VRC Derby

Guys, so how do you think Manawanui will go in this - another 500 metres? A risk? A couple of good Sydney horses breathing down his neck. Odds are slight at $2.25. No value, considering how well we know Induna will go at the distance.

Yeah it is about a time a favourite come through this spring. I have backed the other two and lost and will stick with either Manawanui in this, as long as I can get better odds. But I will wait until Friday is here before I consider betting and we are sure of the horses that will be running. I also think Induna's run was pretty good (and I take on board the form out of the race). Snowden will be keen to get this one.

Mahogany - Manawanui. Nice call, I think both have alot of similar traits. Both Relax beautifully and have great acceleration and massive ability.

Good point street_legal , I guess I wanted to compare Manawanui to Mahogany the way they race but there is a long list of beaten FAVs in the Derby, horses that were better then the rest at the same age and later on as well but class alone couldn't get them home in the Derby.

I guess we will find out how classy Mana is, we all know he probably isnt a stayer but he definitely can still win on class. But it only takes that one good stayer to find that out as we saw with Rebel Raider going straight past a very classy miler in Whobegotyou. They are pretty similar horses Whobegotyou and Manawanui to my eye, Mana maybe looks a bit more tougher and able to race forward more which could see him out. Plus its very liukely that there is no stayer in this field with the ability of Rebel Raider at th 2500m.

Like your points Lesnorton, but Manawanui had his chance in the Guineas and couldn't get past Helmet. Sorry, dont agree that he gets past helmet in another few bounds. He got to him, and Helmet fought back. Very interesting race this one...

I loved the way Manawanui attacked the line in the AAMI Vase, but a Derby at Flemington is a different kettle of fish. Lion Tamer last year was exceptional, did it at both ends and made a true test of it. It's much easier to sprint off a slow tempo at the valley over 2040 than it is to win a 2500m event at Flemington. It'll be interesting to see if a horse like Collar tries to do a Lion Tamer. Hasn't got the class of LT, but he might make a true test of it...

I don't see Mana as a moral and won't be taking him in my all up this Saturday. I definitely think he is the horse they have to beat though...

Wildozer when it comes to betting i always say 'back your own judgement'. For me that means laying Mana (just as i lay Helmet in the plate) and not backing any of the others to win. This is a very even Derby excuses can be found for all and positives too. Hell i wouldn't be surprised if the donk Zabillionrubbish won and he is a dead set cabbage.

A lot of people have answered why I dont want to back Manawanui at the odds being offered Molanski. Yes he rates like a great horse over 1600m. He can settle, no doubt. He has acceleration, no doubt. But can he win over 2500m? Theres a big question there as Plugga said. Who knows? Im thinking he won't. If they put up $10, yeah Id back him. $2.40? No thanks.

Anyone hear about bad xrays on the front legs of the mighty mare more joyous? Could explain why the bookies were so keen to get a pre-post Myer Classic market up? I don't recall ever seeing them do this from memory?

I have a feeling this may be MJ last race..After what Nash said and her performance last start i wouldn't be surprised if something was wrong. If not, I dare say she's retired after this win or lose.

What did Nash say?

He was very very upset and concerned. Said she's just not the same anymore and won on class, but felt nothing like she used to, most likely due to her age

thats sad to hear...shes been an amaizing plunge/multi anchor for me ever since i can remember..gai will do whats best for her.

She's only 5yo Rollingover, hardly a fossil? Yes, agree smokie that Singo and Gai would always put the horse first. They absolutely lover her, and why not. That's why I still think I might include her in my moral multi come Saturday. Wait and see...

I know she's not THAT old, I'm just basing my comments on what I've heard and seen. Plus, and feel free to completely shred this to bits, my view is that the way racing is going, with horses being developed and pushed in their 3-4 year old years, her turn of foot which is seemingly less productive (for lack of wanting to use a more emphatic word) may not be as competitive in the races she will be set for being 1400 to 1600, meaning they would need to extend her out which I dont think she is capable of. But again that's just my opinion, and Im not sure many people will agree with me

I should probably add lightly raced older horses to that point of younger ones

i just read an artical that says more joyous' work this morning was the best at flemington this morning...who knos wats the go?

I think MJ will win. her track work has been good and dispite not "feeling right" she still won the other day,

Gais normally bullish about her horses chances but this morning saw her on the news and she declared MJ to win the myer. I think that cause Mj older prob needs a few runs to get going could just blitz them this weekend. But yeah i remember the post race interview nash was very concerned and he know this horse well.

Just go to tomwaterhouse.com.au if hes got her shorter than the corporates she will win longer she will lose that simple.

One of my number one punting rules is not to listen to a word Gai says, this has worked out great cause I can switch channels whenever she is being interviewed and not have to listen to her annoying voice. Back on topic, how far Manawanuii?? I reckon might get as much as $2.80 for him on the day, Christmas comes early this year!