Hi EasyPicks...at this stage I wont be posting any tips. To me that is a big responsibility because people trust what I say and could loose money if either the horse doesn't run well or they don't have a good solid staking plan. Plus we are coming into the off season with a lot of races that are difficult to find winners. I may however think about putting up some tips in the Autumn when the quality horses get back. Thanks for your post mate and good luck to you.
Cheers mate, no worries. It would be good to see your performance on the chart, plus it gives me the chance to analyze all your tips! Haha. Good luck to you too.
It was GTX program from TRB. Heaps of information at your fingertips and for me it was information overload. Denis Walker was particularly helpful. He developed a time based ratings program before he went into partnership with TRB. I wasn't in a position to spend enough time to commit to making things work with a young family and business etc. Now time is more available but I want to develop my own feel for rating horses before I ever commit bigger dollars to commercial products again.
I was just asking because I have looked at a lot of the systems available out there, but never invested in one. I have built my own ratings systems in Excel but I am still yet to find a ratings system that can consistently throw winners. I am sure that my ratings system at the back of the system is great as a guide only but there are so many factors in racing and I have a lot of learning left to do before I can create a system that I don't need to look at the form guide.
I don't think any ratings system can achieve a consistent strike rate above say 35% for a top pick horse. Too many unknowns that simply are not available even in the best form guides. I would guess if your system is working well then it would be just as consistent as a commercial product. With enough time you could probably tweak it to improve as well. I have recently read a number of articles and books on random behaviour, we simply cannot beat the random factors that exist that limit our ability to improve all our educated "guesses". One of the things that Denis stressed was betting to value. Have you looked at the articles on the RaceRate website. I like the authors style. He says a lot of useful things.
Just re-read your post. Even with the commercial systems, you still have to make judgements on what, when and where to invest. That's the part I was naive about. I assumed you buy the product, bet on the top rater and in rolls the money. It doesn't work like that. There seems to be an experience factor that one has to learn before those type of judgements can be made. I simply want to fast track the experience gaining as much as is possible!!
Exactly which is why I never invested in a commercial product because you need to learn the way the system works and then use your knowledge to make the bet or not to bet decision. That is why I have worked on my own systems. I have systems that have very few selections per year, but they are only paying $1.40 to Win and there is no value in the system. I have worked a few to select long shots and I am yet to find one with consistency that lasts longer than 3-4 weeks. RaceRate is an excellent website. I have read many of his articles (he is the developer of BetSelector, the system that I mentioned on your forum post). I think what I want to get out the the systems I am creating is highly unlikely, but I have been working on these excel documents that automatically calculate form for almost 3 years and have over 1gb of excel files alone. There are some I can't even remember how to use properly, and others that are just outdated due to changes in form guides etc. It keeps me busy though and it doesn't cost anything when you're trying to design your own.
One of the best things about Denis's original program being based on times, was that it did throw up good prices winners fairly consistently. He must have spent hours fine tuning the times comparisons between different courses. I like to look at times as a guide for how the race was run but it is too inconsistent for me to use as a tool as yet. I have an idea about times that i am thinking about and forming an algorithm based on them may be useful. I may well be barking up fairly barren tree as well!!
I like the idea of using times, but I have had so much trouble finding decent sectionals or accurate times. It is an excellent tool using times. I think Gartman uses sectionals and he does quite well.
If you liked Gartman's results with debutantes then you might like to check out mine EP ...
Cheers Equinologist. Taking a look at your page now.
Nice work Equinologist, UK Tips only I see. I am amazed how you guys do it. I just can't seem to find enough of the right information to pick them.
The Racing Post is the best place to start. Concentrate on course layouts, local handicapping and trainers stats to begin with. Many UK horses only ever win on one type of track and within a narrow handicap range. For 2yo's only certain stables produce debutante winners on a regular basis. They are the ones to begin with. Best of luck mate.
Cheers for the tip! I will take a look. Thanks heaps.