LAY OF THE DAY

Caulfield R5 NO. 6 PELLIZOTTI

$5.50 in prepost markets but profiles as the standout poor betting value in the race. The market is attracted by his 3rd to Innocent Gamble on Australia day where he came from well back and made up good ground. The major factor about that race though was that it was run in very moderate overall time with a very moderate last 600m. By comparison the Fillies division won by Crystal Lily (following race) was 4L faster overall and close enough to 4L faster over the last 600m(As i stated earlier in the week).Those figures don't sit well compared too some of the other good chances here. Even worse he will more than likely get back in the ruck which disadvantages him even more.

Fair go Plugga.........you waz quite right........hope you layed him for a heap.........well done.....:-)

Sandown R4 NO. 8 ESPRIT DE BULLET

This horse profiles as clear lay today, speed figures of recent don't represent the price and the market is very attracted to it's last run when flashed home as always. The last 600m it ran in that race was only moderate though and it would have improve considerably to win this race. The overall time and sectionals will be much stronger in this race and yes it will be closer to the speed today but backing these horses with such profile's will leave your pockets much lighter longterm.

Keep up the good work Plugga..........followed you into laying Esprit for the place.......just a little investment, but very satisfying.......:-)

Were's your Lay of the Day Plugga?.........

Eagle Farm R1 NO. 6 STEEL LIPS

Profiles terribly today, was beaten by RARE DIAMOND (3ls) last start who he meets again today, his lifetime figures are down the ladder here and more importantly will get back against horses who have quicker times sectionals and overall time Way under the odds today at the current quote of around 3/1

Thanks Plugga.......:-)

I'm going to have a go today:

MValley R2 No1 TOLLESPRIT

Was the class runner last time and duly saluted. Think it's looking for further now, and it's get-back style will go against it today. Believe True Persuasion is a promising up and comer, and it's last race was full of merit. Will have the chance to lead and control the race today........will make it v.hard for Tollesprit to get balanced and make up ground over the concluding stages.

I will be laying Tollesprit as well and will also throw in No.1 ZARITA in Race 8 at Moonee Valley.

Thank goodness I couldn't get on Tollesprit at $2.00.........Phew!!!!!
Plugga does it again........onya!!!....:-)

Doomben R6 NO. 6 ARCTIC ECHO

Standout lay in this race as it's figures are below what it's prepost price is representing. Gets back and the market is latching onto the fourth it ran last start, but the figures from that race are only average and the race was run in slow time. It's overall career figures are also below the top contenders here.

Warwick Farm R6 No. 10 SUNSET COAST

Profiles poorly today and currently $6 prepost markets, will be back midfield and would have to improve considerably more to win this race as there are four others with better speed figures. JUSTIFIER profiles well as she is going really well this campaign with speed figures on top here and should be able to skip across and control the race or settle handy. $4.50 avail early today / $4 still looks overs. Main dangers are 4,11 & 8.

APPARITIONS ?

Phew!!!........that was bl%#dy close!!..................

Plugga maintains his unbeaten record..........well done buddy........bet you can't wait for this site to start its lay betting comps?

Rosehill R4 No. 6 Danleigh

Profiles as the standout lay in this race, last start his figures were well below par, yes they went slow but his last 600m was very poor. Will get back to last or thereabouts and this race is stronger than at his previous start, at 5/1 in prepost markets he is well unders.

If the race hadn't been set up by his stablemate would have been a good lay...............:-(

Toptipster i made a profit on the race laying it even though it won. It drifted heaps from when i layed it at $6.20 and when it got too around $9.50 i traded off and greened up so no matter who won i made a profit.
$500 lay @ $6.20 = $2,600 i then backed him at $9.6 for $323 to take a Profit of around $170 no matter what horse won. You can also work it so you either lose nothing if it wins(danleigh) or profit if he loses, you achieve this by Laying him for $500 @ $6.20 and then backing him for $302 @ $9.60 which would give you a profit of around $187 if it loses and $0 if it wins. Not bad hey !! The program does all this for you at the touch of a button.

Whiz i also forgot to mention the most important feature ! and that is the greening up button.

i am hugely interested in this plugger it sounds like a new challenge. Any suggestions on where i should start or what info i can get my hands on to get me started.

Also interested in the laying option............been goin in a bit blind of late and wouldnt mind some sound advice on where to start

Might have a go at this today...

Warwick Farm R2 No 1 ACTRICE

Only had one start for a 5th in the Gimcrack when well fancied $2.25 favourite. Blake Shinn never seems to be able to get the best out of Gai's mounts so I think the evens has to be a huge risk.

I must say im not completely sold on that lay of the day tip whatashotbyseve..
5th in a Gimcrack on a bog track that day is pretty good form for something like this, was well fancied on debut shows that it clearly showed ability most likely on dry tracks.. I wish you luck but i wont be laying it, is a jump and run thing and gate 1 is ideal for a horse like this, blake shinn on a front runner can be hard to run down..

Sandown Race 2 No. 6 Off The Planet

Her overall figures are well below her given price in the prepost markets, her last start eye catching 2nd was run in very moderate time but the market seems to have taken notice on that run. She would have to produce her best figures to win this so at around $4 she's very poor value.

Might stay out this time Plugga......think the price is about right and I wouldn't be surprised if she won...........good luck

TT don't be put off by by the Danleigh run in the apollo stakes because as you know he came from well back in the field that day to run down stablemate Rangirangdoo but unfortunately they went mad and was set up for a swooper the last 600m was the slowest of the day. That's the exact conditions Danleigh needs to win at this level and he got them here. The time rating was sound given the fast pace but certainly nothing special. Danleigh will be a risk next start if the race is run at a more average tempo.

Well that was painless. Helped that I had the winner too!

Nicely tipped mate.. Wish i could have had the same confidence i ended up laying something a little wider.. Still came off though..

Good lay next time then Plugga??..........

Caulfield R6 No 4 VELOCITEA

Was given the absolute gun ride by Oliver and only fell in in mares grade last start. Up to open class and I think $2.50 is under the odds.

Agree Velocitea is unders

Caulfield R4 No.3 TOORAK TOFF

Profiles extremely poor today. His first up win looked good to the naked eye but the overall time was slow with the last 600m also slow. From a wide draw he doesn't have the early speed to cross so oliver will have to either try and snag in somewhere or go back more likely the latter. His figures would have to improve dramatically to beat these. Easily the best lay of the day.

Here's the rest of my lays today

SYDNEY
Race 3 No. 2 Carnegie's cruizin
Race 4 No. 1 Chakvetadze
Race 6 No's 2. Kidnapped & No.3. More Than great

Here's the rest
Sydney
Race 7 No. 3 The Mikado

Melb
Race 5 No. 6 My bently
Race 8 No. 1 Extra Zero
Race 9 No. 2 Mentality

Laying all for a level stakes win

Got Velocitea completely wrong. Gee she towelled them.

