10 horses who could become Group 1 winners in 2021
Here are 10 horses we at Punters.com.au believe have the potential to record maiden Group One wins in 2020.
JAMES LAMB
AEGON (NZ)
Yes, he's already won a G1 in New Zealand - the G1 New Zealand 2000 Guineas (1600m) - but we are talking Australian G 1s here. The Baker and Forsman-trained son of Sacred Falls has won three from three in New Zealand, kicking off his career with a brilliant last-to-first victory over 1300m at Taupo (below).
Since that stylish debut win, Aegon has scored over 1400m at Hastings and 1600m at Riccarton, displaying a real will to win on both occasions. He's bred to get out over a trip, so what's he's achieved in his short career to date is most impressive, and most encouraging from a 2000m+ perspective. The race he won last start boasts an impressive recent honour roll that includes Jimmy Choux, Sacred Falls, Turn Me Loose, Xtravagant and Catalyst. Aegon is co-trained by a man in Murray Baker who knows exactly what it takes to win a Group 1 in Australia.
Ideal G1 target/s: Rosehill Guineas (2000m) on March 20, ATC Derby (2400m) at Randwick on April 3.
AIN'TNODEELDUN
Connections of this colt are certainly thinking he can measure up at the top level, given they recently rejected offers of between $2 million and $2.5 million for the promising stayer. The son of Dundeel is only a Listed winner at this stage, but went to the paddock on the back of three straight victories. His latest win in the Listed Connoisseur Stakes (1800m) at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day was encouraging given he was ridden differently to previous starts (forward from a wide alley) and was left in front a fair way from home.
Previously, Ain'tnodeeldun came from off the speed in the Listed Hill Smith Stakes (1800m) to defeat Victoria Quay, a horse who went on to claim the G2 Wakeful Stakes (2000m) at Flemington (defeating Personal who then won the G1 VRC Oaks). The form around him has stacked up nicely and the Freedmans certainly haven't rushed him, bypassing what looked a winnable G1 Victoria Derby (2500m).Ultimate Edition tried to run away with it but Ain'tnodeeldun was given a sweet ride and the talented @FreedmanRacing galloper won very impressively.
— Racing.com (@Racing) November 3, 2020
This horse is certainly worth following into the Autumn. pic.twitter.com/2KsHAg0MMv
Ideal G1 target/s: Rosehill Guineas (2000m) on March 20, ATC Derby (2400m) at Randwick on April 3, South Australian Derby (2500m) at Morphettville on May 8.
JACK FITZPATRICK
PREZADO
Speculative selection this, considering there's probably only one realistic G1 option for him on the calendar - and when I say realistic, it's still a throw at the stumps. We know he's a Flemington specialist - five of his six career wins have come at Headquarters - and he doesn't enjoy racing around a bend, so that limits him to the Black Caviar Lightning, Newmarket Handicap and Darley Sprint Classic. Add the fact he's only ever won at 1000m, and that singles out the Lightning.
While the Lightning might seem a stretch too far for a horse who resumed at The Valley with a solid but unspectacular third at Listed level, was then reasonably well-held by Fabergino and has only ever won a Handicap race, he does have a few things in his favour. The first is that, in three of the last four years, the Lightning has been won by a horse at double-figure odds - Terravista in 2017 ($15), Redkirk Warrior in 2018 ($10) and Gytrash in 2020 ($21). In two of those, they beat odds-on favourites - Redzel in 2018 ($1.85) and Nature Strip ($1.45) earlier in 2020. We can put this down to the fact the Newmarket Handicap and TJ Smith are the two sprinting jewels in the crown of the autumn, which often means the absolute a-grade sprinters either miss the Lightning, or head into it underdone. Additionally, the Oakleigh Plate is a week later - if you have an up-and-comer, you're better suited there under the handicap conditions than the weight-for-age scale of the Lightning.
The second thing Prezado has in his favour is that his times stack up. His three wins over the Flemington 1000m earlier this year came in 56.81 (Good 4), 56.49 (Good 4) and 57.61 (Soft 5), and in the last two he carried 59kg (0.5kg more than he would in the Lightning). His 57.61 on a Soft 5 is only 0.08 outside Gytrash's 57.53 winning time this year - also on a Soft 5 - and he carried 0.5kg more. His 56.49 on a Good 4 is equally comparable, again 0.5kg over the weight-for-age scale but well and truly in the mix with In Her Time (56.69), Redkirk Warrior (56.33) and Terravista (57.26). It's also worth noting that those three all came on Good 3 tracks.
