Randwick preview and tips: Championships Day 2 - Saturday, April 8
Fireburn won at The Championships in 2022
Day 2 of the Championships is headlined by the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at the Royal Randwick.
The track played average last week when rain fell in the morning. The rail has been pushed out 4m the entire circuit. There is some rain around the next few days, so we may get to a Soft 6 at best. But currently the track is a Heavy 8.
The first of 10 races kicks off at 11:40am.
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Race-by-race preview, tips and best bets for Randwick below.
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Randwick Race 1
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Grainshaker Vodka Fernhill (1600m)
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| 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||
| 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6.6 | 7 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 5.5 | 5 | 6 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6 | 6.2 | 5 | 5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | ||||
| 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4 | 4.4 | 4 | 4.2 | ||||
| 17 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 19 | 19.5 | 16 | 18.2 | 16 | 16 | 15 | ||||
| 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||||
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Market percentage
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117 | 118 | 114 | 116 | 102 | 99 | 117 | 117 | 115 | 117 | 116 | |||
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Quick Bet
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Form Guide
KINTYRE (5) gets the run just behind the speed and looks well set up stepping up to the mile. He has raced Inhibitions twice and beaten her both times, yet is double the price. Given his breeding a wet track is no issue, nor is the mile.
BOBBY SHIRAZ (1) seems poorly weighted here, given he won a race in Brisbane yet has to lug top weight. But the win was strong and 1600m at start two looks to be only a positive for him.
TOWNSEND (4) is the best bred horse in this race and was good on debut when winning despite an impeded run. The 1200m-1600m is a touch of an issue for most stables, but Gai and Adrian get them nice and fit.
SHEETICE (7) just did not know how to put the race away on debut and was quite good there. Prebble will have him in the right spot from gate two and he has his chance.
Verdict: Kintyre 1 x 3
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Randwick Race 2
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Bisley South Pacific Classic (1400m)
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| 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10.5 | 15 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||||
| 14 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 27 | 13 | 13.4 | 13 | 13 | 13 | ||||
| 8.5 | 8.5 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 12.5 | 9 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8 | 8 | ||||
| 11 | 9.5 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 10.8 | 12 | 9.5 | 12 | ||||
| 18 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 11 | 40 | 15 | 15.8 | 16 | 17 | 17 | ||||
| 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 10.6 | 11 | 10 | 10 | ||||
| 8 | 7.5 | 8 | 8 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 8 | 8 | ||||
| 3.8 | 3.9 | 4 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4 | 3.9 | ||||
| 26 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 17 | 120 | 21 | 21.5 | 23 | 23 | 23 | ||||
| 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 17 | 8 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | ||||
| 31 | 27 | 31 | 31 | 21 | 900 | 31 | 26.5 | 31 | 29 | 31 | ||||
| 51 | 51 | 51 | 46 | 48 | 400 | 51 | 53 | 51 | 51 | 46 | ||||
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Market percentage
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117 | 120 | 114 | 118 | 129 | 72 | 119 | 122 | 118 | 120 | 118 | |||
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Quick Bet
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In what looks to be a super tricky race, COOL JAKEY (9) looks the starting point here. He has done nothing wrong in all three runs to start his career and will roll forward and keep kicking. He keeps on improving and will be hard to get past again.
STYLISED (12) returns as a gelding and trialled nicely behind Zou Tiger in readiness for this. He was great in the Gloaming in the spring and that form has held up quite well in the Autumn. He looks like a ripping value play.
PERFECT THOUGHT (2) has been trialling in good order leading up to the fresh run. His Carbine Club win in the spring was very strong and that race always holds up well. He gets a great run from gate four.
KOVALICA (3) is my long-term Queensland Derby tip and he kicks off his preparation here. Given the gate he gets back and rattles home, but he is more than good enough to finish over the top of them.
