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Nudgey's Horse To Follow


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TheNudge

 wrote Jul 28 2010 at 11:26pm2010-07-28 23:26:50

2 from 2 so far, so I thought I'd start a thread, nominating a horse to follow for the day.

Horse To Follow Today is:
SEYMOUR RACE 5 NUMBER 3 MY FREE WILL
Was going to win for all money last start but he just peaked on his run at the 150, which suggested he was still short in fitness. Today he will be cherry ripe, has the gun draw, gun rider in Nick Hall and all he needs to do is bring his last start form today and he'll go very close to winning.

TheNudge

 wrote Aug 31 2010 at 11:46pm2010-08-31 23:46:54

Horse To Follow Today is:
WARWICK FARM RACE 1 NUMBER 7 SEVENTH REASON
He wont be paying back the $2.2 million that Singo forked out for him, but with time he'll be winning a listed race. Needed the run first up on the bog track. He should press forward today and sit on the speed. Also note that a senior rider is on top today, last start Blake Spriggs rode the stallion. He'll appreciate the firm ground and although he may need this run also, he'll give plenty of cheek.

ta

 wrote Sep 1 2010 at 1:22am2010-09-01 01:22:14

Good luck Nudge. I will be apposing it today.

Sinestro

 wrote Sep 1 2010 at 10:15pm2010-09-01 22:15:53

I'm assuming Nudge, that you don't think a horse can peak running 4th?

TheNudge

 wrote Sep 1 2010 at 11:40pm2010-09-01 23:40:29

No, I dont Sinestro.

Horse To Follow Today is:
STRATHALBYN RACE 4 NUMBER 14 ZARANDASTAR
She looks pretty good value I think. Her run at Swan Hill wasnt too bad in a much stronger maiden than this. With the claim for young gun Claudia Lions, she only carries 53.5kg and on a wet track that makes a big difference. The others except for one or two are out of form so she gets her chance to win today.

TheNudge

 wrote Sep 3 2010 at 11:11pm2010-09-03 23:11:17

Horse To Follow Today is:
RANDWICK RACE 4 NUMBER 5 ELIMBARI.
Eye-catching run behind Parables. Was given a lovely ride by Tye Angland but just got hampered all down the straight. Smaller field today will help and the rise in journey is a bonus. Bowman jumps on board and from gate two should get a lovely run throughout. Big watch on her today.

TheNudge

 wrote Sep 5 2010 at 2:04am2010-09-05 02:04:02

Horse To Follow Today is:
GEELONG RACE 1 NUMBER 1 AUZONNET
Didnt mind his run at Geelong the other day after covering ground. He is third up today so he should just about be full strength. The depth isnt strong here and with luck in running, he can play a decent part in the finish

TheNudge

 wrote Sep 6 2010 at 11:09pm2010-09-06 23:09:12

Horse To Follow Today is:
GEELONG RACE 4 NUMBER 6 RHIANNON'S JOY
In papers she is at $6, so they have found her. I think her two runs this time have been solid. Wasnt far away behind Ossie Embrace first up then worked home nicely last start behind Belle Of Dubai over 1300m. Steps up to 1900m which is a huge plus, she is weighted well here and remember she has raced in Group One company in Adelaide.

PREDATOR

 wrote Sep 7 2010 at 12:21am2010-09-07 00:21:30

i like her today too nudge. the top 2 are going to be tough to beat but she should run past them if she gets the right ride. G3 in SA :) rock of tara looks a danger at odds.

TheNudge

 wrote Sep 7 2010 at 11:08pm2010-09-07 23:08:09

How ugly was that?

Horse To Follow Today is:
HAPPY VALLEY RACE 3 NUMBER 1 NORMAN INVADER
He looks the best bet at the meeting tonight. His form last prep was very good over the sprint trips. Listening to an interview with Matthew Chadwick, he says the horse is a very strong railer so gate one is a massive plus. He likes to lead and he appears to get a comfy time in front tonight. He trialled well recently when winning, beating home Super Boy, who trialled really nicely. He has plenty of weight to carry but given an easy lead, he'll win.

TheNudge

 wrote Sep 10 2010 at 11:17pm2010-09-10 23:17:56

Horse To Follow Today is:
ROSEHILL RACE 3 NUMBER 7 COMEPSA
Did place at the T/D in May but has struggled since. He did a bit too much work last time out behind Verballed when beaten only 4.5L. He should press forward from an ideal gate and with a dry track today and the rail out 4m, he might get away with it here at odds. Should note also that Grant Buckley, a very strong rider, replaces apprentice Blake Spriggs.

