Caulfield preview
Dissident is shooting for a third straight Group One win
Preview the quaddie legs of a bumper Caulfield program, including the Group One Sir Rupert Clarke Charity Cup. Double your stake if you're nursing a Grand Final hangover!
The Caulfield surface is currently rated a Dead 4 after 18mm of rain on Wednesday night. There are a few showers around until Sunday but nothing of too much significance, so we should be racing on a track rated Dead or better. The rail is in the true position.
3.25pm Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m)
The fillies take on the Caulfield 1400m with $120,000 on offer to the winner. Gregers won this race last year but it has thrown up a couple of upsets of late, with Lady Of Harrods ($10) and Bliss Street ($21) scoring surprise victories in the preceding two editions (the race was previously known as the Tranquil Star).
Tempo
Traveston Girl might be able to take advantage of her good gate and get a reasonably soft lead here. High Above can cross from out wide with Bring Me The Maid and Novel Dancer also likely to take up a good position from favourable barriers. Lumosty, Go Indy Go and Sabatini will be ridden cold from their wider gates.
Analysis
Happy to forgive Traveston Girl's fourth at Flemington at her Melbourne debut. The Queensland filly was caught on the inside section of the straight track (middle/outside of the track was clearly the place to be) and she battled on solidly for a 3.6L fourth. Back to a track with a bend will suit Tony Gollan's filly and she can take full advantage of a perfect barrier. Traveston Girl served notice of her potential when destroying her rivals by 5.5L from the front over 1200m at Doomben in July - would like to see her lead them up here.
Traveston Girl has demonstrated sizzling pace in her home state.
We can also forget Bring Me The Maid went around in the Golden Rose after Luke Nolen had desperate trouble extricating her from a pocket. Peter Moody's filly is all class and can show her true colours back to her own sex - she is very much the danger.
Lumosty is a daughter of Fastnet Rock with a bright future. She was terrific first-up in the Cap D'Antibes when she was held-up in a pocket at a crucial stage, before looming up to win but just being edged-out by Afleet Esprit. Her two runs in the Blue Diamond preview/prelude in the autumn pointed to her appreciating further, so the 1400m looks ideal. Feel she might just be better suited to a bigger field with more pace on.
Afleet Esprit is surely a silly price after taking Lumosty's scalp last start. The Hayes-Dabernig stable has struck a rich vein of form of late and Damien Oliver should get a cushy run with the rails draw.
Pickin' Time was luckless behind the smart Thinking Of You her at Caulfield last Saturday - she can figure in the finish with a softer run in transit. Include Go Indy Go in the quaddie - they haven't been able to find anything wrong with her after a shocking first-up effort but she's a Group One winner!
Verdict
Giving Traveston Girl another chance.4.00pm Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m)
This year's Guineas Prelude has attracted a capacity field, with Looks Like The Cat and Rich Enuff heading the early markets. Darley/Godolphin have had a good record in this race in recent years with Demerit (2009), Helmet (2011) and Epaulette (2012) all saluting.
Tempo
With the big field engaged the colts and geldings should definitely run along. Rich Enuff probably has no choice but to go forward from the horror alley whilst Kiwi visitor Our Vespa has also shown good early toe at home. Waterhouse pair Wandjina and the rogue Liberation will also be right in the firing line up on what should be a hot pace. The Queenslanders Soldi Domani and Lucky Tom also won't be far away.
Analysis
Very excited about Looks Like The Cat as a horse, and think he can win this on his way to greater things in the Caulfield Guineas in a fortnight's time. Tony Gollan's gelding is a versatile customer who should be able to take up a good position from the middle draw, and has the services of gun jockey Damien Browne to help him navigate Caulfield for the first time. Looks Like The Cat would have gone very close to beating Almalad in the Group One JJ Atkins in the winter if not for bad luck, and returned with a terrific effort up the straight to run the low-flying Rich Enuff to a neck margin. Suspect the extra furlong of this assignment suits him more than it does Rich Enuff (who admittedly himself could be a star).The barrier hurts Rich Enuff and it is enough to have put me off him, despite his immense ability. Had some doubts on him running out an especially strong 1400m (given how quickly he scorches the turf over 1200m!) and gate 18 of 18 has compounded them. Not writing him off by any means but can't tip him on top...
Ghibellines, Stingray and Awesome Rock finished close together when not at all disgraced in Rich Enuff's Danehill Stakes and all have solid claims again here. Ghibellines may well have the most scope for improvement of that trio...
Liberation trialled HORRENDOUSLY at Randwick on 11 September. Prior to that he skittled half the field in the Group Three Up And Coming when ducking off the track twice in the home straight. Not much to recommend him then, you would think, but there is something about this horse that suggests he can win a race like this on his day.... The Melbourne way of going may well straighten him up given his tendency to duck away from the rail in Sydney.
Which Liberation will turn up on Sunday?
Zebulon is a colt of serious quality who caught the eye flashing home from the tail of the field at Flemington behind Merion and Chivalry. If Stephen Baster can be in touch with them rounding the bend few will be steaming to the line as quickly as this son of All American. Also engaged for the Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley on Friday night.
