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Black Book

Lays of the day with Betfair: Saturday, March 9

Mollynickers looks a vulnerable favourite Mollynickers looks a vulnerable favourite Image: Getty

See which fancied runners the Punters and Betfair form analysts are keen to take on around Australia on Saturday, March 9.

READ: Flemington race-by-race previews and tips
READ: Randwick Guineas day analysis and tips



James Lamb (Punters)

Flemington R6 No. 6 - Mollynickers @ $3.80

This is a deep fillies race, with Serasana, Grinzinger Belle, Autumn Angel and Into You all serious dangers to Mollynickers. The Moody-trained filly ran home solidly without threat here on resumption and the rise in trip should suit. She might just need one more run before really hitting her straps though, based on how the stable's runners have been performing first and second-up in 2024.

Ben Melham (56kg) P & K Moody & Coleman 3yoF (b) Pierro x Just One Moment
Rating 78
Career
10 2-1-3
Earnings
$299,800
Wins
20%
Places
60%
Last 10
10 2-1-3
Win Range
1208-1400m
1st up
3 1-1-1
2nd up
2 1-0-1
Dist
3 0-0-1
Track
2 0-0-2
Trk/Dist
1 0-0-1
Jockey
3 0-0-2
Firm
0 0-0-0
Good
8 1-0-3
Soft
1 0-1-0
Heavy
1 1-0-0

Jackson Oldham (Betfair) 

Flemington R7 No. 1 - Berkshire Shadow (rated at $5.50)

Strongly against Berkshire Shadow, who has jumped out plainly against a M Walker horse who started $31 and got beaten 3L at Pakenham last Thursday night, I would be surprised if he doesn’t need the run and should drift late once the yard watchers get a hold of him. Amenable has been gelded and if his jumpouts are any guide, should start delivering on the G1 promise he has always shown, he should be winning here.

Mark Zahra (59kg) Ciaron Maher 5yoG (gr) Dark Angel x Angel Vision
Rating 106
Career
19 4-1-2
Earnings
$366,044
Wins
21.05%
Places
36.84%
Last 10
10 2-0-1
Win Range
1037-1614m
1st up
5 3-0-0
2nd up
4 1-1-0
Dist
5 1-1-0
Track
1 0-0-0
Trk/Dist
1 0-0-0
Jockey
1 0-0-0
Firm
0 0-0-0
Good
14 2-0-2
Soft
1 0-1-0
Heavy
1 0-0-0

Linton Chataway (Betfair)

Randwick R6 No. 6 - Passive Aggressive (rated at $13)

Yet to win on a good track (has not attempted) but it is well documented that the stable prefers to find rain affected tracks for her races and if she lines up in this on a good track I can't see her winning under these circumstances.

Jordan Childs (56.5kg) Grahame Begg 5yoM (b) Fastnet Rock x Miss Judgement
Rating 107
Career
11 6-0-0
Earnings
$807,725
Wins
54.55%
Places
54.55%
Last 10
10 5-0-0
Win Range
1000-1200m
1st up
4 3-0-0
2nd up
3 1-0-0
Dist
2 2-0-0
Track
3 2-0-0
Trk/Dist
2 2-0-0
Jockey
11 6-0-0
Firm
0 0-0-0
Good
2 1-0-0
Soft
7 5-0-0
Heavy
1 0-0-0

Linton Chataway (Betfair)

Randwick R10 No. 5 - Call Di (rated at $8)

She is a good mare on her day but she failed to win last prep and although having her first start for the new stable she will be better placed when out to 1400m+ this prep.

Regan Bayliss (54.5kg) Joseph Pride 4yoM (b) Frankel x Samantha Miss
Rating 91
Career
13 1-3-3
Earnings
$268,350
Wins
7.69%
Places
53.85%
Last 10
10 0-3-2
Win Range
1400m
1st up
4 1-1-0
2nd up
4 0-1-2
Dist
3 0-0-0
Track
2 0-0-1
Trk/Dist
1 0-0-0
Jockey
1 0-0-0
Firm
0 0-0-0
Good
11 1-3-2
Soft
1 0-0-1
Heavy
0 0-0-0

Tom Biddington (Punters)

Murray Bridge R5 No. 9 - Billie Bronx

Mare who can be hit or miss and got rolled as a $1.90 favourite last start in an easier race. She's only won one of her past seven starts and would rather be on others at the price.

Margaret Collett (55kg) Peter Hardacre 4yoM (bay/brown) Manhattan Rain x Gauss
Rating 66
Career
11 3-3-1
Earnings
$96,750
Wins
27.27%
Places
63.64%
Last 10
10 2-3-1
Win Range
1400-1506m
1st up
3 2-1-0
2nd up
2 0-0-0
Dist
5 2-1-0
Track
3 1-1-0
Trk/Dist
3 1-1-0
Jockey
2 0-2-0
Firm
0 0-0-0
Good
8 3-1-1
Soft
2 0-1-0
Heavy
0 0-0-0

Share your thoughts

sunline02
8/1 “LAY” gets up and wins…hopeless