AVR Forum Posts

the bad luck continues! i can only blame myself 1yr 5mth ago

I have heard that some of the corporate bookies ban you if you win too often or too much. Has anyone had that experience with Luxbet seeing as its been set up by the TAB to compete with the corporates.

LAY OF THE DAY 1yr 7mth ago

Good call on the lays theraven

Contact 1yr 8mth ago

Is there anyone in the Penrith area or Lower Blue Mountains who does ratings or detailed analysis. Would like to meet up.

AVR Tips 2yr 3mth ago

Five winners in a row - now if only I had an all up. Theres 6 today so you never know but I would stick to an all up on the place.

AVR Tips 2yr 3mth ago

Having a good trot at the moment must be because the poor suffering subscribers have dropped off. Three wins from 3 selections today but no great value nevertheless another winning day.

AVR Tips 2yr 3mth ago

In profit for win, place and each way for 30 days, 90 days and 365 days graphs and still on the front page - can't be all bad despite my paddling as Videostar keeps telling me in his reviews.

Centrebet cut me off? 2yr 3mth ago

As previously stated in another post my son received a similar letter last December. He had won over $10K in one day in November and that must have been the straw that broke the camels back or more to the point their fortitude. What a weak mob and shame on anyone who bet with this mob. All they want is the mug punter who is quite happy to lose with them. It may be a commercial decision on their behalf but I would like to see everyone on this site who are Centrebet clients change to another agency because they do not deserve to be in business. The Corporate bookmakers are not exactly going broke, not with what they contribute to racing at the moment, thats why they are in court fighting to retain the privileged position they hold. If they can't make a go of it why are they there. My son now bets with IAS and Betfair and obviously he will not have any problems with Betfair and to date has had none with IAS but I believe it has been purchased by Sportsbet or some other agency so time may tell.

Health 2yr 4mth ago

dr.whiz that's why I have now started going back to the races, to get out of the house away from the idiot box because my middle age spread is starting to spread. Sky or TVN are addictive because I find I can pick up more than I can on the course and can quickly consult my ratings for possible adjustments. Regardless of what you do something will get us in the end; I would prefer however not to have a long period of infirmary wondering who I am, it would play havoc with selecting winners. There again the way I have been going over the last month, I might already be there.

Health 2yr 4mth ago

Excellent idea, I think I'll join you - after all it is Australia day.

Health 2yr 4mth ago

Rating the horses is sometimes like going to the fridge, opening the door and then wondering why did I do that - why am I at the fridge - and you gently close the door that's after you've grabbed a beer. Might as well look like you had a purpose. I analyse my race results afterwards and quite often think why did I do that when the blooming obvious leaps off the form page and the ratings. I don't gently fold the form page afterwards but I also don't tell the missus I just lost out on a 20/1 shot because in her mind it would probably confirm what she has long suspected. Then again fronting up every week to a hobby in an attempt to get an elusive winner or two could be down to either the challenge or the idiot factor. They say 99% of all punters lose in the long term - so why do we continue at it? A friend of mine previously a practicing psychiatrist (now retired) wrote out a committal form for my son and I once in jest because we were under the illusion that we could make punting pay. I still have that form and am still trying to prove him wrong. That was twenty odd years ago. Neither my son and I have been able to give up our day jobs just yet and all three of us still punt. You can read about our friend's punting efforts every month in Practical Punting Monthly. So how far are we really removed from going around the "bend"; have we lost our minds already?

Health 2yr 4mth ago

Do you realise that doing the form, pouring over the weights, assessing the chances, forming a market, etc is all good for avoiding Alzheimer's disease. You are constantly exercising the brain. So now you can tell the missus that you are really doing it so you will not be a burden on here in your dotage. On some days with the selections I have got however I just wonder if a bit of dementia hasn't already crept in.

AVR Tips 2yr 4mth ago

Not a great deal to be said about today. Some nice picks at value and should be a good day if some of them win. I like a lot of my second picks today and I have done this before and put up my second pick as the tip only to see it beaten by my top selection so now I just tip the top ones and forget subjective analysis. They say go with your intuition but every time I do I get a knot in my gut knowing I have steered a subscribers to a loser or runner up.