Verdict: Stylised (Value)
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Randwick Race 3
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Tresemme Percy Sykes Stakes (1200m)
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| 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | ||||
| 12 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 14.5 | 15 | 9 | 12.2 | 11 | 12 | 11 | ||||
| 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.35 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | ||||
| 9.5 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 9.6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||||
| 51 | 41 | 51 | 41 | 55 | 65 | 41 | 53 | 41 | 51 | 41 | ||||
| 4 | 3.9 | 4 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4 | 3.8 | ||||
| 71 | 51 | 81 | 67 | 75 | 90 | 61 | 63 | 61 | 67 | 67 | ||||
| 61 | 51 | 61 | 51 | 60 | 65 | 41 | 53 | 41 | 51 | 51 | ||||
| 17 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 23 | 24 | 18 | 15.8 | 18 | 19 | 19 | ||||
| 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | ||||
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Market percentage
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117 | 119 | 114 | 119 | 102 | 98 | 120 | 119 | 121 | 117 | 119 | |||
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Quick Bet
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One of the better bets of the day is AUTUMN BALLET (3) who was fantastic when winning the Black Opal on debut. She sat behind a strong speed and belted them. Kept away from the Slipper to target this looks a masterstroke and she is going to be hard to beat.
TIZ INVINCIBLE (10) was in the Black Opal too and was huge running fourth. She came via the Hume Highway when making her run and still managed to just miss the placings. A softer run from gate two has her in the race.
She is left of field but KRISTILLI (9) has a motor for sure. She was wayward as anything on debut when charging through the line. With natural race improvement she could run quite well despite being eligible for weaker races. The connections recently purchased the full sister, which could be a guide on her ability.
Hard to match up ETHEREAL STAR (4) as the Kiwi 2YO form has not been tested in the Autumn. She has been behind Tokyo Tycoon in the features over there and he looks like a gun. Last start the saddle slipped on her and she has trialled well since. D. Lane gets back on and she has a chance.
Verdict: Autumn Ballet (Next Best)
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Randwick Race 4
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Polytrack-Midway C'ships Final (1400m)
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| 16 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 17.5 | 18.5 | 14 | 16.2 | 14 | 15 | 15 | ||||
| 6 | 5.5 | 6 | 6 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6 | 6 | 5.5 | 6 | ||||
| 19 | 18 | 21 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 18 | ||||
| 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | ||||
| 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 11.4 | 12 | 12 | 13 | ||||
| 23 | 23 | 31 | 26 | 34 | 36 | 26 | 20.5 | 26 | 26 | 26 | ||||
| 19 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 24 | 25 | 19 | 20.5 | 18 | 19 | 19 | ||||
| 17 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 21 | 22 | 16 | 14.8 | 16 | 17 | 16 | ||||
| 126 | 91 | 126 | 101 | 140 | 160 | 101 | 111 | 101 | 101 | 101 | ||||
| 6.5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||||
| 16 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 17.5 | 15 | 14.4 | 15 | 15 | 15 | ||||
| 34 | 31 | 34 | 34 | 44 | 46 | 31 | 32 | 34 | 41 | 34 | ||||
| 126 | 101 | 126 | 101 | 130 | 160 | 101 | 101 | 101 | 101 | 101 | ||||
| 126 | 91 | 126 | 101 | 120 | 150 | 101 | 97 | 101 | 126 | 101 | ||||
| 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13.5 | 14 | 13 | 10.8 | 12 | 12 | 13 | ||||
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Market percentage
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116 | 120 | 114 | 117 | 102 | 98 | 119 | 120 | 120 | 118 | 117 | |||
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Quick Bet
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As per usual Kris Lees dominates the race and I'm with him to win it. ACQUITTED (2) loves wet going and was dominant winning at Wyong when taking off a long way from home, sitting deep and belting them. Three of his four wins have come on heavy tracks (the other was synthetic) and the race sets up well for him and Bowman to blend in down the outside.
LOCH EAGLE (3) is another one of the Lees army and was strong winning at Newcastle in his heat. He is another who has won all of his races on soft going. He started a short=priced favourite on this day last year and could easily win this here.