You would have made a nice profit today Plugga...........only one that won was EZ..........and that was a peculiar race.........well done buddy.........:-)

Good lay on Chakvetadze!!!

My Bentley totally overated... Good lay tipping plugger.

Sandown R5 No.11 ZIZZ

Profiles as the best lay today at the current prepost price of around $5
Was luckless last start and i think that's what the market has latched onto, but had he won that race the figures are still below what will be required to win this race, he get's back and there are some other much better chances who run on the pace, his price is well under his true winning chance

Wyong R3 No.1 ALTELIER

Wyong R5 Number 2 Tops A Win

I Think Nicconi is a good lay this weekend.

Laying both PREDOMINATOR & PIMPERNEL in this upcoming race

Nice recovery plugger!

Laying OUTLANDISH LAD in upcoming race because at $3.40 betfair is unders/ should be more around the $5.50-6.00 price...kav obviously

They bet $10 for OL yesterday morning on the tab prepost markets.

Cant help but notice on the very handing odds tables that PP has that there is a difference with horses here and there between best fixed odds available and betfair lay odds. Has anyone tried to profit from this? or is it not worth doing by the time you switch funds from account to account do you lose too much in fees to make it worth while? for example ZIPPING paying 9.0 on centrebet can be layed on betfair at 8.60
other examples for tomorrow -

TRUSTING 19.0 sportsbet 18.50 betfair
PURPLE 34.00 sportsbet 32.00 betfair

any thoughts?

That's arbitraging Moonshine and i do it sometimes, but the liquidity in our markets don't make it viable to do all the time and if you get caught bookies will ban you. Just say you back trusting at 19's for $1000 and lay off at $18.50 for ???? ahhhh see there has be the same amount available to guarantee the profit. I make much more trading with BETTRADER EVOLUTION...

yeah i figured it was too good to be true. i think ill try out my new strategy for betfair of following horses into big races and laying off when they shorten. An example being Extra Zero on 81.00 on Betfair for the Donny and after he comes storming home tomorrow even without winning should shorten considerably and for that should try it with Vision and Power currently 41.00. What are your thoughts?

I have done the same thing with HEART OF DREAMS tomorrow. Backed it pre race then laid it off after the barriers were drawn

Warwick Farm R4 No. 7 ELMIBARI

Profiles as the a very good lay in this race. Impressive win last start ? it looked like that on paper but the figures were poor and the other two chances have much better figures, it will get back and at it's current quote of around $4.80 is well under it's true price

LAYS

SYDNEY
R6 No. 2 DANLEIGH....best of the day(year)

MELBOURNE
R5 No. 2 ROSTOVA
R6 No. 3 NICCONI
R8 No. 9 OUR AQALEEM + No. 16 EXTRA ZERO

MELB R1 N0. 1 NOT A PRETENDER

Agreed Plugger, Danleigh won't be winning today. I share your confidence ;)

ELIMBARI from when i layed it at 12.30 today at $5.60 drifted to $9.....i guarantee you can make money doing this. Next time lay it when i put up the next lay of the day and then back it when i post to tell you too....i guarantee i can make a guarnteed profit for anyone who's up for it(before the race is even run but you have to have a betfair account).....if you need any advice just ask me ! eg how much to back it for depending on if you want a free bet or green up....:-)

I tried doing this on mooney valley night meetings, good idea but you need many thousand dollars in your account for it to be worth while although making a profit is always worthwhile,eg laying at $5.60 x $100 then back it $63 x $9 if it wins your square if it loses you make $37 bucks is this the correct method of laying horses?

Ping that is trading and if you had of layed it at $5.60 for $100 and backed it at $9 for $62.50 in a 7 horse field you could of made a guaranteed profit (anyhorse can win) of around $38....do that on five times for the day and youv'e made a profit of around $200...no risk..

Tune in saturday morning when i recommened a horse to lay on betfair, i will then post abit later to advise when to back it and how much for too make a guaranteed profit no matter who wins the race.....hopefully i pick the right one to drift big enough to show a good example of what can be achieved.

Plugga, you are over-simplifying the situation to make it sound easier than it is.........and there is most definitely a risk......and you know it....

In the example above.......if you lay the horse at $5.60 and it comes in rather than drifting out, then you're stuck with a position you cannot trade out of.........This is as likely to occur as the scenario you describe (hope for, more like...)where the price goes out and allows you to back and thus make a profit......there is no such thing as a "no risk" position in trading........so please don't encourage people to dabble in trading by saying something that just isn't correct...........

TOPTIPSTER just wait for staurday and if the trade doesn't go my way i will post to get everyone out of it with a little loss....yes there's risk but much less than gambling and you never hope for a trade to go your way.....it's simple !!! if it doesn't then you scratch your trade. It's learning how to read the markets that's the hardest part and i am now starting to consistently make profits on the uk markets....I wouldn't suggest anyone to trade on aussie provincial horse markets unless you know what your doing because the liquidity is so small and you can do some real damage financially.....stay tuned for my lay at about 11am -11.20am and do EXACTLY what i say....

Canterbury R4 No.7 ELMSFORD

Not sure why it's $7 in the prepost markets as it's overall times and record are very average. There are four much better chances in the race in NEESON, LOOKING FUR LANG, LIVIN ON THE EDGE AND TESTIMONIAL. Maybe the market is biased by his record at canterbury and his big weight drop from his last couple of runs but either way he's massively under the odds at that price. Could be a great opportunity to trade on.....i reccomened you lay it on betfair for $8 -$9+/ hopefully trade on it at around the $14 - $17 mark...and then back the top four chances with your profit...

I'm tempted to Lay Griffon.

Yeah he's very talented but the recent scratching does leave a question mark about his prep and will definitely start unders, no lay for me though..

Yeah don't think the Fav in the first is a certainty either, but i don't like Laying good horses and both are.

I'll lay Griffon and Neeson at Canterbury, both look huge unders in their respective races today.

ONCE WERE WILD is a good bet today at short odds today i backed it at $1.70

1.48betfair gees short, I'll Lay it at that for a small amount

1.70 was good overs then Plugger

Canterbury R4 No.7 ELMSFORD

Not sure why it's $7 in the prepost markets as it's overall times and record are very average. There are four much better chances in the race in NEESON, LOOKING FUR LANG, LIVIN ON THE EDGE AND TESTIMONIAL. Maybe the market is biased by his record at canterbury and his big weight drop from his last couple of runs but either way he's massively under the odds at that price. Could be a great opportunity to trade on.....i reccomened you lay it on betfair for $8 -$9+/ hopefully trade on it at around the $14 - $17 mark...and then back the top four chances with your profit...$9.50 - $10 atm /i think it will drift to at least $14 - $15

No opportunity today as the liquidity just too low on this particular horse so scratch your trade if you layed it......i am leaving it as i don't think it has any chance

Have to remember not to buy your Lay tips if PP starts offering them, Nudgey.........Lol!!