WHICH WAY TO PLAY.....? 2yr 4mth ago

grandzulu I believe that videostar has discussed this question quite a bit in the posts on New Tipsters Flying discussions. I think most punters want a bit of action with a steady flow of winners with the odd decent priced one sprinkled in the mix. I still get a thrill from a winner especially if its at each way odds or better. Not something that is always easily achievable. As for trying to back the card in four or five venues and hoping to snag the big odds winner I think it is fraught with danger of rapidly depleting a bank. Murphys law will dictate that the big one will come along about one or two bets after you have lost faith with a long of run of bets with no winners. If there is a steady number of winners in the mix at reasonable odds you will still be there when the big one does arrive. Thats my philosophy for what its worth. At the moment I have been paddling and having a very average month but I'm still in there and getting about 41% winning days and that it almost the exact percent for the last 30 days or 90 days. It means that with my top tips I can expect to win three days out of every 7 in the week (pity I couldn't predict the exact days and discard the rest). I also know that it is only a matter of time before that I will tip another decent priced winner because my statistics indicate I will. Puts a lot of faith in the statistics (lies, damn lies and statistics) but for the last few years I have consistently got a number of winners in the $20 plus range. Even in the short history on PP (84 days) I have had 3 winners so far in the $20 plus range Fabella at $30, Our Private Jet at $20.20 and Akatak at $21.50 plus a number at $10 plus. The smaller priced ones keep me going and the odd good priced conveyance is the cream on top.

Totes 2yr 4mth ago

Has anyone had any experience with Typhoon Pools that is currently being advertised? They claim "30% more bang for your buck" because of the smaller take out percentage. From what I can gather they are based in Sydney, employ about 20 people and have paid their appropriate licences to operate on Australian events. I can't see the NSW Government allowing an operator of this type to be in direct competition to the TAB so perhaps there are links to the Northern Territory or off shore. A read of the fine print may be opportune before putting your money with this organisation.

Some time ago we had AUSTOTE which had a Brisbane contact but was actually operated from Vanuatu. They also claimed better than tote payouts. The pools however were not big enough to sustain operations - one large bet would have distorted the market totally. Also at that stage friend Carr (past NSW Premier) threatened to take people to court if they bet offshore or in the territory. I amongst many could have been charged as I already had accounts with the coperates. From memory no one ever got prosecuted because it was an untenable act. I believe AUSTOTE went out of business.

Mail 2yr 4mth ago

dr.whiz that is impressive but I guess you would need to know the average odds because if these movers do win 40% of races as advised by TVN then we may be reasonably sure that there is a very good spread of favourites amongst them. Nevertheless it would pay to watch I guess. It is probably better if you loaded up when a market mover confirms your selection or its one of the Insider Selections picked by the top 25% on PP - however once its moved you have missed the best price. I have a hard enough time trying to get the best odds for my picks.

Horses For Courses 2yr 4mth ago

Has anyone noticed particularly in Melbourne where there are horses for courses. When I get a rated horse based on a Moonee Valley run say for a Flemington meeting I treat it with a lot of caution. Similarly if a horse that does well in Sandown (Hillside or Lakeside) and is engaged at the Valley I again treat it with suspicion. Caulfield seems to be the in between venue. Quite a few that rate based on a Caulfield run will do well at all venues. I also like it when a horse with good Moonee Valley form goes around Cranbourne and Mornington as they are relatively tight tracks. I do not find a great amount of correaltion between the Cushion track at Towoomba and the Sunshine Coast. Some will do well at their respective track but are hopeless on the other. A final example is where horses engaged at the Kensington Track (Randwick inside track) which have a good record at Wyong and Gosford (both tight tracks) do well at that venue. Reminds me of "Chief De Beers" won 19 races at Doomben and not one at Eagle Farm. Any thoughts?

Mail 2yr 4mth ago

Mail is mail I guess whether it is negative or positive, but is only worthwhile if it is accurate and can be used effectively to provide an edge. Kagan pointed out a while ago where the odds comparison tables provide a guide to the market movers. This is mail in itself but as pointed out could be a 'follow the leader' effect unless the stable have crunched it. So to use that mail you would need to look at something like the PP Inside Selections and see who in the top 25% have plumped for the selection if at all. If one of those selections moves dramatically then you could be on a good thing. However by then you may have missed the good price. Frankly I do not subscribe to mail and just fumble through with my own doings and there are some days where I had wished I had followed the mail. But these can be offset like the day in Warwick Farm (many moons ago- showing my age) when everyone was on Fine Cotton. I rechecked my calculations and there was just no way I could come at Fine Cotton. Well I ended up with second until the sirens went off to hold all tickets and the stewards stepped in. I ultimately had the winner. Only in the last couple of weeks we have witnessed a number of big plunges go astray. There have also been some successful ones. I would just treat any mail with caution and the good word can just as easily fritter your money away and you kick yourself because you were persuaded to change your bet from the winner you should have been on. There used to be 'touts' on the race course who would go around and give you the good oil and only wanted a cut if the horse won. They actually tipped a number of the top contenders to different people. They then went back to those who got the winner for their "cut". When you receive mail you need to check it out for yourself. If it confirms your own thoughts well and good if it doesn't walk away.