KAYOBI (5) has done nothing wrong in his short career to date and has been the long-time favourite for this race ever since his win at Kembla in October. He relishes wet going, but on the map looks as if he could get buried back on the fence which is a slight concern. With clear running he can win.
CLOUDLAND (9) on soft/heavy going could turn the tables on SHORT SHORTS (11) out of the Kembla race as he gets blinkers on the first time, and has had no issues with wet going in the past. Short Shorts gets synthetic hoof filler for the first time and has been beaten 26L in her last two heavy track runs.
Verdict: Looking for a Bowman special on Aquitted 2x3 Loch Eagle (3) on top following the scratching.
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Randwick Race 5
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Arrowfield 3yo Sprint (1200m)
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| 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.82 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.45 | 2.5 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 5.5 | 5 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5 | 4.8 | 5 | ||||
| 8.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 10 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 9 | 8.5 | 8.5 | ||||
| 34 | 31 | 34 | 35 | 38 | 40 | 31 | 31 | 34 | 34 | 35 | ||||
| 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 18 | 18.8 | 20 | 18 | 20 | ||||
| 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 11 | 11 | 10 | ||||
| 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13.5 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | ||||
| 18 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 19.5 | 21 | 18 | 15.4 | 19 | 18 | 17 | ||||
| 8.5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 8 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8 | 8 | ||||
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Market percentage
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117 | 118 | 114 | 117 | 102 | 99 | 118 | 116 | 112 | 117 | 117 | |||
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Quick Bet
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The strong speed sets this up quite well for AFT CABIN (1) who looks as if he will be sticking to sprint trips going forward. He was dominant in the Eskimo Prince when running away from his opposition in fast time. There are Group 1 winners this spring littered through his form line and despite looking disappointing in the Randwick Guineas, he ran the quickest 8/6/400m splits of the race. He is the one to beat.
WEE NESSY (12) has done nothing wrong this time in when runner-up on both occasions. She had no luck at the Valley last start and the form out of that stacked up well last week with Parisal running well. She is unbeaten on heavy ground and sits behind the speed too.
ZOU TIGER (2) also drops back in trip from the Guineas. He wore blinkers in his trial and moved well and there's no issues with the wet going either.
The race was over for DASHING LEGEND (11) before she went to the gates at Rosehill two starts back and again she didn't parade well last weekend. She gets the pre-race ear muffs to help calm her down a little. She blew them away in the Fireball and is one that wants the track to get into the soft range, as her record is phenomenal in that going.
Verdict: Aft Cabin (BEST BET)
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Randwick Race 6
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The Star Australian Oaks (2400m)
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| 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 5 | 4.65 | 5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | ||||
| 4.8 | 4.8 | 5 | 4.8 | 12.5 | 3.65 | 5 | 4.65 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | ||||
| 6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 7 | 100 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 6 | 7 | 6.5 | 7 | ||||
| 17 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 24 | 65 | 15 | 16.2 | 16 | 16 | 15 | ||||
| 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 65 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.8 | ||||
| 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14.5 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | ||||
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 9 | 95 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 19 | ||||
| 23 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 55 | 25 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 20 | ||||
| 51 | 46 | 61 | 41 | 8.6 | 910 | 41 | 43 | 41 | 51 | 41 | ||||
| 17 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 8.6 | 20 | 17 | 15.8 | 18 | 17 | 16 | ||||
| 61 | 51 | 71 | 51 | 8.6 | 910 | 41 | 51 | 51 | 61 | 51 | ||||
| 61 | 51 | 61 | 51 | 19.5 | 910 | 51 | 53 | 51 | 61 | 51 | ||||
| 71 | 67 | 71 | 67 | 75 | 910 | 61 | 67 | 61 | 67 | 67 | ||||
| 251 | 201 | 351 | 201 | 100 | 980 | 201 | 321 | 201 | 201 | 201 | ||||
| 251 | 201 | 331 | 201 | 8.6 | 960 | 151 | 301 | 201 | 151 | 201 | ||||
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Market percentage
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116 | 119 | 114 | 118 | 107 | 81 | 118 | 120 | 113 | 118 | 118 | |||
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Quick Bet
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PENNYWEKA (1) won the NZ Oaks in brilliant fashion, continuing the awesome run that Satono Aladdin has had to start his stallion career. She does have a tricky gate to contend with, but the way she won the NZ Oaks she is hard to beat here.