Times aren't everything and it's impossible to compare them - especially on different days - but it shows he's thereabouts. Let's also remember that, back in January 2018, he ran Nature Strip to within 0.75L down the Flemington straight - although this time over 1100m.
Ideal G1 target/s: Clearly on the case I've made, the Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) on February 13.
ENTHAAR
While Prezado was plucked out of left-field as my first selection, my second horse - Enthaar - wasn't as hard to find. The spruik was on this filly before she made her debut - on the back of a scintillating trial, she started $1.60 in the Gimcrack. The hype was more than justified, too - she sat three-wide throughout and put her opposition away in a couple of strides upon straightening. The comfortable 3L could've been much more and cemented her place as Golden Slipper favourite.
A lot can go wrong with 2YOs and futures betting is fraught with danger, but she looks to be absolutely top class. The Maher/Eustace camp have a great recent record with 2YOs and having won so early, they can plot whatever path they want. She's currently back in Victoria at Caulfield and is being aimed at the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper double, where she sits atop the betting for both. Whether it be in the coming autumn or next spring, I'll be surprised if she's not one of the more dominant horses of her year.Enthaar is the Golden Slipper favourite for a reason! That's a cracking debut from the @cmaherracing-Eustace Filly to take out Race 2 at Randwick! pic.twitter.com/njvOu9Gpwu
— Sky Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 3, 2020
Ideal G1 target/s: The Blue Diamond (1200m) and Golden Slipper (1200m) as a 2YO, or the Flight Stakes (1600m), 1000 Guineas (1600m) or Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) as a 3YO.
NICK HLUCHANIUK
CAMINO REAL
The two-year-old Godolphin filly has only had the one start, running fifth in the Kirkham Plate at $13 behind Tiger Of Malay. She stretched out nicely late to register the quickest final 200m in the 1000m race and certainly looks like a filly that will appreciate getting out beyond the sprint trips.
She's by Shamardal, who has sired the likes of VRC Classic winner Delectation, top sprinter-miler Pinatubo, champion HK miler Able Friend along with Oaks winners Faint Perfume (VRC) and Maybe Discreet (SA) and stayer Puissance de Lune. So his progeny have certainly been versatile, but a mile and beyond is where the majority of the success has been.Tiger of Malay pounces to take out the first at Randwick 🐯@Freedman_bros @NewgateFarm pic.twitter.com/T1RUX60cBp
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 24, 2020
Her mum Ventura (by Lonhro), had five minor placings from six starts for Godolphin before being retired to the breeding barn.
There will be options like the G2 Reisling (1200m) or G3 Magic Night (1200m) earlier in the autumn, but it's races over a bit further such as the G3 Schweppervescence (1400m), G1 Inglis Sires' (1400m) and the G1 Champagne Stakes (1600m) that should suit Camino Real.
Ideal G1 target/s: Champagne Stakes (1600m) at Randwick on April 17.
MO'UNGA
You don't need to be a great detective to find this bloke, but he should be winning Group races come the autumn. It all happened quickly this year for the Savabeel colt. He made his debut in a nondescript 2YO maiden over 1400m on the Gold Coast in June. He was sent around at $4.60 on the Heavy 10 deck, going on to score by a length.
He returned from a short break at Newcastle in August, defeating Lion's Roar (who went on to run second in the G1 Spring Champion) in a BM64 by 1.5L.
He then handled the rise to Listed level with aplomb, again scoring by 1.5L in the Dulcify. That performance earned him a trip to Melbourne for the Caulfield Guineas, where he was right in the market at $7. He could only manage a midfield finish but he was far from disgraced - especially given Caulfield can be a tricky track first time around - running home in the quickest final 200m outside of winner Ole Kirk.This is why I love Race Calling!
— Matt Jackson (@Mjackson_racing) August 22, 2020
Every so often you get to call a horse who gives you that little chill that he is something special. I got that today calling this win of Mo’Unga at Newcastle!
Sit back & enjoy his win, it’s stunning! pic.twitter.com/7BPYzyEqjy
He's had a stable change during his break, in a rare occurrence where Chris Waller has lost a good one, with the flying Annabel Neasham the beneficiary. The Guineas' should be right up his alley in the autumn, particularly the Rosehill Guineas over 2000m.
Ideal G1 target/s: Randwick Guineas (1600m) on March 6 and Rosehill Guineas (2000m) on March 20.