Mail 2yr 4mth ago

Hi MoneyTalks I was not insinuating that Dean Lester's tips were no good. I always understood that the late mail was predicated on what was being backed and it is the weight of money that basically determined the late mail. Perhaps I'm wrong. But if it is, the Late Mail can some times feed on its own hype. The Horse looks a good thing every one jumps on the band wagon the price comes in and hey presto it's the Late Mail. If Dean provides the Late Mail selections for Victoria they may be his own based on his analysis and observations on the state of the early betting market. I guess the only way to find out would be to ask him. I'll leave that to someone in his home state. As for being in the 'in the know' Sinestro I tend to enjoy it when my selection is one that is not in the know. It will sometimes provoke me to recheck the ratings to see why I'm out of kilter with the thoughts of others but it rarely makes me change my mind unless I have overlooked the 'bleeding' obvious. Pinwheels and to some extent Bank Robber were good examples at Canterbury last night; joint market leaders with a smidgin between them and Pinwheels was the popular pick on the PP site. If you were not on these you were not in the know. Being in the know for the tipped horse may also mean in many instances that you are on the favourite. Favourites still only win between 30% and 34% of all races depending on the venue.

Mail 2yr 4mth ago

I note a number of the tipsters providing a comment such as "Got very good mail that this will win". I always wonder if they got the mail, who else got it, and is half the punting fraternity in the know. I used to have shares in various horses and we got the so called mail about them and other stable horses. Frankly if I had of followed those hot tips I would now be in the poor house. Bookies love hot mail. It brings the price in and is then highlighted as the late mail. If you check the past results for the Late Mail I do not believe it is not much better than what a Newspaper tipsters comes up with. Some good days and some woeful ones. I still ran my own assessments. Any comments about these hot tips. Has anyone followed these comments and won a motza on a regular basis?

Trial Watch & 1st Starters 2yr 4mth ago

O'Lonhro rates extremely well but not in the top two. It not a race I will be betting in because I think it is too hard. For mine I would like to see O'Lonhro have the run. There are still some doubts and I will probably eat my words but the tight track may not suit, as well as 1st up over the 1400M. To his favour he has a master horseman on his back, the pedigree, trainer and talent. I hope he wins.

Would You Have A Look at the Form of this Cat! 2yr 4mth ago

Can't agree with you enough - its just another factor punters have to contend with and its not confined to Australia. However in this case the ratings did point to this horse but it was hard to take with its previous form. So you would probably have to question its previous starts while it was being set for the win.

Would You Have A Look at the Form of this Cat! 2yr 4mth ago

Runaway Combi was the second rated horse in my ratings based on a run at Mildura. The top rated horse was dropping 900M so I dismissed it. Then I promptly dismissed Runaway Combi because of its poor form. How smart was I. I selected Express Star and Whiskey Cruyff as chances. The latter ran second and paid $4.90 the place with UNI TAB or $4.20 NSW TAB. Pity I don't back each way. Its a matter of interpreting the ratings I guess and I got it wrong.

Track : BALLARAT Date : 24/12/2009 Time : 4:06:00 PM Race : 6 Class : RB78
TAB Form Horse Name Age Sex Jockey Wgt Allw Barr Days Trk1 Dist1 Rate1
2 6307 KINUGAWA 5 H D Yendall 57.00 0.00 3 11 WNBL 2015 3.31
5 0000 RUNAWAY COMBI NZ 6 G C A Robertson 56.00 0.00 9 29 MILD 1800 5.34
4 2940 EXPRESS STAR 7 G E Cassar 56.00 0.00 6 20 ARAT 1310 8.72
1 X048 WHISKEY CRUYFF 6 G B Cross 58.00 0.00 2 12 MILD 1400 12.42
8 5180 BOWLABOUNCER 6 G C Newitt 54.00 0.00 5 18 CRAN 1600 13.26
9 6812 ST IVES NZ 4 G G Boss 53.00 0.00 1 14 SALE 1400 16.36
10 4913 STREET SENSATION 4 G J D Hill 53.00 0.00 10 11 BRAT 1600 20.12
3 X231 DOCTOR GACHET 4 G D Oliver 56.00 0.00 7 31 WNBL 1400 20.36
7 X481 OWZAT 7 G Chris Symons 55.00 0.00 4 14 WNBL 1400 26.94
SYS1 SEL EXPRESS STAR RESULTS 5 1 9 DIV 13.60/ 3.20
SYS2 SEL WHISKEY CRUYFF