I have layed RESPONSE. Last weeks race was very messy & I think the result flatters her. Happy to take her on with MARVEEN, CHOUXMAANI & ZAUBERIN.
Dont like laying horses at double figure odds but was happy to do so with LORD TAVISTOCK.

Flemington R2 No. 8 VIKING HERO

Clearly the best lay anywhere in Australia today. His lifetime figures are well below some of his oppositions and he's around $4 in the prepost markets he would need to improve drastically to win this race. I recommend you lay him on betfair at around the $5.60 mark and hopefully trade off if drifts remarkably which it may....I will be laying him without trading though because of his poor figures especially against some of the other top chances in PRECEDENCE/CARBON TRADER/PACINO AND FORDEE...

Rest of lays

SYDNEY
RACE 3 JESSICABEEL
RACE 6 HANKS

Laying CARNEGIES CRUIZIN Sydney R1 No.1 much too short and DANDEE TOPWIN looks to get an easy lead.

Keen on laying Legsman in R4 in Sydney

Keep it up Nudge..............I'm making a fortune backing your lay tips...........Lol!!

Hahaha.... When he tipped it as a lay I was tempted to look it up and back it. Gold. Nudgey just can help but tip winners everywhere!

Money wouldn't be happy with his entry into the world of lay tipping... 2 winners from 2 with LT @ $16! lol

Yes, I forgot about MT leading us into Lord Tavistock...........this thread is a rich vein of winners......keep it up guys.........Lol!!

Some of my Saturday LAYs are on wall. I'm keen on Laying Star Witness, may be way wrong but we shall see, plenty of unkowns in the race to take short odds

Hot danish is up for grabs tonight nice and short lay it tonight as i think it will blow like bass straight tomorrow just layed it at $2.78

good prices to lay at, I haven't had the man bits to try betfair yet..

star witness, theseo, al dhafra, hadaaf, second king, la bella roo......

ASCOT R6 NO. 1 MARASCO

With you there Plugger. Not fit, coming back from injury and limited ticker.

ROSEHILL R8. NO 5 DESCARADO

phew that was close. layed second king backed spurlash and the winner. making the right moves so far today.

LAY of DAY STAR WITNESS, no where!! huge result

flop. jumped on the winner after they spoke to payne just before the race, he was very confidant wasn't he, had 3rd each way aswell. easy tri in hindsight.

that horse theseo fights like bulldog, thought i had him at the furlong! layed him but still come out of the race ahead after a rather large wager on speed gifted each way.

Laid Rangi, so 3 from 3 so far today, Been a very good day so far

Hopefully a few of you have followed my lays so far. 5 from 5, 3 short favs and Rangi@5 and Saytoria@7

WTF did Mark pegus think he was doing on THE LONG ROAD if i was at the track i would of given him the biggest serve of all time.....IM A HUSSY wins if that didn't happen :-(

Oh well someone had had to do something. I laid I'm a Hussey its last 2 wins, so I needed it to go down to get that back.
Bay Window makes it 6 from 6 so far

You laid it today TA ? if so why ? had outstanding figures last start....

Yes check my Wall Plugger for my LAYS, THought it would start unders, better field against it with some good performers in it, up 200m. up a little in weight(i think).

You will go broke laying horses profiling like that.....well done today though :-)

Cheers Pluggerduck

Hope you noted my wall Plugger and laid Spitfire Ace instead of Marasco!
makes it 7 from 7 for me, with 1 to go which I will only Lay for a little to keep a big lead.

Le Plunge Makes it 8 from 8. massive day Laying!!

How about next week TA you give a reason as to why your laying them..for instance today i layed MARASCO because early on in prepost markets he was $2.30 which was clearly under his true winning chance also he was beaten in a similar race last prep first up / his opposition in TARZI, TUDOR LAD and SPITFIRE ACE all had strong figures from there last run in a strong rating race, MARASCO'S figures from his five starts last prep were all a little bit below what i thought would be required to win today, they also had race fitness on MARASCO so he profiled as a clear strong lay today and longterm i am well ahead laying similar horses that profile like MARASCO.

nice tipping, you guys put the Lay tipsters out of buisness

WARWICK FARM R7 NO. 11 BOHEMIAN SPIRIT

The market has obviously reacted to his 2nd last start in similar class. That race though was run in a moderate time and he had every chance sitting handy, today's race has lot's more depth to it so i can't see why it's around the $4.60 mark. Clearly a very good lay.

THEGOODOIL: LAY OF THE DAY.

ROSEHILL: RACE 9 NO: 1 - BEADED Goes up 1 1/2kg , loses H.Bowman from the saddle.Awkward barrier draw in 8 , Stepping up in class.

I've identified 2 good value Lays today............

ROSEHILL R9 NO 4 MELITO..........Big ask to expect a horse to win first up against open age mares in form.........has previously only raced against her own age.........also being re-badged as a sprinter. Good value at $3.20

MORPHETTVILLE R7 N0 4 SOUND OF NATURE...........Recent runs have been below par and can't see why he should be fav here when others better credentialled for this race.
Currently $2.42

Good punting.........

CAULFIELD RACE 5 NO.7 NICASTRO

Clearly the best lay anywhere in Australia today, ran home in good sectionals last start off a slow pace but the time was very moderate and he has only once produced figures needed to win this from nine go's. Will be back midfield on the fence and has NIKITA BERIMAN on who's S/R is terrible at 13% from her last 100 rides with loss of 35%...currently around $4.70 in the prepost markets. Way under it's true winning price.

Here my lays today
CAULFIELD RACE 4 NO.7 ZAUBERIN
RACE 5 NO.7 NICASTRO

DOOMBEN RACE 4 NO.2 MASAI PRIDE
RACE 5 NO.8 WHAT HAPPENEDHENRY


GOOD LUCK TODAY !

Not too bad today..........

Rosehill R9 No 4 Melito.........Layed it at $3.00 so good return
Morphettville R7 No 4 Sound Of Nature........Couldn't Lay it at my price of $2.00 so no loss

Will be having another go next week....

Ps: Another great day Plugga.........super Lay tipping mate.....:-)

Lay tips for Warwick Farm = R6 7 & 10,.. R7 11,.. R8 13

BIG LAYS today= Balaklava R6 10,... R7 3,.... R8 17,.... R9 18

My Lays are both at Ballarat:

R6 No3 St Kiara....... can reel off good closing sectionals, but has no tactical speed and wont be suited here........gd value at $2.80 currently...

R7 No2 Tribulus....finds it hard to win and currently $4.20......

Randwick Inner R4 N0.3 EUPHEMISM

Clearly a excellent horse to lay today. His win first up looked better than it was because they ran quick early and he had a great opportunity to run home alot quicker but couldn't. Is in a better class race today up in weight by 4.5kgs and will have to run faster time than he ever has before and you'll see why he's very poor value and a great lay. Currently $3.20 TAB fixed which is way unders, i expect him to start around the $5 mark or more

Agree Plugger, I expect it to drift.

