Melbourne Cup Discussions
Our 2013 Melbourne Cup discussions are already heating up, with members offering their opinions on the horses to watch, sharing early tips and debating the latest news.
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Don't worry Carbon - I actually backed the horse that broke its leg! So - my feelings about the race are pretty ordinary... lol
I think the wash up is there is no tried and true method, I've been talking up Fio on here for a month or so and was fortunate enough to back GM last year, I feel you still need some staying pedigree coupled with obvious WFA ability/form and preferably an Ozzie trainer who has had time to get to know the horse. This should narrow it down somewhat, then mix in some gutt feel and presto, there you have it! Been good talking and reading all this with you boys, ill be back next year to do it all again. Boban an absolute spesh on sat and is the next big thing!
well worth the read :)
but as we can see now a lot of our local trainers are delving deeper into the European breeding stocks, Although i think there best bred are being snaveled by others and its going to be many years before our stocks are out of the slums.
The first 5 horses across the line were all bred in Europe, with only the winner being trained in Australia. Last year at least the first 6 horses across the line were European bred. 2 years ago the first 4 across the line were European bred with only 3rd place getter Lucas Cranach being trained by an Australian. But I will point out that going back 20 years ago, most of our big staying races were won by horses bred in New Zealand. That masked our problem then.
The Caufield Cup used to be the best form race for the Melbourne Cup. The first 4 across the line this year did not run in the Caufield Cup. A Melbourne Cup winner has not even run in the Caufield since 2008 when Viewed won the Cup by a nostril from another European. This year's Caufield Cup winner and runner up ran 6th and 5th respectively. Consider this idea. Take out all the European bred horses like it used to be 22 years ago and Fawkner would have won followed by Ethiopia and Super Cool. People would even then say that Super Cool stayed the trip. lol
22 years ago most of the Cup runners ran on Derby day in either the MacKinnon or the Hotham handicap, now called the Lexus. The last Melbourne Cup winner to run on Derby day was Shocking in 2009. Very few Cup runners run on Derby day now.
The Cox Plate has become a very good lead up race for the Cup now with Makybe Diva 2005, Efficient 2000, Green Moon 2012 and Fiorente 2013 all running in the Cox last start before winning Cups.
The Geelong cup has also become a good form race over the last 12 years with Media Puzzle, American and Dunaden all winning the Geelong before the Melbourne. She's Archie and Bauer both running second in the Melbourne after running in the Geelong.
Other International races that have become form races for the Melbourne Cup are the Prix Kergorlay in France ran over 3000m. Americain and Dunaden both ran in that race bfore winning the Cup 2 starts later. The Irish St ledger is another form race now.
The moral of the story is not to back any Australasian Bred horses in the cup any more. Back Class European bred male horses aged 5 or 6 Australian time, who have got a weight of between 53kg to 55.5kg. If they are trained by internationals a run in Australia is preferable.
BTW. One rule that a lot of punters go by is not to back a horse who has previously ran in the Cup and not won. This year the first 3 across the line all ran in last year's cup with Red Cadeaux running in his third. When trying to work out the winner of the cap and using history as a guide, anything before the year 2000 is now ancient history.
The best way to encourage Australia to put more focus on breeding stayers is for one put a lot more races on for stayers in distances up to 4000m, yes 4000m. Increase the prize money for the Sydney Cup to the Max. Increase the prize money for the Adelaide Cup and Brisbane Cup with the Brisbane going back to it's 3200m. Increase the ATC Derby to be more prize money than the Slipper and even decrease the prizmoney for the Slipper. They could even change the name to the "Sydney Derby". Increase the prize money for the SA and Queensland Derby's. Increase all the Oaks prize money. Make the BMW over the Classic 2400m the richest race in the Sydney Carnival. Even have a big money 2400m handicap in Sydney in the Autumn too. Then have a bonus scheme for Australian bred horses running in certain races. Even have certain staying races where only Australian bred horses are eligible and have one on Cup day. Yes Sydney should change it's land scape to more staying races. In my 19 year of following racing closely I have not seen anyone do anything to fix the fact that we don't breed stayers.
The only reason gai got Fiorente to win the Cup is because she listened to Lloyd Williams who told her to race solely in Melbourne. Took her twenty-odd years to work out why she is a flop in Melbourne.
I don't think the insane Ascot plan will happen cos connections aren't going to forfeit millions of dollars just so the name-dropping ,phoney-baloney trainer can shake hands with the Queen.
About the dumbest plan ever devised. Surely connections will overrule her and have another go at the Cox-Cup double.
may she be lovin tha great paddock in tha sky!!! r.i.p. vermema!
"Also a mate of mine won $45,000 trackside at Doomben".
That should cover a bit of the $100k he's probably lost this year ;)
Fiorente wow what a horse!!! Bombproof. I was sceptical that the cox run had floored him but glad I stuck with him. And The top 3 all defying previous MC history.
I wish we could get $7s for every favourite every race! Haha
Maybe tomorrow ill come to my senses and..."get back on the horse"...
Melbourne Cup Results!
Melbourne Cup Horses
|#1 Fiorente||Gai Waterhouse|
|#2 Mount Athos||Luca Cumani|
|#3 Dandino||Marco Botti|
|#4 Verema||Alain Dupre|
|#5 Hawkspur||Chris Waller|
|#6 Sea Moon||Robert Hickmont|
|#7 Voleuse De Coeurs||Michael Moroney|
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