Trial Watch & 1st Starters 2yr 4mth ago

I haven't as yet rated the race and will give you a further reply when I have. However from 2 first up preps it has won and run 2nd. Despite this the task of winning 1st up over 1400M in a $500,000 race is not a pre ordained. The track is predicted to be Dead and O'Lonhro handles Dead and Heavy. With Darren it should be a good chance. There is no history of a Barrier Trial this preparation but as you say the track gallop was obviously pleasing.

Trial Watch & 1st Starters 2yr 4mth ago

Hi sandgroper I hope you don't mind me sticking my tuppence worth in the mix and you may be right about Warburg but I get suspicious when he is suddenly transferred to WA. The last three starts before his spell were not flash in fact the total preparation was very patchy apart from the 3rd at Kensington and all his wins were in the first preparation. Gerald Ryan would not let a prospective earner go easily. Also as a first up proposition I think today's distance appears to short for him - time will tell I guess. Finally there appears to be no barrier trials for this prep. Don't get me wrong I would love the horse to do well in the West for his owners but I will not be on him until he shows something. A suitable race in the provincials at the right distance may top him off for a mid week Ascot run.

tony brassel? 2yr 4mth ago

I do listen to these people because they can sometimes give you a clue about a horse because of their resources eg video library and their knowledge on who trialled well. However I still do my own thing regardless of their tips. I love it when I have a selection that they do not tip. Rumours have it that some of the tipsters do not make a song and dance about something they really fancy at odds. Its an impossible task as they have to come up with the goods in every race in every state. So the markets must influence them as well as the so called good runs. But at what stage of the preparation is that good run - at its peak, on the way up or down? Also they appear to have a team of analysts providing information as they quote rating figures. Not sure if it's Tech Form, Mark Reads or GTX (RSB). To my advantage I have the luxury and freedom to select which races I should rate and play as I keep stats to indicate which events and venues to avoid. Still does not stop me from having some crappy days and cursing myself for perhaps not paying closer attention to the tipsters because every man in the land was on the winner bar me.

AVR Tips 2yr 4mth ago

A variety of track conditions. Could not get away from rating a couple of favourites but some of the other top raters have a touch of odds about them which should see us finish up on the right side of the ledger. My next immediate goal is to get to a 5 digit Profit figure. Today should get us closer.

AVR Tips 2yr 4mth ago

That wrapped up a nice day on the punt. Two solid winners from 5. Canterbury Race 5 produced the quinella, trifecta and first four for me in the top 4 rated selections. More importantly the single selections won nicely for those who bought the tips. Although I give a profit guarantee I always feel for those who follow me and come up with a losing day. Receiving some of your subscription back is probably little consolation.Today we can rejoice.

TRACK CONDITIONS 2yr 4mth ago

I cannot understand why NSW & VIC TABS cannot put up the proper track conditions. How hard is to extend the field to 2 alpha numerics.The 10 level system has been in for a number of years but I still have to go to UNITAB to get the more definitive track reading. I have gone to their site and asked the question but have not even received the coutesy of a standard reply. I might try again but its like p__sing in the wind. To me it seems a simple program change and before anyone challenges me on that I work in a data managment company. How much does the track condition affect your punting - do you change your selections based on the track condition and are you happy with just a simple Good, Dead , Slow or Heavy? With track watering its rare to have a Fast track these days as some horse will jar up.

AVR Tips 2yr 4mth ago

Not an easy day. The races at Canterbury are a challenge on a wet track bordering on Slow (Dead 5). May improve during the day. There is at least some value and if we snag one we are in for a good day.

Glen Boss 2yr 4mth ago

Glen Boss does put in some good rides. But older jockeys get wiser. You can make more money riding the big ones, you don't have to prove yourself like up and coming jockeys or those trying to crack the city, so if you look like getting into a scrimmage in the provincials or country don't go there because the stewards can still rub you out. He does have a tendancy to lead on some hotpots again probably to keep out of trouble and a few go under at the death knock. I must admit I don't pay enough attention to the Jockeys that are on my selections and I probably should. Having said that I have had a number of good wins with Bossy on board. I was on So You Think in the Cox Plate but not his subsequent run so I was lucky.