Lay Specials for today = Doomben R6 10,... R7 11,... R8 14

Well Plugger it driftedout as I thought.Plenty laying it I would suggest

Mixed day again.........St Kiara won easily.......poor lay....:-( But Trustus unplaced.........so ended up ok as had winner at 8.80 Betfair.......up on day...:-)

Donkey's to Lay for tonight = Moonee Valley R5 n8,... R6 n13,... R7 n7,.... R8 n12

My Lays today are......

Caulfield:.... R1 No1....Eclair Mystic
R3 No3 ...Second King
R5 No6....Ocean Challenger
R7 No8....Kidnapped

Good luck everyone..........

Eagle Farm - R6 3 Armstrong Jones

Moonee Valley R4 1 True Persuasion
Canterbury R1 3 Beijing Boy

1 from 1, maybe 2 from 2

Armstron Jones Unplaced. Betfair SP $6.

Randwick Race 8 - 5 Precedence .at the $2.20-2.50 mark way to short for mine.
Randwick Race 2 - 6 FlowerChild
Randwick Race 7 - 2 Rock Classic

Good Layin!

I agree with ta, i will be laying Precedence. That is way too short and is up against a couple of good ones this time. I wouldnt back him at $3 so i will be laying him big tomorrow. Also agree with Rock Classic but will probably just bet against him in that race because have a good derby bet

We shall see Plugger. I am sure plenty will think he is an excellent bet, I know he has been tipped by many people and the shorter it gets the more I could win. Lets see if my unbeaten run of posting Lays on my wall and here comes to an end!
p.s I am hoping it doesnt run a place. could be huge result

Gotta agree with plugger here. Precedence is a nice horse and he could give this lot an almighty spanking in the straight! Good luck to those laying him tomorrow but very bullsy effort. Go to the Bahamas or go 6 feet under, time will only tell.

Race 2 / 6. Flowerchild - i believe its wins have been flattering this prep. unknown quantity on dead or worse. i am happy to risk.

Race 4 / 1. Mic Mac - very keen to take on after some experimenting last prep, gets Hugh - but keen to take a risk against a gun field.

PRECEDENCE - Unplaced... Massive!
100% again today. Hope some of you got a bit out of those 3!
Cheers Plugger.

Yea thanks. Reasons are for me to worry about. Those who follow just want results.

Not cocky Plugger, just dont give away my reasons.

Hahahaha. Ease up Plugger, TA was right and you were wrong he doesnt have to tell you why he picked it. If he has some good systems he makes money off of then why would he share them with you and possibly cost himself money. Just to keep you happy Plugger ill tell you why i layed him. He had been beating B and C graders all prep and was taking a big step up in class. He was up against class performers in No Wine No Song, Harris Tweed and Capecover and was not entitled to even start favourite never mind even money. That was just ridiculous but i was happy there were punters out there that got lured in by him because it just made my collect even bigger :)

Also TA decided to follow you with taking him on to place also which i wasnt thinking about until i read your post so thanks alot mate :)

Don't think he did underperform Plugga........just outstayed by more seasoned horses today........should have seen it coming like ta did.........top tipping by him I say.........and times aren't everything.......

Yea your right toptipster you will go broke reading into what the clock says too much.

Plugger Im going to gather your attitude tonight is because you lost on the punt today mate so i wont worry too much about that but you seem to have a sort of Believe what i believe or i will argue with you until you do agree with me attitude. not sure if its true because i havent talked to you before but thats just my first thought. Also this is a public forum so that means i can post when i want and dont just have to wait until someone talks to me. Now that all that niggly waste of time sh*t is out of the way ill just get back to the original topic.

There was no way you could rate his figures clearly on top! He beat Inkster by 1.5L while No Wine No Song and Harris Tweed finished 1.2L and 2.3L behind Littorio in a G1 WFA race.last time out. If that equates to his being clearly on top then i dont want to get hold of your ratings system. IMO he was just not good enough and like toptipster said the more seasoned performers just gave him a galloping lesson today.

Thats just my opinion and im happy for everyone else to disagree because it will just mean i can make more money off of him next time. But on todays results you cant argue that i am wrong

We all have different methods to Lay, Plugger has posted many losers on here.
Pluggers methods are different to mine clearly, but that makes it interesting.
If only I was as good at picking winners as loosers, had a shocking day backing things, so my Laying covered those bets.
There is nothing I like laying better than short favs, there figures look good, form looks good on quick inspection and they get in short! So the shorter they are the more I win. If you look at my Lays on here and on my wall I only post things in the market.
One things you must do when laying is be prepared to loose!
I do not expect to win everytime. I have done very well when I am disciplined and stick to my Lays, and thats a challange.

That's the BIGGEST CHALLENGE of all ta - being disciplined.

your stats speak for themselves ta you just keep it up your a freak, just do what you do and keep the lay strike rate up.

LOL Pluggerduck you are priceless!!!

I guess we could have a discussion about what UNDER PERFORM means.........

Precedence performed at his best given the conditions of the race on Sat............that his figures fell below his previous best is a given..............but, the reasons he rated below his previous best have to be analysed carefully in order to make sense of them.............

He was up 2 levels in CLASS........from a listed into a G2.
He was up against more seasoned and better class opponents who could keep the pressure on him throughout the race.
He was rising in distance.........from 2400 - 2600m
He is still a 4yo
He raced inside of horses which he clearly doesn't like

In the circumstances he didn't under perform...........he's an honest, but still immature horse who is not yet up to the class he encountered on Sat..............he did his best but, on the day, he was not good enough............

You may be right Plugga........but to discount the Class of the opposition is wrong imo.........a discussion for another day perhaps........

My Lay of the Day (for the Place) is: Randwick Race 7 No4 ORTENSIA..............not up to G1 class and has never produced her best ratings 1st up.........gross unders for mine.....

Ps: Pressure is not JUST about the pace of the race Plugga.................

If Precedence's finishing speed was "outstanding", what label do we put on the finishing speed of the 4 who finished in front of him? Particularly Jessicabeel. They all had much better sectionals.

My 2nd Lay is Randwick R6 No16 Palacio De Cristal............hopelessly out of her depth here and will not run a place.............

With respect TT. Can you put a horse paying $11+ (Palacio De Cristal) in a thread called "lay of the day" mate? It should be horses paying $3 or less. There will be 200 horses paying $11+ that get beat tomorrow.

Having said that I might lay Typhoon Tracy tomorrow. She is awfully drawn and there will be some "pressure" in the race. I think you can get her off at $3.40 - $3.50 right now.
She is weighted to win and I hate laying good horses, but there is something about the jockey/barrier combo, and the price, that makes me think we can take her on. And I think I've got a couple at double figure odds that can get her.

I should put a few more lays on here later/morning.

Best of luck everyone!