FIREBURN (3) was fantastic through the line in the Vinery and the step up to the 2400m looks like it will be no issue whatsoever. She is drawn for a cosy run and will be in the finish.
ARTS (5) trotted in, in the Adrian Knox. History tells you that if you win the Adrian Knox, you will run well in the Oaks. Bowman on is a big tick and the way she won last week, she has to be in this race.
PAVITRA (2) was good in the Vinery but got blown away late by Prowess. She looked to be a touch weak on the line there. Yes she has a 2nd in a VRC Oaks, but it was run in an absolute jog and sprint style that suited her. A strong 2400m will be an issue for her.
JOLTED (13) is the best bred horse running in Australia on the day. She was strong when winning at Newcastle and could be a place chance at huge odds.
Verdict: With the Kiwi Pennyweka
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Randwick Race 7
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Schweppes Sydney Cup (3200m)
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| 7.5 | 7.5 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7.8 | 8 | 7.5 | 8 | ||||
| 15 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 30 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 15 | ||||
| 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 16.5 | 24 | 10 | 9.2 | 11 | 9.5 | 11 | ||||
| 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 30 | 65 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 34 | ||||
| 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 12 | 11.6 | 12 | 11 | 11 | ||||
| 151 | 126 | 151 | 101 | 50 | 970 | 101 | 101 | 101 | 126 | 101 | ||||
| 17 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 12.5 | 16 | 17 | 15.4 | 17 | 17 | 15 | ||||
| 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 13.5 | 24 | 26 | 19.8 | 26 | 26 | 23 | ||||
| 41 | 41 | 51 | 35 | 55 | 750 | 34 | 35 | 41 | 41 | 35 | ||||
| 4.2 | 4 | 4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.05 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.9 | ||||
| 11 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 8.2 | 14.5 | 12 | 10.4 | 13 | 12 | 13 | ||||
| 61 | 51 | 61 | 46 | 34 | 170 | 51 | 43 | 51 | 61 | 46 | ||||
| 6 | 6 | 6.5 | 7 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 6 | 7 | ||||
| 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 16.5 | 16 | 15.6 | 16 | 15 | 15 | ||||
| 41 | 41 | 51 | 41 | 30 | 910 | 34 | 43 | 41 | 41 | 41 | ||||
| 61 | 51 | 71 | 61 | 38 | 270 | 51 | 47 | 51 | 61 | 61 | ||||
| 151 | 101 | 151 | 101 | 70 | 920 | 91 | 101 | 101 | 126 | 101 | ||||
| 251 | 151 | 251 | 151 | 70 | 990 | 126 | 221 | 151 | 151 | 151 | ||||
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Market percentage
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118 | 119 | 114 | 117 | 130 | 88 | 119 | 124 | 113 | 120 | 117 | |||
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Quick Bet
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CLEVELAND (11) had one of the better lead-up runs for a Sydney Cup in the Tancred, when ridden conservatively. But, right from the 1200m he was revved up and really worked to the line better than anything in the race. Sectionally - he had the best last 200m of the race, with the 800/400 the second best of the race. Weighted to win this with only 51kg. Super hard to beat.
KING FRANKEL (14) has done nothing wrong all preparation and is well set to run well once again. He did all of the work in the Tancred and was run down late. He sits just behind the leaders, he handles all going and with 50kg on his back, he is a massive hope.
ARAPAHO (5) is in career-best form after belting them in the Canberra Cup before winning the Tancred. His run in the Melbourne Cup in the Spring was quite good, he was just too far back to have any hope. He is as tough as teak, will run the 3200 no problems and is big odds for a Tancred winner.