READ THE FINE PRINT........A WARNING FOR EVERYONE 2yr 5mth ago

Well, it happened my son has been banned from betting with Centrebet. Apparently he won too much. How gutless. I know they are a sponsor of this site. Its alright while you lose but start to win and they ban you. So if you are a client don't go and win. I haven't encountered it yet with the two corporates I use. There's always Betfair and the TAB's and the last few on course bookmakers who must accept a bet up to $5000 take out on metro courses I believe. Has anyone else encountered a ban from this mob? I believe there was a similar incident highlighted in the Winning Post recently. Apparently their rules state that they have the discretion to transact with a client. Do we really need agencies like this? They provide little return to racing itself and are obviously only there to be rip off agents. My advice close your account with them and move to someone else who will give you a fair go.

AVR Tips 2yr 5mth ago

The up and downs of the game we love. Yesterday could not scratch myself and those who subscribed must be wondering. Today 7 selections for 4 winners and 2 placings. Had to survive a double protest for the last winner. Did not make up for yesterday's debacle but at least hauled in a couple of points.

Christmas Stakes (Caulfield R6) 2yr 5mth ago

I'd like to see Emjay Hussey run a good race but can't help thinking that this is a different class of race to the provincials, mid week metro and Moonee Valley night. It came up as the top rating pick in the Sale race a while ago and had the outside barrier. It won running away from them. The favourite which is my second selection in the race is hard to go past apart from my tip which is over 10/1 in the market. Tramuntana is a good horse but seems to be a better conveyance in the SA feature races. Gold in Dubai is my third rated horse and should be thereabouts at the finish. An interesting race which would not surprise me in throwing up a complete outsider.

PUNTERS PARADISE SITE ? 2yr 5mth ago

Hi barn I was on the Grandstand Publishing web site recently and Barry Hughes provides a staking plan which he claims will allow you to retire provided you have a good sprinkling of winners. It a variant of the old divisor 6 target system with a couple of modifications. Too me target betting is still a dangerous path to follow. However it is provided free of charge; worth at least a look to run across your selections. One of the best books I have read for Staking Plans is "Winways" which was put out in the 60's as part of the Maximum Series of Books published by Turf Monthly. Out of print but may be available through 2nd hand bookshops. Each staking plan is tested by a series of races with run of outs to see how they cope. Finally I should add that the winning selections must be there because a Staking Plan no matter how well devised will not turnaround a long run of outs interspersed with short priced winners. There's one mob in NSW who sell some staking plans for $200 plus and frankly I would think it's not worth the money. One of the best plans I have come across is the one put out by the Cabramatta Cougar which is very conservative. The foreword to that one is "stick to selections that would win or lose very little on level stakes". If you have that his plan will work. As it is copyright I cannot put it up on the site - sorry. For mine I still prefer level staking with a low percentage of the bank say 2% per bet. If you win over a period put 50% of the win to the bank (divide the new bank by 50 for the new level stake bet) and put the other 50% in the kick or buy the poor suffering spouse a bunch of flowers and treat her to a night out.

Tipsters Aims 2yr 5mth ago

Thanks Cracka. My problem is not so much the rating method I use it's my own interpretation of those ratings. The one factor that I keep on doing is scrubbing top selections because I believe they cannot get the distance. Take yesterday I had JE NE SAIS PAS on top in Caloundra Race 7 a 1200M event. The horse has never won at this distance and with the uphill run at Corbauld Park you need a horse that can run out a strong 1200M so I scrubbed it. You know the result $4.50 winner. I did it last week with Impulsive Act ($10.90) and a week earlier with Fly To Win stepping up from 1400M to 1660M. I had tipped it at its previous start when it won at $12.30 and scrubbed it when it won again at $7.90. So my resolution is never ever scrub a horse again because I do not think it will get the distance. Dare I say it - trust the trainer. You know what will happen now. Apart from the lower grade races which I do not rate I do find some venues better than others for example Moonee Valley night meetings and Rockhampton sand track are hopeless. I will not consider them again or put them up on the PP site. Sounds like a New Year resolution and one I can easily stick to.

Tipsters Aims 2yr 5mth ago

As this is horseracing why not have a prize structure of 1st 2nd and 3rd in the major comps?

