Runner-by-runner analysis: Group 1 Australian Guineas

Veight is tackling the Australian Guineas.

A field of 16 plus four emergencies has been declared for the Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m).

Here is our analysis of every horse set to line up in the feature.

READ: Flemington preview and tips: Saturday, March 2

1 - RIFF ROCKET

Last year's Victoria Derby winner that returned with a bang, taking out the CS Hayes Stakes first-up and he had the race won a long way out. He's only going to improve with the run under his belt, plus rise in trip and last preparation, he was undefeated at Flemington. Star three-year-old and will take some beating.

Verdict: Hard to beat.

What a win! Ã°ÂŸÂšÃ°ÂŸÂš

Riff Rocket explodes down the centre of the track to win the CS Hayes Stakes. @cwallerracing @CWilliamsJockey pic.twitter.com/vKFevIBUqT

- 7HorseRacing Ã°ÂŸÂÂÂÂÅ½ (@7horseracing) February 17, 2024

2 - VEIGHT

Strong first-up winner before handling himself at weight-for-age when fourth to Mr Brightside in the CF Orr Stakes. The likes of Pericles and Atishu finished behind him that day and he now looks ready for the mile third-up into the campaign. Damian Lane sticks and they're drawn well in gate six.

Verdict: Has to be in the mix.

3 - KING COLORADO

Last year's Group 1 J.J Atkins winner that has turned in two strong runs this preparation without winning. Outsprinted by Riff Rocket last time in the CS Hayes Stakes and while he's got to improve to turn the tables, he's got the scope to do so, but barrier 12 is tricky.

Verdict: Don't dismiss.

4 - APULIA

Narrow runner-up to Riff Rocket in the Victoria Derby and this is his first run since that day. Did run well first-up at a similar trip last campaign when breaking his maiden at Cranbourne, this is obviously much harder but he's a horse with a bit of class.

Verdict: Prefer others.

5 - ZIPAWAY

West Australian galloper that's already a Group 1 placegetter having run a narrow third to Dom To Shoot and Zaaki in the Northerly last year. Pass mark first-up at the 1400m when third to Snow Patrol, and he'll enjoy every bit of the extra furlong. Looks like a serious racehorse and can give this race a shake.

Verdict: Massive overs at $21.

Dom To Shoot storms in late to beat Zaaki by a nose in the Northerly Stakes! Ã°ÂŸÂÂÂÂ‡ pic.twitter.com/2yf6gLN5v2

- SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) December 9, 2023

6 - CAP FERRAT

Pass mark first-up in the CS Hayes Stakes when getting to the outside and hitting the line well. Group 1 placegetter in spring over 2000m so he's going to improve over more ground. Drawn to get a good run as well with Josh Parr in the saddle.

Verdict: Has to improve.

7 - THE PENDRAGON

Underrated Kiwi that continued to win at the back end of 2023 before running into a superstar when second to Orhestral in the Karak Million 3YO. Versatile horse, and he'll need to be from barrier 14, but he's got class.

Verdict: Place chance.

8 - RUN HARRY RUN

Looked as though he needed the run first-up in the CS Hayes Stakes and the rider (Opie Bosson) did come back and report concern with the action. Tricky barrier and doesn't have the Kiwi hoop on board.

Verdict: Not here.

9 - SUNSETS

Third to Riff Rocket and Apulia in the Victoria Derby and like the latter, he's first-up since that race. Likely to improve with the run.

Verdict: Not here.

10 - VERDAD

Strong resuming effort behind Riff Rocket when held up until the 300m mark but wouldn't have beat the top two regardless. Did finish sixth in the Caulfield Guineas but Flemington seems a more suitable track for him.

Verdict: Have a few ahead but can run well.

11 - SNOW PATROL

It was a good win first-up in the Autumn Stakes when beating a number of the horses he faces on Saturday. The query is Saturday's race will be his first crack at the mile but he's in super form and Blake Shinn goes on board.

What a finish!

Snow Patrol outlasts Southport Tycoon & takes out the G2 Autumn Stakes first-up Ã°ÂŸÂ‘ÂŠ@MickPriceRacing pic.twitter.com/O90oV2LcVK

- Racing.com (@Racing) February 10, 2024

12 - SOUTHPORT TYCOON

Two runner-up finishes this time in with the first behind Veight before Snow Patrol got the better of him. Talented horse but had every chance on both occasion so would have to find a little to be considered a winning hope. Has had one run at the mile but it was a complete forgive when shut off in the Caulfield Guineas.