BARON SAMEDI (3) goes in off of his form alone. Kyprios and Search For A Song would be short odds here. A winner over 3200m in America before running third in an Irish St Ledger. That is more than good enough for this event, as are his wet track stats.
Verdict: Cleveland and King Frankel
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Randwick Race 8
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Longines Queen Elizabeth Stks (2000m)
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| 2.9 | 2.9 | 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.45 | 3 | 2.65 | 3.1 | 2.85 | 2.9 | ||||
| 2.35 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.48 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 2.25 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | ||||
| 41 | 31 | 41 | 35 | 3 | 55 | 31 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 35 | ||||
| 15 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 1.65 | 19.5 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 17 | ||||
| 26 | 23 | 26 | 21 | 2 | 30 | 21 | 23.5 | 26 | 23 | 21 | ||||
| 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 2.8 | 12.5 | 12 | 10.2 | 11 | 9.5 | 10 | ||||
| 34 | 34 | 51 | 35 | 2.42 | 55 | 26 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 35 | ||||
| 71 | 67 | 81 | 81 | 2.1 | 90 | 81 | 65 | 71 | 81 | 81 | ||||
| 51 | 51 | 51 | 41 | 2 | 60 | 31 | 53 | 34 | 51 | 41 | ||||
| 16 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 20 | 15 | 18.2 | 17 | 16 | 16 | ||||
| 34 | 27 | 34 | 34 | 1.65 | 40 | 31 | 35 | 34 | 34 | 34 | ||||
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Market percentage
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115 | 119 | 114 | 117 | 464 | 73 | 117 | 120 | 113 | 119 | 117 | |||
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Quick Bet
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ANAMOE (1) has his Australian swansong here and couldn't have done more this preparation winning all three starts this time in. His George Ryder win was tough and was a slight regression on his second-up win. When you dig into his fourth-up record, it is phenomenal. It reads as such: 2nd in the Golden Slipper - 2nd in the Cox Plate 2021 - a 6.5L Rosehill Guineas win - the Cox Plate 2022 win. You could very easily argue he should be unbeaten fourth-up. It doesn't take a genius to figure out he is ready to explode.
DUBAI HONOUR (2) couldn't have been more impressive in his first Australian start, winning in a canter. His last 600m was only 0.06 slower than Anamoe. From the gate he can stalk Anamoe and make his move when Marquand wants. William Haggas has won this race twice and both times his horse was second-up.
CASCADIAN (4) was phenomenal when winning the Australian Cup and the form out of the All-Star Mile has stacked up immensely. Nothing seems to bother him going wise and if the top two are off their game he can win.
UNICORN LION (7) is the leader and Yoshito Yahagi is one of the best trainers in the world. This horse is not here for no reason. His wet track form however is a real concern, beaten 17 and 20L in his two 'soft' track runs. He looks a rung below some of the Japanese horses that have come out to Australia, but it seems folly to knock the horse.
ALENQUER (3) should be given another chance. On softer going, he beat State of Rest in a group one last year.
Verdict: Anamoe.