Dr Whiz....that should read Lay for the PLACE (currently $4.00)..............same as Ortensia (currently $1.75)........see my post above.....

Ps:.........who decided what price a Lay bet should be??? Plenty of odds-on tips are given as the bet of the day on this website.........Personally think about $5.00 should be the cut-off point for a Lay bet....

It's always in the eye of the beholder, isn't it? I agree with the good Dr (whilst he was under the impression that it was a lay win bet). $10 is my cut off for a lay bet. It may be 100/1 for others. It all depends on what you're prepared to risk. Don't see the correlation with odds on win bets, myself.

Sorry, fair enough. I didn't realise what you mentioned about it being a place lay. No offence meant.

You're right, no one has decided what price a "lay of the day" should be. But when people put up "best bets" at $1.10 they are often (rightly or wrongly) met with some derision.

Whatever a punter's personal limit is, is ok with me. I try to get them off at $3 or less, $4 at the most. If $5 is your level that is cool, I admire that in previous weeks you have been happy to take on some faves. That is what gets me interested about laying runners, when people want to take on the shorties.

good luck tomorrow

Plugga, re Precedence's sectionals at Flemington, they were exceptional - to the point that they are almost impossible to emulate consecutively. You of all people should know that. He had never done that before, and is unlikely to do it again until next prep. The speed was on massively that day, which assisted his final sectional no end. Excellent horse, though.

whiz.......no offence taken....:-)

When I say $5.00 would be my cut off point for a Lay bet tip.....I mean for posting in this thread.............in reality I'll only place a Lay bet myself if I can get $3.00 or less..........that's why I've started to look at Place Laying...........

Good luck to you buddy............

Someone get toptipster a bib

Todays Lays
Not as confident as last week, Not many short favs that I cant have today.
I will lay some for the Place aswell.

Caulfield R2 -3 The Fugitive
Ascot R3 - 11 Mr Nicoffski
Ascot Race 7 - 6 Miss Condition
Randwick R3 - 3 Neeson
Randwick R6 - 2 Danleigh
Ranwdwick R7 - 11 Definitely Ready

Lets see if the 100% record can remain.

Plugga..........if you're going to describe a horse as "under-performing" then you have to consider the possibility that they can over-perform..........

As Sinestro points out, horses will often be unable to reproduce a pb rating (whether time or class/wgt) at their next run(s)...........it could be that Precedence reverted to his average performance after the pb...............maybe he over-performed at Flemington.........

Thanks ta, ill have a go at your lays. Take note toptipster/laughablelayer how to make sensible lays.

Randwick R4 No.3 ABOVE AVERAGE

Has been heavily supported in the prepost markets as he was last start and is now into around the $5 mark, but those figures from his last race just don't justify his price, he will more likely get back again today and he would have to improve significantly to be winning this today, i figure the owners and stable hands are just buttering up again. He is a clear lay in this race and especially at that price.

REST OF MY LAYS

_______________________________

SYDNEY
__________

Race 7 No.3 ORTENSIA
Race 8 No.7 SNOW ALERT

CAULFIELD

__________

Race 5 No.5 CLOCKED

DOOMBEN

__________

Race 5 No.5 DEGENDA
Race 8 No.3 DECIBELLA

I'd be worried laying any of the Ball & Chain imports if they've been backed,

I'm with you Steels. There's fair mail for this thing.

terrible start for me. Was alot higher in the market than early odds. Was due i must say

But you've nailed Neeson.

Yea had a good crack at that one to get most back.

Now we are back in business Mr Nicoffski and Danleigh both UNPLACED

Thanks Ta I stayed with you re Definitely Ready - and luckily traded out of Ortensia (the winner @$4) before the jump. Nice info m8.

Good decision cim85.
You cant forget Definitely Ready getting run down on cup day at 1.50. Last start Caulfield winner off a Handicap, up to Group1 company! I thought they were kidding themselves.
I dont care what times it ran, its going in a new direction with no huge weight relief up to GROUP 1 race. vs Group winners

QUIZ TIME!!! Who made this recent quote?
"My Lay of the Day (for the Place) is: Randwick Race 7 No4 ORTENSIA..............not up to G1 class and has never produced her best ratings 1st up"
Was it:

A: TopTipster
B: Harold Holt
C: David Hasslehoff

God he's only won 2 out of 4 and placed 3 out of 4 first up.

Easy money laying Typhoon Tracy... Over rated I think. She is only world class against the mares and No, she isnt Sunline

Oh the laughter and scorn we endured when we suggested otherwise, Nudge. She's a classy mare, no doubt. Some were very quick to shout us down. Will they be as quick to pay their debts?

It appears I should have taken that side bet with you and not Leeroy, Plugger. He has suddenly disappeared from the site!

For those who follow the Lays, I find it best to Lay to Loose a certain amount. So the shorter the Lay the better the return. If anyone has been following my Lays, you should be ahead, as there have been odds on and couple in the $2-$2.50 range.
Unfortunately I cannot sell my Lays yet, but in the meantime, I will keep posting a few on here.
Cheers

Great Lay tipping ta..........very well done mate..........:-)

Go ortensia, haha

TopTipster - Make sure you let us know your lays this week so I know who to back for the win. Cheers!

DOOMBEN ABANDONED

MELBOURNE
_________________________
R3 NO. 8 APHID
R8 NO. 1 HI BELLE

SYDNEY
_________________________
R3 NO.5 LACADA SIREN
R4 NO.5 WILD OATS
R5 NO.3 PATRICIAN'S GLORY

Good start Plugger. I didnt like Lacarda either. havent looked at the other races yet.

Smart picking there Plugger, 3 out of 5 with couple of tight placings to make it interesting.

RANDWICK
Race 1 9 Shannara
Race 2 1 Al Dhafra

Lays 24/4
Randwick R2 - 1 Al Dhafra
Randwick R5 - 8 Palacio De Cristal
Eagle Farm Race 5 - 2 Fast Talker

Good Luck!
I may post a few later in the day.

Good luck laying SHANNARA today NUDGE ran outstanding figures last start is a great bet today...

Here's my lays today

MELBOURNE (SANDOWN)

R1 NO.5 SPARKS FLY
R2 NO.4 REFLECTION
R6 NO.8 WOOKAH + THE WINGMAN
R7 NO.10 LUMINOUS HARMONY

____________________________________

SYDNEY (RANDWICK)

R4 NO.4 KUDAKULARI

____________________________________
BRISBANE (EAGLE FARM)

R2 NO.12 ABSENT FRIENDS :-)

Is TopTipster gonna post some lays today? I need to know what im betting on for the win

Close call there NUDGE on Shannah!

I'm going for
ZAVITE in the Cup.

Great start Al Dhafra! UNPLACED.
and backing Dariana helped more

Well done TheNudge. Hope ya got a bit of of them!

You're on fire Plugger. Firstly its Typhoon Tracy to win well in the doncaster and then Shannara is a great bet...

Thanks lads. Lets just hope No Wine No Song wins!

