3wk ago

We are blaming the trainer because the trainer is to blame Superstar. It's that simple. I agree he was under the odds in the World Cup but the truth is he still finished fourth and he was a much better horse under Bart Cummings. It's not us being petty, O'Brien didn't understand what So You Think's strengths were and trained his greatest strength out of him. Watch his races in Australia and then the ones after he left Australia, it is clear he has had his turn of foot trained out of him, that's not opinion or anything, that's just the obvious truth.

Any Thoughts On Meydan Dubai Saturday Night 1mth 3wk ago

Also, Ortensia didn't beat world class horses perhaps but she is no where near our best sprinter here either. Black Caviar and Hay List are WAY better than her and the likes of Buffering, Fox Wedge and Woorim and a couple more are all at a similar level.

Any Thoughts On Meydan Dubai Saturday Night 1mth 3wk ago

Superstar, we will still blame O'Brien as he has completely changed So You Think as a race horse. The ridiculous pacemaker concept in England (and yes, this is a legal form of cheating) has ruined him. He was a horse who used to roll along and still be able to find a higher gear and put his rivals to the sword. He had a brilliant turn of foot which has been trained out of him. He is essentially a dour stayer now when in Australia he was a brilliant middle distance horse.

Any Thoughts On Meydan Dubai Saturday Night 1mth 3wk ago

Oh thank Christ for that tenchy, that's what I was thinking but SportingBet have got the trainer listed as John Sadler too which is obviously a mistake. For those who aren't yet aware, the Dubai Gold Cup will be run again after the Dubai World Cup.

Any Thoughts On Meydan Dubai Saturday Night 1mth 3wk ago

They are saying on EuroSport that they don't think Sepoy handled the track grant.

Any Thoughts On Meydan Dubai Saturday Night 1mth 3wk ago

Boys, can someone answer me this? Why the hell is Dubawi Gold racing in the next at Dubai?!?!? Last race it won was a 0-72 at Ballarat for feck's sake and now they take it to Dubai World Cup Day?