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Randwick Race 9
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Sydney Queen Of The Turf Stks (1600m)
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| 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.55 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.55 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | ||||
| 7.5 | 7.5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9.2 | 7 | 8.1 | 8 | 7.5 | 8 | ||||
| 15 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 890 | 14 | 14.2 | 15 | 15 | 14 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.7 | 17 | 5 | 4.95 | 5.5 | 5 | 5 | ||||
| 61 | 61 | 71 | 61 | 26 | 910 | 61 | 63 | 61 | 61 | 61 | ||||
| 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6.2 | 12 | 6 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6 | 6 | ||||
| 11 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 19.5 | 10 | 9.8 | 11 | 10 | 10 | ||||
| 34 | 31 | 34 | 31 | 20 | 270 | 34 | 35 | 34 | 29 | 31 | ||||
| 26 | 23 | 26 | 26 | 17 | 90 | 21 | 19.6 | 26 | 23 | 26 | ||||
| 21 | 23 | 26 | 23 | 17.5 | 890 | 21 | 23.5 | 23 | 21 | 23 | ||||
| 34 | 35 | 41 | 41 | 34 | 910 | 34 | 29.5 | 41 | 41 | 41 | ||||
| 51 | 41 | 51 | 51 | 24 | 910 | 41 | 45 | 41 | 41 | 51 | ||||
| 26 | 23 | 26 | 31 | 5.9 | 95 | 26 | 22 | 31 | 23 | 31 | ||||
| 251 | 201 | 301 | 201 | 34 | 960 | 151 | 221 | 201 | 151 | 201 | ||||
| 81 | 81 | 101 | 71 | 21 | 920 | 91 | 83 | 71 | 91 | 71 | ||||
| 201 | 126 | 201 | 126 | 42 | 210 | 151 | 151 | 126 | 126 | 126 | ||||
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Market percentage
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117 | 119 | 114 | 117 | 147 | 56 | 119 | 119 | 112 | 120 | 117 | |||
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Quick Bet
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This race hinges on how ALCOHOL FREE (1) turns up. If she is 90 percent ready to go, she will win this and win it well. She is a four-time G1 winner which includes a Sussex Stakes and July Cup in the UK and none of the mares in this race could do that. The trial leading in was good and JMac sticks aboard in another tick. The market will be telling.
The best run in all of the lead-ups was ATISHU (8) who was ridden to peak in this race. Clear best last 8/6/4/200m of the race and on the day was ranked 2nd or 3rd in those categories. She draws well for Nash, can sit a touch closer in the run and handles all going.
LEVANTE (3) had next to no luck in the George Ryder and the form out of that race is always strong as is her form this time in, over in NZ. Some cut in the ground greatly enhances her chances.
HOPE IN YOUR HEART (5) was one of the runs of the race in the Doncaster where the gate cost her running in the placings if not winning the race. Back to nares grade is suitable and she gets a cosy run.
If they leave SIRILEO MISS (7) on her own in front, she will give them something to catch. She has run PBs at her past two and has phenomenal 1600m stats.
FANGIRL (2) wants it to be a Soft 6 or better. Any worse, as shown in the Doncaster last weekend, she just can't accelerate as well as we know. On good going, only Anamoe and I Wish I Win have beaten her in a feature race. If it dries out, she is in the race.
Verdict: Two bet play. Alcohol Free and each way Atishu
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Randwick Race 10
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Tab Sapphire Stakes (1200m)
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| 9.5 | 9.5 | 10 | 9.5 | 11 | 16.5 | 9 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9 | 9.5 | ||||
| 13 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 23 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 13 | ||||
| 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 10 | 9.7 | 11 | 11 | 11 | ||||
| 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.45 | 2.7 | 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | 2.25 | 2.45 | ||||
| 21 | 18 | 21 | 18 | 12 | 29 | 21 | 16.2 | 19 | 20 | 18 | ||||
| 17 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 7.6 | 20 | 17 | 15.4 | 16 | 17 | 16 | ||||
| 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8 | 11 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8 | ||||
| 34 | 31 | 34 | 31 | 13.5 | 130 | 31 | 29.5 | 31 | 29 | 31 | ||||
| 10 | 9.5 | 10 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 9 | 9 | 8.1 | 9 | 9.5 | 8.5 | ||||
| 61 | 61 | 71 | 61 | 38 | 1000 | 41 | 63 | 51 | 51 | 61 | ||||
| 18 | 20 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 130 | 19 | 23 | 20 | 23 | 21 | ||||
| 151 | 101 | 151 | 101 | 50 | 1000 | 91 | 161 | 101 | 126 | 101 | ||||
| 81 | 67 | 81 | 81 | 44 | 1000 | 81 | 83 | 81 | 81 | 81 | ||||
| 126 | 101 | 301 | 126 | 38 | 520 | 81 | 201 | 101 | 126 | 126 | ||||
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Market percentage
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118 | 119 | 114 | 117 | 132 | 78 | 120 | 120 | 119 | 119 | 117 | |||
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Quick Bet
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Does this just set up too well for ZAPATEO (4) once again here? She smashed them in the Birthday Card at Rosehill and from gate 15, McDonald can have her out of trouble. She should arguably have not missed a place on soft going as of yet and her heavy track form is solid.
