Catching the Worm

The Winter Carnival moves from Doomben to Eagle Farm on Saturday with the highlight the Group One Queensland Oaks and that is supported by four other Group Two races.

The first of the Group Two races is the Eagle Farm Cup (Race 2) and while it has only attracted a small field, it looks a fairly straight forward assignment for punters. Shoot Out, Glass Harmonium and Scenic Shot do battle again after the Doomben Cup and the question is whether Shoot Out or Glass Harmonium can turn the tables on Scenic Shot. Our traders suggest yes for Glass Harmonium. Over raced on the last occasion and was still just beaten a lip and is the horse with the most upside. The Moroney stable will also be happy to put Lisa Cropp on as rider. Scenic Shot had the saloon passage to win last start, but is such a strong horse he is always hard to beat. It is last chance for Shoot Out who is making a habit of hitting the line well when the race is over. It's a case of arriving at the "OK Corral" too late. With respect to the others it looks a three horse race.

Shoot Out $3.00, Glass Harmonium $3.20, Scenic Shot $3.60, Fanjura $12.00, Triple Honour $15.00, Persian Star $26.00.

Race 4 is the Group two Sire Produce Stakes over 1400 metres for two year olds where our traders think that Peter Snowden holds all the aces here. There is not much between Benfica and Free Wheeling. Benfica looks bombproof and second up over 1400 metres is fine, although the trainer might be looking further ahead to the T J Smith over the mile. If that is the case, then Free Wheeling is the top pick. Still learning, but obviously has the ability to win this and third up is perfect. The only danger to the Darley stable is the kiwi Dowager Queen. Like Benfica, could be headed to the T J Smith, but the form in NZ is very good, already beating the older horses at Listed WFA level. Shanghai Bund is the best at odds, scratched last week, but that doesn't mean that this is any harder, although drawn a tricky gate. Hot Snitzel was extremely disappointing last start and is the 'lay of the day'. Maybe the Gold Coast win was due to the wet track and Nash Rawiller being the pilot.

Benfica $3.00, Free Wheeling $4.60, Hot Snitzel $5.00, Dowager Queen $7.00, Mahisara $10.00, Show A Prince $12.00, Shanghai Bund $14.00, Others $31.00 & above.

The Dane Ripper Stakes (Race 5) looks harder than Arnold Schwarzenegger's biceps and more difficult than his lawyer trying to negotiate an alimony settlement. A full field of 18 and a couple of talented emergencies just dying to get a run as well. Our traders suggest that punters be wary as there are many chances. Kanzan is the favourite and although she is impossible to knock and won't surprise if she wins there are others representing better value. Palacio De Cristal gets on to a big track so drawing wide won't hurt her chances likewise Kanzan's stablemate Jerezana. Yosei is a Group One winner meeting these at a reasonable weight so could surprise, while Zero Rock may go across from barrier 13 and be hard to run down unless challenged by Returntosender or Lady's Angel; both also with a chance of winning. Jasminka is a 'roughie' who has ability and is better suited to Eagle Farm while St Germaine drops 2.5 kg from her last start second, she just has to get into the field. Punters playing quaddies need to go wide here.

Kanzan $5.50, Zero Rock $7.00, Varenna Miss $8.00, St Germaine $9.00, Jasminka $10.00, Lady's Angel $11.00, Jerezana $12.00, Yosei $14.00, Others $15.00 & above.

Race 6 is the QTC Cup with many of these eyeing off the Stradbroke Handicap next week. Sincero is the favourite and the horse to beat. It is his first real test, but he drops down to 52.5 kg, Tim Clark takes the ride and should get a sweet run from his inside barrier. Next in the market is Curtana, from the Moody stable and racing well, but has drawn wide and is racing the opposite way for the first time so she is a small query. The best value runner is King Pulse. Blinkers and Lisa Cropp on for the first time should not be ignored. Varenna Miss will more than likely run in this race and while she has drawn far too wide, the improvement in her is there and being at "the Farm" will help. Another 'roughie' at odds is Rightfully Yours. No luck last start at the Gold Coast and he has been given a trial to freshen up. Falino must also be included as he drops 4kg in weight and Chris Munce jumps on. He is a strong horse on the up.

Sincero $2.80, Curtana $5.00, Varenna Miss $7.00, Listen Son $7.50, Falino $12.00, Motspur $21.00, Zingaling $21.00, King Pulse $21.00, Others $21.00 & above.

The feature event of the day is the Group One Queensland Oaks (Race 7), run over 2400 metres. No surprises that our traders can't go past the favourite Scarlett Lady. Ultra impressive winning 'The Roses', and it is doubtful anything coming out of that race can beat her. She won like she has been doing back in NZ and the step up to 2400 is perfect. The top weight, Divorces is a 'lay'. The extra distance is a query and she won't beat Scarlett Lady on her last run. Heidilicious appeals as the best chance to upset the favourite. She botched the start but then flew home behind Scarlett Lady and she is bred to run all day. Shez Sinsational comes over from New Zealand and is not to be taken lightly as she will get a lovely run from barrier two and her form back home suggests she will get the distance. Fillydelphia comes back from running against the males, but three runs in three weeks raises serious questions over her. Best 'roughie' is Savannah's Choice. Only claimed late in 'The Roses' and trainer Chris Waller knows how to get his horses to run the 'mile and a half'

Scarlett Lady $3.40, Heidilicious $6.00, Divorces $8.00, Fibrillation $8.00, Shez Sensational $8.50, Fillydelphia $10.00, Becerra $21.00, Others $21.00 & above.

Doomben Snapshot

Best Bet - St Germaine
Best Roughie - Palacio De Cristal
Lay of the Day - Hot Snitzel