LUKE SHEEHAN
GLENFIDDICH
I'm doubling down on my ill-fated prediction he could've won a big one in the spring. He was thwarted by a throat issue, but still came back to contest the Coolmore.
He's obviously versatile as he showed in his 2YO season, good on his Sydney leg too which opens doors.
His early spring return to chase home Behemoth is good fresh form, so I'd be particularly interested in where he kicks off in the autumn, and he was very effective second-up off a four-week break too.
Ideal G1 target/s: C F Orr Stakes (1400m) on February 6, or the Futurity Stakes (1400m) on February 20 (or any of a variety of those mile Sydney features)Stutt Stakes (G2)
— WR1 (@WorldRacing1) September 25, 2020
1600 m, 200.000 AUD
🇦🇺Moone Valley
Glenfiddich (AUS)
(3C Fastnet Rock - Nothin But A Dream, by First Defence)
J : Luke Nolen
T : Peter G Moody
O : Edinburg Park, Monaro Bloodstock...
🥈Cherry Tortoni
🥉Holyfield
📽️ @Aushorse_TBA
pic.twitter.com/xIf0ustRbB
INGRATIATING
The Godolphin colt has had two sightings at the races and neither went well for punters - rolling the odds-on pop, before being rolled as one himself.
But what's quite clear is of the early 2YO crop, he's one of the good 'uns. He was caught in a 'full circle' form quirk - well, the below would happen more often than you think.
The 2YO form comes full-circle
General Beau d Finance Tycoon (2.25L, September 23, 900m)
Ingratiating d General Beau (1L, October 3, 1000m)
Finance Tycoon d Ingratiating (0.2L, November 3, 1000m)
The son of Frosted is flying the flag for the grey stallion thus far, and with race experience under his belt he could be competitive in the big ones in his 2YO autumn/3YO spring.
He's another out of a Lonhro mare (see Camino Real above), with mum Obsequious chasing home Buffering as a spring 3YO, and beating Red Tracer the following autumn.
Ideal G1 target/s: Any of those 2YO/3YO features he should make his way to.
DAVID HOCKING
VICTORIA QUAY
She might not end up being an elite galloper in open company but Victoria Quay has shown more than enough in her four starts to suggest she can be competitive at the top level against her own age and sex.
The Team McEvoy filly debuted in the spring and it was obvious from the outset that she was still a pretty raw and immature galloper.
That said, she progressed from finishing 4.2L off in maiden company on debut, to a winner of the Group Two Wakeful Stakes (2000m) on Derby day. She's not exactly regally bred but the daughter of Dundeel sees out a very strong 2000m and looks capable of getting further.
The camp hinted at an autumn prep geared towards the Group One Australasian Oaks (2000m) at Morphettville and that really does shape as a golden opportunity for her to attain G1 glory.And of course, Jamie Kah is on the board early at @FlemingtonVRC.
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 31, 2020
In a three-way tussle down the straight, Victoria Quay wins the G.H.Mumm Wakeful Stakes for @mcevoymitchell. pic.twitter.com/UIKkcJTSUg
The fact that she got within 0.8L of Ain'tnodeeldun (one of James Lamb's horses to follow) in the Listed Hill Smith Stakes and then got the better of subsequent Oaks winner Personal in the Wakeful is good enough for me, especially given the scope she has to mature and strengthen ahead of the autumn.
Ideal G1 target/s: Australasian Oaks (2000m)
VOWMASTER
To suggest this BM64 winner can graduate to a Group One winner in 2021 is speculative at best. This inclusion is more about a horse that emerged onto the scene with some seriously impressive wins and looks destined to compete in stakes company before long.
The 3YO son of Written Tycoon (by a stakes winner in Bring A Ring) looked good when winning on debut at Kyneton and then passed the BM64 test with flying colours when he rounded them up with ease at the Valley over 1000m. He didn't beat much there but the manner of the win was most impressive, circling the field from the back under hands and heels before being throttled down before the line.
Whether he gets to the elite level remains to be seen but he's got untapped potential and I'm excited to see where he gets to in 2021.
Ideal target/s: Needs to get his rating up before we start nominating races but look out for him next spring.Vowmaster, more like Wowmaster! 😱
— Racing.com (@Racing) November 20, 2020
That was some win from the @cwallerracing trained galloper. There's a lot to like about him.@TheValley @RacingInsider pic.twitter.com/BDNMoVonn8
NOTE: This article was compiled prior to Ayrton's gap job on Boxing Day - he could be anything based on his two efforts thus far (READ: Unbeaten 3YO lights up Caulfield)
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