Verdict: Place at best.

13 - OTAGO

Lightly raced galloper getting here at start number four. Winner of his first two before tackling the CS Hayes Stakes when five weeks between runs. Was favourite that day and handled himself well, finishing fourth while seemingly having his chance. Likely improver with the fitness benefit now and this looks his target race. Drawn well and Ben Melham sticks.

Verdict: Don't rule out.

14 - HEY FAT CAT

Backing up for a fourth straight week. It doesn't seem to affect the three-year-old and he acquitted himself well at weight-for-age when fifth to Mr Brightside last week. Barrier one could be tricky.

Verdict: Prefer others.

15 - QUINTESSA

A Kiwi filly (Legarto) won last year's edition of the Australian Guineas and Quintessa is trying to do the same in 2024. She's definitely a level (or two) below Legarto though and while being a Group 1 winner, it was a reasonably weak Levin Classic and she had the perfect run. Strong run last start against the older horses and will come here with improvement stepping back up to a mile.

Verdict: Not here but a keen watch.

It had to be Opie Ã°ÂŸÂ˜ÂÂÂ

Quintessa proves too good in a thrilling finish to the G1 Levin Classic Ã°ÂŸÂ™ÂŒ@TeAkauRacing @opie_bosson pic.twitter.com/NxqbA5f5VW

- Racing.com (@Racing) January 13, 2024

16 - VIESTE

Looking to produce the upset at $201 and Lunar Fox showed it can be done. It was a good enough first-up run at Canterbury but she's likely to be outclassed here.

Verdict: Looks outclassed.

17e - MAH ALI

First and only emergency that joins Vieste on the float down to Melbourne. Beat home her stablemate at Canterbury.

Verdict: Not here.

TIPS

1 - ZIPAWAY (5)

2 - RIFF ROCKET (1)

3 - VEIGHT (2)

4 - SNOW PATROL (11)

Flemington Race 8 Form Guide WIN PLACE
Howden Australian Guineas (1600m)
3rd 1 Riff Rocket (9) Craig Williams 57.0kg	2.45	2.45	2.5	2.45	2.5	2.96	3.1	2.4	2.45	2.65	2.4	2.5
2nd 2 Veight (6) Damian Lane 57.0kg	5	4.8	4.8	5	4.8	2.38	3.55	5.5	5.6	5	4.8	4.8
10th 3 King Colorado (11) Mark Zahra 57.0kg	9	8.5	8.5	8.5	8.5	9.6	36	8	8.6	9	9.5	8.5
11th 4 Apulia (14) Luke Currie 57.0kg	71	67	81	67	61	75	980	51	61	61	67	61
12th 5 Zipaway (10) Steven Parnham 57.0kg	23	23	29	21	26	70	38	21	20	20	26	26
7th 6 Cap Ferrat (2) Joshua Parr 57.0kg	31	26	29	26	31	12	980	31	35	26	29	31
15th 7 The Pendragon (13) Jordan Childs 57.0kg	34	34	41	26	31	15	980	26	21.5	26	34	31
13th 8 Run Harry Run (15) Daniel Stackhouse 57.0kg	101	81	126	101	101	60	1000	101	85	91	126	101
14th 9 Sunsets (12) John Allen 57.0kg	51	61	71	51	61	32	100	71	47	61	67	61
5th 10 Verdad (3) Jye McNeil 57.0kg	18	17	19	19	18	11.5	900	19	21.5	18	18	18
9th 11 Snow Patrol (7) Blake Shinn 57.0kg	13	12	13	12	13	18	900	13	11.4	13	15	13
1st 12 Southport Tycoon (4) Jamie Kah 57.0kg	17	19	21	18	18	14	19	18	15.8	18	19	18
8th 13 Otago (5) Ben Melham 57.0kg	26	27	31	26	26	14.5	900	21	26	26	29	26
6th 14 Hey Fat Cat (1) Ethan Brown 57.0kg	26	27	31	26	26	20	32	31	27	23	29	26
4th 15 Quintessa (8) Michael Dee 55.0kg	21	21	23	19	21	18.5	24	21	20	20	23	21
16th 16 Vieste (16) Fred W Kersley 55.0kg	251	301	501	301	301	44	1000	251	321	251	301	301
Market percentage	119	121	114	122	119	150	80	120	120	118	116	119
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