3 from 3. All unplaced. Highest Price $6.
Cheers

Good picking by all here today. Cheers.

FLEMINGTON
Race 2 1 True Persuasion-signs were there last start that its looking for the paddock. Big risk today

Congrats to all on yesterdays lay bets, great work.

Bang!

It wasnt a great bet though. $1.30 for the place, $3.20 laying it to win...

Lol, thanks dad.

betting based on figures will leave you extremely well down long-term and thats been proven in the last fortnight

Much easier to read the form and watch video replays, but if figures/ratings work for you, thats fine then mate. I had bacon this morning for breakfast, I had no eggs, was wondering if you could help me out plugger

So let me get this straight plugger....
It took you 6 years to work out that better horses run faster times than inferior horses.
That'll do me.

haha not until she wins a decent open class race.

LAYS 28/04/2010
__________________________
SYDNEY (CANT)
R1 N0.5 NO REINS
R4.NO.4 LOADED ROCKS
R5.NO'S 3 & 8 AMBITIOUS PRINCESS + BRIGHTNIGHT

MELBOURNE - CAULFIELD

LAYS
___________________
R3 NO.5 BEL SHOES
R6 NO.1 SKIDDAW PEAK
R8 NO.11 TEE AMAR

SYDNEY - HAWKESBURY

LAYS
___________________
R7 NO.4 KHAS KHURA
R8 NO.11 FRENCH NEWS

BRISBANE - EAGLE FARM

LAYS
____________________
R1 NO.1 JACKPOT
R3 NO.3 TURNITUP
R6 NO.10 OLONANA

GOOD LUCK !

For my band of loyal supporters I have one Lay of the day......

Hawksbury:
Race2 No 4 Pinwheel........poor speed figures when compared with a couple of others and good value Lay at $1.70 currently.

Good luck Plugger and toptipster.
Your not going to loose much laying odds on toptipster, so no harm there. I like it but not keen when its so short.
For those who do not have a betfair account or dont like to Lay, if you are following these then you can consider these horses to pot when cosidering multis trifectas win bets etc. You dont need to Lay them per say to make somehting out of them. It may help you a little with your punting.

My 2 big Lays have been scratched. Star or Octaganol and Circle of Fame.

Todays Lays will be(not a big betting day for me today)
Eagle Farm R5 - 7 Shuffle the Cash
Eagle Farm R6 - 5 Poor Judge
Caulfield R7 - 5 Cinecitta

Good luck!

My lay for today is:

Eagle Farm R6
GHETTO BLASTER

Cheers.

EAGLE FARM
RACE 6 NUMBER 5 POOR JUDGE

HAWKESBURY
RACE 5 NUMBER 1 RENAISSANCE

CAULFIELD
RACE 8 NUMBER 1 REVEREND LOVEJOY

No more laying for me!!!!...............:-(

so far so good

Result 3 from 3. Highest Price ~5.7 depending when you laid.

Cheers
ta

that was pretty easy

Nice one nudgey!! Nice to hear some genuinely good lays and not rubbish. Cheers!

Lay of the Day could just be Googly, Townsville R7 No. 1. Also the pick of the day I see.

Cheers,

Rated that on top myself but not by enough to be confident of it winning - good luck.

CANTERBURY
RACE 3 4 POWER OF LIGHT
RACE 6 1 BOHEMIAN SPIRIT

WARRNAMBOOL
RACE 5 4 BLACK AND BENT
RACE 7 2 KING KALAKAUA

Hmm King Kal would get the chocies today bit short though,

Anyone Game to lay Jerezana?

SYDNEY CANTERBURY

LAYS
___________________
R3 NO 9 Irish Nine
R6 NO 3 So Generous

LAY OF THE DAY
____________________

WARRNAMBOOL R7 NO 2 King Kalakaua

Lay of the Day, INTERMAC Canty R7.

JEREZANA is too short but no lay for me, all depends how the race is run but three good and obvious chances for mine BEYONCE'S STAR, JEREZANA & FASHION STATEMENT. Still her figures aren't dominant in this and her get back style doesn't support her very short current quote.

King Kalakua cost a few of you today. Got the Double TheNudge at Warrnambool!
Keep at it. A few loses dont matter, if you keep on the right side with your Lays!!

Lay of the Day, ONE EYED Rocky R2 No. 3.

Well done chillipatch, I marked it as a big lay also. I just missed on layin git the place aswell, market closed, shattering.
It had a very bad record at the distance!

Looks like this thread needs a little support, so here is my lay of the Day:

Sunny Coast R7 INSPIRATIONAL LASS No. 5.

Good work Chillipatch. Had a look at the form and totally agreed! Could not believe how short it was... Better for us!

Chillipatch will you be posting some lays tomorrow? I'd like to lay some mate, cheers and keep up the good work.

Getaway Plan finished 13th of 15 runners according to the RacingNSW website.

ROSEHILL
RACE 5 NUMBER 5 INFORMALITY
RACE 8 NUMBER 6 SIR NICK

FLEMINGTON
RACE 2 NUMBER 5 DUBLEANNY, 7 SCREEN
RACE 3 2 UNDENIABLY
RACE 5 8 KALLOGG

GOLD COAST
RACE 5 NUMBER 3 GRACEFULL ANNA
RACE 6 NUMBER 3 STRYKER
RACE 7 NUMBER 2 ROAD TO ROCK

Lays 8th May 2010
Gold Coast R5 - 3 Graceful Anna

Havent had time to look properly this week, so just the one!
Good luck!

MELBOURNE - FLEMINGTON

LAYS
___________________
R6 NO 4 IRAZU
R7 NO 4 LETHAL DEALINGS

BRISBANE - GOLD COAST

LAYS
____________________
R2 NO 16 START AGAIN
R5 NO 7 KANZAN
R6 NO 13 DEER VALLEY

MELBOURNE - FLEMINGTON

LAYS
___________________
R6 NO 4 IRAZU
R7 NO 4 LETHAL DEALINGS

BRISBANE - GOLD COAST

LAYS
____________________
R2 NO 16 START AGAIN
R5 NO 7 KANZAN
R6 NO 13 DEER VALLEY

LAY OF THE DAY
____________________
GOLD COAST R2 NO 16 START AGAIN

My Lay of the Day:

Flemington R5

No. 8 KALLOGG

Cheers!

$$$$ ATTENTION! 3 from 3 Lays VALUBETS wall, hurry! 3 more Lays to go $$$$$

6 out of 9 for me today

My Lay of the Day:

Geelong R 6

DISTILLERY No. 2.

My Lay of the Day:

Canty R4

INTERMAC No. 4

Good work chillipatch. keep it up!