EXTRA EXTRA 2yr 5mth ago

I think that it can all be too scientific. Horse racing is not a perfect science if it were those with the smarts and the wherewithal would be filthy rich. What do we penalise a horse that missed the kick and goes down by a short half head coming down the outside? How often does it miss the kick - is it a habitual thing. What about a horse with rogue barrier manners - Striken in the WA is a prime example; talented horse but beats himself - what should he be penalised. I have simply ignored him in any race that he contests of late and come out in front but he does enough in a race without winning to rate well for his next engagement. There are so many variables and no matter how sophisticated the computer application it would be difficult to program to take every happening in a race. I find that a good horse will overcome most obstacles regardless of wide running, scrimmages in the pack, bad ride (not sure of this one), locked in on the fence, headwinds, etc. They do come out in the ratings (my selections and ratings are based on its last ten starts) and the prevailing conditions such as a headwind are just another obstacle that cannot be readily factored in. You would need an accurate speed map to know where every horse will be running to ascertain whether it will be sheltered or bear the brunt of the wind. Speed maps are another subject and again in my ignorance I tend to ignore them apart from noting whether a horse is a leader, pack runner or back marker and you can get that from the form by position in running. A good horse may lose on the day but it may increase its price for the next start when it will win. There gain it may not because everyone observed the same incident. It will be interesting to see how Orchestra Stalls does today at Morphettville because it was beaten by a bad ride last start. I did not factor that in but it still comes out quite well on the ratings based on its previous starts.

Tipsters Aims 2yr 5mth ago

Blows my theory apart. I was also of the opinion that you could make money selling the tips but not to the degree mentoned by Kagan and that the real money was in the competition. Comes from basing my thoughts on my own experience on the site. I guess we should all have 2 aims here. Selling tips based on a good set of rated selections and still aim to win the competition. I'm glad I started this discussion and I love the way the hand grenade was lobbed in late in the piece.

Tipsters Aims 2yr 5mth ago

It would appear so {ubid2win.com]. The benefit is definitely in winning the comp. But there can only be one winner. So I will continue to do my ratings on selected races and out of my top four I finally select the horse I believe can win regardless of odds. This is normally the top rated horse unless it is first up and has never won 1st up, or its recent form is poor, has a wide barrier and a claiming apprentice, or has never run today's distance, etc. This has undone me on occasions particularly the latter factor. Yesterday was a classic case of getting it wrong, four of my 2nd picks got up. I made money but those following the PP selections would have lost slightly. I will not be changing my selection method to simply to meet a contest. I still believe that eventually I will get there and I can do it with so called quality selections. I have been on the site for approximately 7 weeks so by the end of the 12 weeks I should be up around the $9000 mark if I can keep up the same rate of winners. Such a result will not win the competition but will at least give some pleasure to those who want to follow me on the PP site. Sounds ambitious I know but its no good going at this game with the aim to lose. Based on my past results I have a fair chance of getting there and time will tell. As we all know horse racing can be a fickle sport and Academy Magic on Thursday night was a classic case of the best thing beaten. But I'm the true optimist as most of us must be as we come back to the sport time and again and I still get a thrill when I win. I also do not beat myself up about a loss as I know there is more racing tomorrow and the day after.

EXTRA EXTRA 2yr 5mth ago

I agree the principle stays the same however there are some tracks now where they have made a camber on the home turn so that the outside horses are not overly disadvantaged. I could be wrong but I think Queanbeyan may be cambered. Regardless of this I must admit I do not factor wide running into my rating selections - it probably tells. Don Scott also factored in weight advantages for horses that were checked or couldn't get a run. This is fine if you concentrate on one venue and gather all the information for that venue. Its all good stuff but it becomes work not a hobby if you go to that 'N' th degree. On another aspect in answer to dr.whiz I liked the old Rockhampton tracks and enjoyed some great results there. The Sand track however has not suited my ratings at all unlike the Sunshine Coast and Toowoomba where I seem to do alright. I hope the new grass track will improve my results again at Rockhampton.

EXTRA EXTRA 2yr 5mth ago

Not sure if I should get into this debate but the best book for gauging the effect of wide running is the Don Scott book Winning More. I have just had a look at my copy and there are a number of charts or tables provided. He starts with the premise that a horse running 2 wide on the home turn loses about a half a length at the Randwick track (1.42M) which equates to a compensation of 1KG. He then provides tables for various widths out eg 3 wide, 4 wide, etc and devises his own scale. There are also tables for running wide on the early turns. The tables also take into account track condition eg effect on Good tracks and Slow and Heavy tracks. Unless you study video replays there are not too many form guides that will tell where the horse ran wide except as a comment or as an adjunct to the measurable form. Provincial or country form will tell you little except winning or beaten margin, weight, class, age of horse, gender, etc. Not sure where you would get a copy of Don Scott's book these day.