NEVER TALK (9) could sit closer with the blinkers going on for the first time. She loves wet going but her racing pattern means she has not won as many races as she should have. She has a ripping turn of foot and can finish over the top of them.
JAL LEI (6) gets a big jockey change with Marquand going on board. She has come back a better horse this time in, and was very good in the Birthday Card. She will run well once again from the good gate.
No idea what to do with PRINCESS GRACE (1). She has never run below a mile and kicks off at 1200m. She has had the two trials leading in which have been quite good and she is a winner first-up in the past.
EXPAT (3) is now with Joe Pride and has a host of gear changes. Is yet to win at Randwick but has won 7 races on wet going.
Verdict: Zapateo and Never Talk
BEST BET
Race 5 No. 1 AFT CABIN
The Blue Jackets and JMac let us down last week, but this bloke looks to be a class above. His trial since the last run was great, he can run splits the others cannot. Only Jacquinot has beaten him at 1200m.
James Mc Donald (56.5kg)
James Cummings
4yoH (b) Astern x Shelters
Career
14 4-2-2
Earnings
$1,286,200
Wins
28.57%
Places
57.14%
Last 10
10 2-0-2
Win Range
1200-1400m
1st up
3 1-1-1
2nd up
3 1-0-0
Dist
7 2-2-1
Track
6 2-0-2
Trk/Dist
4 2-0-1
Jockey
7 2-0-2
Firm
0 0-0-0
Good
6 1-0-1
Soft
3 1-1-0
Heavy
4 2-1-0
Race 3 No. 3 AUTUMN BALLET
She was the first horse in history to win the Black Opal on debut, sitting behind the leaders and exploding away. The trial since was fantastic, and she looks to have tremendous upside.
Tim Clark (56kg)
G & A Waterhouse & Bott
3yoF (b) The Autumn Sun x Grisi
Career
7 2-0-0
Earnings
$330,700
Wins
28.57%
Places
28.57%
Last 10
7 2-0-0
Win Range
1200m
1st up
3 2-0-0
2nd up
3 0-0-0
Dist
5 2-0-0
Track
6 1-0-0
Trk/Dist
4 1-0-0
Jockey
2 1-0-0
Firm
0 0-0-0
Good
1 0-0-0
Soft
5 2-0-0
Heavy
1 0-0-0
Race 2 No. 12 STYLISED
Resumes a gelding and has no issues with wet going. Gets a good run on the map and comes out of a hot race in the spring where he was just behind the placegetters. Looks like a lovely kick off point.
Zac Lloyd (53kg)
James Cummings
4yoG (br) Kermadec x Monogram
Career
10 1-1-1
Earnings
$83,825
Wins
10%
Places
30%
Last 10
10 1-1-1
Win Range
1400m
1st up
3 0-1-0
2nd up
3 1-0-0
Dist
5 1-0-0
Track
1 0-0-0
Trk/Dist
1 0-0-0
Jockey
4 0-1-0
Firm
0 0-0-0
Good
6 1-1-1
Soft
1 0-0-0
Heavy
2 0-0-0
Race 6 No. 2 PAVITRA
Not convinced she will run out a strong 2500m as her sectionals late in the Vinery weren't the strongest and a genuine heavy track is a concern.
James Mc Donald (56kg)
R & W Freedman
3yoF (br) American Pharoah x Gypsy Robin
Career
12 3-3-1
Earnings
$558,605
Wins
25%
Places
58.33%
Last 10
10 3-3-1
Win Range
1500-1860m
1st up
2 0-0-0
2nd up
2 1-0-0
Dist
1 0-0-0
Track
2 0-0-0
Trk/Dist
1 0-0-0
Jockey
1 0-0-0
Firm
0 0-0-0
Good
5 2-2-0
Soft
3 1-1-0
Heavy
4 0-0-1
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