My Lay of the Day is Sandown Race 5 Number 1 Tan Tat Brav

I want to start doing lay betting but I dont understand completely how it all works. Some advice from experienced punters would be very much appreciated. Thanks

MELBOURNE - SANDOWN

LAYS
___________________
R4 NO 3 AMAUDRU

SYDNEY - RANDWICK

LAYS
___________________
R5 NO 2 DARNEASY
R6 N0 10 LET THEM HAVE IT

BRISBANE - EAGLE FARM

LAYS
____________________
R3 NO 9 WOONGARRA
R5 NO 9 A TOUCH OF FROST & NO 7 HULL CITY
R8 NO 14 MOTHERS MILK & NO 11 JUST HILDA

LAY OF THE DAY
____________________
EAGLE FARM
R5 NO 7 HULL CITY

My Lay of the Day:

Randwick R7

THANKGODYOU'REHERE No. 11.

Thankgodyou'rehere one of the most impressive wins of the day...unlucky on the lay

pluggerduck do you lay these horses you suggest and with decent amounts? Cause BR3 number 9 would have hurt..

Fitto7 i lay them for a set stake so the shorter they are the more i collect. I bet to win(laying) 5% of my bank depending on what there paying. So far this year i am up 11% pot.

Thanks mate been looking into lay betting with Betfair but so far not taken the jump, been warned not to lay anything over $3 price as a $1000 lay could be pricey.

youre a disgrace to the vege patch chili LOL... you may have been a bit unlucky as my mail was HUGHYS mount was wound up for this... maybe too wound up ; )

Didn't see or hear race, so don't know how things went. To be honest I was a bit 'tongue in cheek' about it.
Sorry will have to make up for this to the rest of the veges!!

Thankgodyourhere absolutely bolted in. could have won by 5+

TGYH outstanding horse blackbooked after the first race.. today amazing.. cantered in at a reasonable price .. I would not lay this horse in anything it competes in this prep.

$$$$LAYTIP=Hawksbury 8 1 Kiss of the dragon$$$$$

Lay of the Day is:
Hawkesbury Race 6 Number 6 Luxe

I think your on to it this time nudge.

My Lay of the Day is:

Pt Macquarie R7

GRACIOSA No. 1

good stuff CP... both on the winning boat today

k66 miss aristocrat$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Cant split two today.

KILMORE RACE 7 NUMBER 2 THE WINGMAN

SCONE RACE 4 NUMBER 4 BORDER REBEL

Hey nudge, Scone R4 No. 4, brings back memories of THANKGODYOU'REHERE!

What was your reason for laying Border Rebel THeNudge?
I thought it was a super win last start and won very easily.
Do you LAY the selections you post?

haha yeah CP, fond memories. Ta, I just thought maybe that first up run might have left him flat for today but how wrong I was. He is a super little sprinter going places. I was hoping that the pressure was on... It was on, but he shrugged that off and won well, although The Jackal should have won

Fair enough, good to look for factors that will stop it also. If it was 59kg today then maybe. it was dropping back from 55kg last start to 53.5.
Anyway not much harm Laying them that short, better if ya other Lay to get done, but unfortunately it won aswell.
Good luck with Saturdays Lays. Hope ya can nail some.

Bad luck today Nudgey, but you should get plenty of respect from fellow layers for taking on the hot pots. I reckon the best way to get dough from this (and the most fun/best challenge) is to take on shorties.
Border Rebel maybe is a bit too talented (plus other reasons) for me to lay, but The Wingman was in the zone. The only reason I didn't lay it is because I nearly backed it.

Top stones mate, you'll get it back.

RAIN SHADOW - good horse but lack of tempo a major negative
NINE TALES - will get back and is poorly weighted vs SKIDDAW PEAK and OFFENDERS

Lays 15/5
Flemington R1 1 Sleepers
Flemington R7 3 Nine Tales
Randwick R1 1 Beijing Boy
Doomben R3 5 Age of Hereos
Doomben R5 4 Tabulate

No surprise... My Lay of the Day is:
DOOMBEN RACE 7 NUMBER 8 ORTENSIA

Other Lay today is:
RANDWICK RACE 6 NUMBER 3 KHAS KURA

Melbourne - Flemington

Lays
_____________________
R4 - No 9 Fancy Pants
R8 - No 15 Lakedro

Sydney - Randwick

Lays
_________________
R5 No 5 - Madeittothemoon
R6 No 10 - Trauma

Brisbane - Doomben

Lays
________________
R3 No 3 - Little Stranger
R5 No 8 - The Embassy
R6 No 9 - Viking Hero
R7 No 8 - Ortensia

My goodness, some brave layers are picking ORTENSIA!

Guess you have 11 horses running for you, but wont she
be better this time? Top jock, more distance. Only a wall
of horses will stop her.

Well if plugger is laying it, we'd better have a gorilla on it to win!

Well done Ortensia Layers. I was on with you.
Laid it win and Place.
Shattering I backed Albert the Fat last start, but didnt follow up

Yep well done, I wasn't game enough to lay it.
That's horses ah!

That was easy money, she was always a huge risk at 1200m on the Doomben track. However, the pace was on for her and although she had a little bump at the 300m, I thought she was below par. Dont know about her winter campaign after that

8 lays - for 1 third
ORTENSIA'S figures again proved the clock correct and i am sure many astute punters who use sectionals would of layed her knowing she would have to produce career high figures to win.
Having a good set of sectionals are invaluble for long term success laying horses on betfair.

Lay of the Day is:
QUEANBEYAN RACE 7 NUMBER 3 PLATINUM SKYE

Other Lays are:
QUEANBEYAN RACE 1 NUMBER 1 DANCING HILLBILLY
CRANBOURNE RACE 2 NUMBER 4 ELLY'S SPIRIT

PA85 DOUBLE DIESEL $$$$$$$$

ELLY'S SPIRIT, that might have hurt a bit.

A few winners again Nudge!
I backed Platinum Skye its a good country horse.

Good tough win there by Platinum Skye, and the same for Ellys Spirit... Oh well, back into it again tomorrow

Calling VICE too make some judgements this saurday for lays !! lets analyse you for a while..

under $10

Fantastic Lay-tipping Plugga............Sat was awesome and I liked the way you were prepared to declare Ortensia against the trend...........well done buddy!!..........:-)

Lay of the Day is:
MOE RACE 1 NUMBER 5 CORRIES

My Lay of the Day is:

Albury R6

ASSOCIATE No. 4

Also at Albury R4

WONDERVILLE No. 2

Think they are about equal value today.

Nudge, you should be backing your recent tips.

A6 13 VAINEKKO $$$$$$

You cashed up now gtuiop?

A question. Does anyone out there in punters land bother laying
the tips I put up?

If they have, they must have a good run from them.

Cheers.

I'll be looking out for lay bets. Go chilipatch!

Ive only backed a few but they were profitable so keep up the good work mate!

Lay of the Day is:
WYONG RACE 1 NUMBER 5 REIGNS ABOVE

Other Lays are:
WYONG RACE 5 NUMBER 5 WATSON
WYONG RACE 6 NUMBER 3 SHERZANDO
KYNETON RACE 4 NUMBER 3 FISCALIST

Not really confident with any today, so will put this one up as medium risk
to Lay today:

Kyneton R6

No. 11 SENSATIONAL LINE

Cheers.