Tipsters Aims 2yr 5mth ago

I've been getting the insider selections for some time now and have been wondering how best to use them. I will watch your experiment with interest. I bet first fours by taking my first 3 rated selections for first and 2nd and then take the top five for 3rd and 4th. So the bet looks like this 1,2,3; 1,2,3; 1,2,3,4,5; 1,2,3,4,5. It cost $9 flexi for 25%. If you take the top 6 for 3rd and 4th it is $18 for 25%. I have had some wonderful collects using this so the same method could be used with the top five insider selections.

Tipsters Aims 2yr 5mth ago

Wow! At last I have put up a forum thread that has received some animated feedback. I haven't gone into the figures in the detail that ubid2win.com has over the last 30 days and I might have to do a few sums. Strike rate is important and as stated by putting up 20 or more with the same strike rate and winning days and presumably a higher average win price than there is a lot to what ubid2win.com put forward. What amazes me is that you read lots of articles where the so called professionals win every year based on 6 or 7 good days and because of their annual turnover are happy with less than 5%. I struggle with 25% - 30% odd percentage POT and probably 45% winning days. Could be as stated that I do not have enough selections. I find however that my selection method does not work too well in races with a lack of form or low class races where there are too many surprises hence I stick with the better class races. Some days I will have over 10 selections and other days only 1 or 2. Since I have been on the site I have been guilty of slipping in the odd race on quiet days which I shouldn't have been in and sure enough Murphy's Law rules. I now stick to what I am comfortable with.

Tipsters Aims 2yr 5mth ago

From my observation of the tipping on the site there appears to be two camps. Those that load up on selections every day in every race hoping to pick up the odd big priced winner and win the monthly and quarterly tipping competition and those who are there to provide genuine tips for others to follow. The first group are very hard to follow in their tips because of the big gaps between wins. They are up and down like a yo-yo. The second group can at least be analysed with some confidence. They do not win every day but if they win close to 1 out of every 2 days they are a good tipster to follow. Grab a couple of them and you could conceivably come out on top 2 out of 3 days. The latter group will not win the competition but I know where I would put my money and its not the first group - its a bit like the Hare and the Tortoise. However the prize if gained makes up for a lot of tip subscriptions.

Information Overload 2yr 5mth ago

I agree - some will advise that you can make a dutch book or back the rated overs in the top 4. You have 30% against you (where the top 4 do not produce the winner) plus the ones you do not back because of unders (under the required odds) which in many cases will get up. I have always struggled with trying to do the Don Scott thing (price assessment) and back the overs. He was in an era where not too many were doing their own ratings and that gave him and his Eagle Team a decided edge. Overs are now hard to get in the top four and a Dutch Book (backing to the percentages on the top four) generally returns very little. It like backing odds on. Professionals with large banks swear by this methodolgy and are content to cream off the 1% to 3% but its needs a large bank and nerves of steel. It becomes a job and loses its fun.

Information Overload 2yr 5mth ago

I was at a mates place on the Gold Coast last week Saturday and we enjoyed an afternoons punting in front of the Plasma flipping between Sky and TVN. He was somewhat bewildered with his punting activity as he does not do his own ratings or calculations but instead buys every guide under the Sun - Best Bets, Sportsman, Winning Post and even uses the monthly rating figures from the Practical Punting magazine. He also subscribes to two rating services. In the past he has bought heaps of systems that seemed to hit its run of outs just as he bought them. So recently he decided to use the coinciders - unfortunately that took him down a path of short priced favourites and despite the a number of wins at the end of the day he is left with a slight loss and some hard luck stories. His bank is slowly haemorrhaging although part of his problem is trying to beat the game in almost every race. I do not think that he is Robinson Crusoe because the game is not an easy one. I do my own thing and the only one to blame or on the odd occasions praise is yours truly. If you do buy a guide or subscribe I believe that you need to stick to the one media because the herd (backing favourites) is generally in the 90 plus percentage that lose over time. One days outcome should not be counted but my mate confessed that in the past he has changed from one guide to another based on the one day's poor showing and even changed mid stride during the day. I pointed him to the PP site and showed him how to analyse a few of the tipsters. You cant readily do that with the publications unless you sit down and record the results over a period of time - time consuming and his life is time poor because of the successful business he manages and punting is one of his relief valves. I think I have convinced him but stressed that if he does follow a tipster or two (because he likes action) he should stick through thick and thin and not judge them on one or two days poor showing. I doubt if he will have the discipline to do it as he is the proverbial Saturday punting tragic. Has anyone else been bewildered by the amount of information out there and having difficulty sorting it all out to come up with a winning set of selections over time or been guilty of changing from one tipster to another based on the one days poor showing?