Our Vespa has won five from seven in his native New Zealand, including the Group One Diamond Stakes at Ellerslie. He put in a very tough effort winning a listed race over 1200m first-up, and this son of Elusive City certainly knows how to find when asked for an effort. Nice horse who has earned his place here; Kiwi sprinting form is always questionable however.
Verdict
Looks Like The Cat.4.40pm Sir Rupert Clarke Charity Cup (1400m)
Sunday's 1400m Group One Sir Rupert Clarke Charity Cup looks a terrific competitive renewal of the race, with several up-and-coming gallopers looking to notch their first elite-level successes.
Tempo
Blessed with abundant speed, Sistine Demon will boot across from the wide barrier with Sweet Idea and Tommy Berry to provide the stiffest opposition for the lead inside him. Expecting a solid enough clip in front but probably nothing too hectic.Trust In A Gust could well be caught wide early with Dissident, Atlante, Late Charge and A Time For Julia all likely to make the most of favourable inside barriers and try and take up a position. Inside draws normally a big tick at the Caulfield 1400m!
Given their get-back racing patterns the wide barriers are not overly disadvantageous for Cluster, Speediness or Bull Point (the Caulfield 1400m start is, however). As ever they will need the race to be run genuinely to figure in the finish.
Analysis
Great betting race under the handicap conditions.Going a bit on ‘instinct' here but think Sistine Demon comes into this second-up with a very strong winning chance. He showed good pace to lead first-up over the Flemington 1200m and finished the best of those horses forced to the worst ground on the inner half of the track (finished fifth beaten 3L). Speediness and Akavoroun put in real eye-catchers in that race but Sistine Demon's on-speed effort should not be underestimated. The flashy chestnut is unbeaten in five starts at 1400m, and last time he was at this track and trip he thrashed them by 6L. Andrew Noblet's gelding makes his own luck and should have a strong kick up his sleeve in the home straight.
The topweight Dissident is absolutely flying, having notched two Group One wins from as many starts this campaign. He won spectacularly over this course on 30 August when taking out the Memsie Stakes in dominant fashion fresh. The son of Sebring is conceding significant weight to the rest of the field, but that is surely the only knock on him. Drawn beautifully again back to 1400m shouldn't pose any problems.
Cluster might be ready to take the next step here after recording his long-awaited first stakes victory in the Theo Marks a fortnight ago. Fancy he can be the best of the swoopers if they do go hard up front...
Cluster is finally starting to realise his immense potential.
It was almost criminal that Atlante beat Trust In A Gust home at the Valley
(when they met over six
furlongs on 6 September) after the latter did a power of work wide throughout. The Darren Weir-trained galloper showed just what he
could do with a good run in transit when an effortless Caulfield winner last
Saturday over the 1400m. Barrier makes it very tricky but Trust In A Gust is a
winner (won 8 from 15!).
Akavaroun is another knockout hope. Ciaran Maher's five-year-old was excellent first-up behind Chautauqua and can stay within striking distance from barrier three - has shown huge promise from the outset but perhaps needs to prove he belongs at this level first.
Impossible to knock Sweet Idea but you can't tip them all!
Verdict
Sistine Demon should be able to overcome the barrier, like him on an each-way basis.5.15pm Testa Rossa Stakes (1200m)
Capacity field to finish the card and this sprint looks tough on paper!
Tempo
Mark Du Plessis can send Queenslander State Of Wealth forward from gate 5. Likewise Turqouise King should be up there from a similar gate, whilst Happy Galaxy may well be fired up fresh and charge across from out wide for Tommy Berry. Vain Queen can tuck in just behind the leaders.
Analysis
Target In Sight could not go a yard early over the 1000m on a heavy track in the Concorde at Randwick. He only hit his straps in the final 100m and his 3.2L second-last of eight was better than it looks in the form guide. Out to his optimum distance now (8:4-3-1) at 1200m, expect this improving five-year-old to come home with a wet sail for Craig Williams.
Joe Pride's recent stable acquisition Target In Sight has a booming sprint on his day.
Much has been said about the ride Vain Queen
received from Williams in her last run at Caulfield, when she was hopelessly
held up after being ridden quietly. Like the month or so between runs for this
mare - expect her to go very close with just 53.5kg after Thomas Sadler's
claim.
In Cahoots was beaten 2.6L by the low-flying Chautauqua at Flemington and 2L by the ultra-impressive Terravista (defeating Bull Point) the start prior. This four-year-old is lightly raced and extremely progressive - he can win this!
Really liked Territory's latest trial behind Manawanui. He's ticking over very nicely and enjoys significant weight relief from his barnstorming Rosehill victory on 16 August. Does tend to mix his form a touch but he hasn't been floated south to simply make up the numbers.
Turquoise King (knows how to win), Lion Of Belfort (good first-up in strong race) and Watermans Bay (WA sprinter who could be the blowout at first start for Kav) should all go in your quaddies.
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