Pluggerduck

 wrote Sep 11 2010 at 12:59am2010-09-11 00:59:58

Two chances imo
1. Griffon
2. Thankgodyou'rehere

Comepsa hasn't won since june 2009 and before that Dec 2007. 100/1 today

TheNudge

 wrote Sep 11 2010 at 1:07am2010-09-11 01:07:56

Any horse can turn average form into winning form. Jedi Starfighter did it 3 weeks ago, Why not Comepsa? I think he is worth an e/w ticket.

TheNudge

 wrote Sep 12 2010 at 12:16am2010-09-12 00:16:04

I have two horses to follow today.

SALE RACE 6 NUMBER 9 ELITE EBONY
She hates wet tracks, her record says that so forget her Caulfield and judge her on previous form which includes a fourth behind Enzed Girl. Drops big time in class today and is on the limit. The rise in distance is a concern but on ability alone, she is the one to beat with Dan Nikolic in the saddle.

SCONE RACE 2 NUMBER 2 LIFEBELT
Tragedy to see what happened to him at Wyong. Just couldnt get a crack until the final 100m then flew home and really should have bolted in. Drawn perfectly in gate one, he should sit just off the pace and the field he is up against arent good. He deserves to win and today should be his day.

TheNudge

 wrote Sep 15 2010 at 10:57pm2010-09-15 22:57:50

Horse To Follow Today is:
SEYMOUR RACE 8 NUMBER 13 AMHERST
I liked the way he closed off last start. The stewards report says he lost his near fore and near hind plates so that adds a bit more merit to his run. Three placings from four starts when racing second up, same stats on a heavy track, two placings from two at Seymour, drawn well, ace rider Michael Walker is riding and being on the limit, he should prove hard to beat.

TheNudge

 wrote Sep 17 2010 at 11:20pm2010-09-17 23:20:44

Horse To Follow Today is:
MORPHETTVILLE RACE 1 NUMBER 6 HULA DANE
Forget he went around behind Titch. The track was bottomless and he cant handle that. He was pretty good the start before at Coleraine where he won by six lengths. With the exception of the topweight, this is an ordinary field and with luck running, I think this bloke may get up at odds.

TheNudge

 wrote Sep 21 2010 at 10:57pm2010-09-21 22:57:32

Horse To Follow Today is:
SANDOWN RACE 4 NUMBER 8 MISS ALIA
Surely she cant lose today. Plenty to like about her run last start behind Crabs, again just needing the run. She strikes a firmer surface today, steps up to 3000m (placed over the distance at Moonee Valley) and meets a very weak race. She is the best horse in the race and should prove it on the line.

TheNudge

 wrote Sep 24 2010 at 1:42am2010-09-24 01:42:05

Horse To Follow Today is:
CANTERBURY RACE 3 NUMBER 5 PHENOMONAL LASS
Liked the way she raced last time in and proved she will do the same this prep with a solid first up effort behind Grand Rhumba in the dash for cash at Newy on Cameron Handicap Day. She is fitter, and she'll appreciate racing at Canterbury, where she has had success. There appears to be plenty of early speed so that is a problem but if Blake gets her in to get cover, she'll be right in the finish.

Pluggerduck

 wrote Sep 24 2010 at 2:06am2010-09-24 02:06:45

Nudge you exactly right with the speed ! I am expecting a hell for leather breakneck speed which may impact on the horse with the best figures in Magic weekend. Had ok figures last start behind Thankgodyou'rehere who was outstanding off only a moderate speed, Griffon had every chance that day and i it's looking as though Griffon may struggle to get a strong 6 furlongs.
Tired horses may fall back onto magic weekend but if he get's clear running then he should be winning.
Budabar didn't fire first up on a heavy track last time in, class runner and could run over the top of Magic weekend. Good luck nudge !

Phenomonal lass needs two things to win a dry track which it's gets and to lead and control the race which is impossible imo.

TheNudge

 wrote Sep 24 2010 at 11:40pm2010-09-24 23:40:32

Poor ride by Josh Adams last night on Magic Weekend.

Horse To Follow Today is:
RANDWICK RACE 1 NUMBER 4 STREETFIGHTER
Five horse field, anything can happen. This bloke was very good in the Newy Cup, he was going to win on the home turn but fitness beat him. He will be 100% ready to go and speaking to Terry Mathrick (trainer) on Thursday, he sounded confident that the horse can cause a major upset here.


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