Barrier Vet Inspections 2yr 5mth ago

Have you have noticed that when a horse undergoes a vet inspection at the barriers and it is passed fit to run invariably you have done your money cold if you are on it; very few if any win. Of course when it is put back into the barrier its too late to back something else particularly with the corporate bookmakers as they have already closed the race. It's great if you are not on it and it goes out the favourite. So I guess you have to take the knocks with the wins. Be pleased to hear any thoughts on this?

Losing Sequences 2yr 5mth ago

Hi zed85 I must agree with both TJ and ubid2win. I find that level stakes work for me regardless of the odds, hype, radio sprukers, so called inside information, etc. I do my own thing and as I suggested you must be in your comfort zone in that you can afford it and not risk money you do not have or should put on. Treat it as a hobby, if you win great - if you lose you may at least have enjoyed the ride but you are not at risk of losing your life savings, house, family, etc. The amount of so called professionals making a living form punting are few and far between. They are out there but dedicate their whole life to it. I still have to work for a living but enjoy my punting and as you can see from the tips I have some good days and other days I would rather forget. By being conservative I am there to enjoy the good days and I measure my success or otherwise over a month as a minimum not on one or two days.

Losing Sequences 2yr 5mth ago

There are a number of publications which provide staking plans and in some cases you are also charged to buy some dubious "sure fire" staking method. There is a popular monthly punting magazine which has a web site that provides you with a free e-booklet with various staking plans. Regardless of their plans I still like conservatism. I would not be able to manage a wildly escalating bet amount staking plan such as the six point plan. Without a high percentage of winners you would be in dangerous territory. I would not be comfortable using a lot of the recommended plans unless you have a very high strike rate. Once you get out of the comfort zone murphy's law will determine that the winners come in after you have lost your bank. Reminds me of a mate - Bad News Bill - regardless of tipping him a decent winner during the day generally the summation is "Arrr... the wheels fell off, I know you rated that good thing but by the time it came around I was skint mate, Eddie gave me a tip straight from that big betting stable, the odds on offer were too good to pass up, bloody nag didn't even give a yelp, it was so far back radar couldn't pick it up, they're still out there searching for the bastard". What Bill forgot is that the big odds would not be available if the stable was really supporting it and a staking plan no matter how good will not cater for rumoured tips from well meaning friends who advise you to load up on it.

Losing Sequences 2yr 5mth ago

Some of you may remember the Maximum booklets put out by the Turf Monthly back in the 60's. In their Winways booklet which details numerous betting plans they published an expected losing sequence based on the win percentage. This was based on earlier articles by D G Walker and Bob Orie of Turf Review. Many of the published staking plans attempted to overcome the anticipated losing sequences but the spiralling bet amounts towards the end of a sequence would test anyone's resolve. At 25% win rate (close to my results of late) you can expect a losing sequence of 16. At 33.3% a sequence of 9 and at 50% a losing sequence of 4. At the lower scale 12.5% (one in eight selections) the losing sequence can be as high as 64. So far on the site (since 31st Oct) I have had a losing sequence of 12 and another of 11. You can see now how the psychology factor would play a big factor. For that reason I'm quite happy to use 1% of my bank on a bet without any escalation until I win about 50% of the starting bank. Withdraw half of it and add the other to make a new bank amount; probably conservative but enjoyable and never in fear of losing. I must admit that my longest losing sequence over the past few years has been 14 based on single bets and fortunately I have managed to recover quite nicely each time. But one day I might break the sequence with an evens or odds on winner and slide into another losing sequence. So the prognosis made some fifty years ago still holds. I have witnessed many punters bet up big at the start of the day and only had $5 or less left for the winner at the end of the day? One tipster since Saturday has had 60 tips for three winners. How many would have been on the 50/1 shot when it finally came around? I should also add that just before that sequence there was 72/1 winner so the tipster wins and wins well but would you last through the run of outs?