Sherzando... where has that been? stunning win. 2 out of 4 for me. Well done CP

SENSATIONAL LINE blew out a lot from this morning.
Had RED STORY at Rocky R7 sorted as well, but didn't
put it up.
At least your winning horses were very short, so damage wouldn't be great.

Actually imo if your staking to your bank - you actually want the longer priced horses to win because you have a greater return when the shorties lose. If your laying level stakes then obviously it's the other way around but longterm it's very hard to succeed laying this way.

Ahh now i get the challenge! Ok plugger, lets have a bit of fun with each other for once.
How many lays would you like?
I think I should agree to nominate a lay in every Sydney race on Saturday, they have to be under $10.
But IF ANYONE IS READING THIS DO NOT BACK MY LAYS, IM NOT VERY GOOD AT THEM, THIS IS JUST FOR A BIT OF FUN.
But if any of my lays win, I will be more than happy to admit I failed. Watch and learn plugger!

Actually Plugger I don't follow you. I thought that the way to profits is to limit your
liabilities and boost your gains. You lose big time on one of your selections
(eg. yr horse wins at say 16 with a bet of $100, you lose $1500.) If your horse wins
at low odds yr loss is considerably less. (eg. yr horse wins at 2.5 with a bet of $100
you lose $150.) So if I collect 8 out of 10 lays at 2.5, at $100 a pop, I profit $900
(That is $1200 - $300 = $900.) One $1500 loss can wipe my bank. Why do you think
Betfair always offer the lowest odds as your best bet?

My average at the moment is about 8 out of 10, so I am looking at a consistant
$900 profit for a week. My picking winners is only average, so that probably
works in my favour.

Here's your chance to show us a better way.

Chillipatch, I believe Pluggerduck means he is staking his bank. Eg, laying each horse for a %of Bank.
Eg is you have 1000bank, you lay for 5%, so your Liability is $50, hence the shorter the price the more you win, the longer the less you win.

Plugger if your basis is on teh fact you will loose 1 in 10 then yes the longer price the winning selection the better. But when staking %bank it doesnt matter really if you loose, when you loose the same %amount.

For those posting Lays, would be great to keep a running tally of how you are going for the Lays you post., each time.

Currently I have posted 25 selections for 3 winners.

OK, I have posted 18 selections for 3 winners (losers!). Most have been short priced.
Actually 83% which is consistant with my calculations above.

a Loss of $500 can be staked over nxt 5 Lays to recoup that Loss & still make a profit

CHILIPATCH are you actually betting -laying your selections on betfair ? if so what is your avg div and strike rate ? You need a bank and staking plan because successful betting - laying is about maximising your profit dollars while protecting your betting capital and confidence so you can continue when faced with a significant losing period. The only way you can do this is by getting your bet size right. If you bet too much on each selection then a normally expected losing run could send you broke. If you don't bet enough then your risk will always be below the level you could actually tolerate and you won't make as much as you could (or should) with your betting capital.

Lay of the day
_________________
Melbourne - Sandown

Race 5 No 7 Base

His win at Seymour was run in very slow sectionals producing a slow overall time - he may well improve on those figures but until he does backing horses's with similar profiles - (figures that rank poorly in a race) will leave you well down longterm and history clearly shows they don't win enough to justify there price.

Sydney
_________________
R5 No 5 Crunches

Thanks Pluggerduck, I understand that. You are obviously a good solid conservative punter, doing well, with your feet on the ground. We can all learn from you.

Lays:

SANDOWN RACE 7 NUMBER 5 MASTER OF DESIGN

CANTERBURY RACE 1 NUMBER 4 DAYTONA BEACH

SUNSHINE COAST RACE 5 NUMBER 1 BEAR'S ECHELON

BALAKLAVA RACE 1 NUMBER 10 SISTER SWANK

Hey Plugger, isn't it a good thing if a horse is able to make up ground off a slow tempo? even if their finish isn't that quick itself.

Yes but It's all relative to the overall time because it may magnify the run due to the opposition.
I look for horses like TEE EMAR who have defied the fast pace to run very well rather than a horse who finished well off a slow pace because when your a backmarker race conditions are out of your hands and they can also cop interference especially in big fields - i'd rather back horses who control the race and sprint away as the majority of our races are run like that in Australia, in run position is vital to a horses chance because it's a major adavantge too race up on the pace.

I look to lay horse's who to the naked eye have run well but haven't produced on the clock especially when they haven't produced good overall time.

My belated Lay of the Day is:

Balaklava R6

EDGE OFF No. 2

Well chiliptach and TheNudge, that was not good lay tipping.
Could I have done better - no.
Pull up your socks you two.

Sorry, my actual lay was Balaklava R5 No 6, but I pulled it because they changed the
distance from 2200 to 1600, haven't struck that before. No 6 got 4th!

3 out of 4 isnt good?

Plugger are we doing this lay challenge thing you threw out to me or not? Toptipster said I wouldnt take you up on it so he's wrong straight away as usual.
Im happy to have a go, ive got nothing to lose.
This is what I put in my earlier post -

"I think I should agree to nominate a lay in every Sydney race on Saturday, they have to be under $10.
Prices to be taken from Friday's 'Daily Telegraph'
But IF ANYONE IS READING THIS DO NOT BACK MY LAYS, IM NOT VERY GOOD AT THEM, THIS IS JUST FOR A BIT OF FUN.
But if any of my lays win, I will be more than happy to admit I failed. Watch and learn plugger!"

Nudge, If you are backing your tips to loose a certain amount eg. $100, then I'm pretty sure you would have lost today. Due to the prices are your 3 successgul Lays. But if you are laying say $100 pre tip you may be very slightly ahead once commission is taken out.

Feel free to post you Lays xxvicelifexx.

Not a great day for the Lays posted today. Hit back next time1

would be good to track results each time.

Hi TheNudge
If you are talking just numbers then 3 out of 4 for Lays is poor. I would think that 8 out of 9 would be about par and 11 out of 12 acceptable.
I'm watching you guys.
(I told you before I couldn't do any better myself.)

T 8 13 Darth

Lays Today:
KEMBLA RACE 1 NUMBER 1 WAKE IN FRIGHT
KEMBLA RACE 2 NUMBER 4 RIGGING
KEMBLA RACE 3 NUMBER 3 FREYBERG
KEBMLA RACE 6 NUMBER 8 TURF HERO
KEMBLA RACE 8 NUMBER 2 LETCHWORTH
BENDIGO RACE 6 NUMBER 10 REVERBERATES
MT GAMBIER RACE 1 NUMBER 3 CHATILLION
TOOWOOMBA RACE 1 NUMBER 2 LUCKY TOSS

My Lay of the Day is:

Kembla R 8

LINBOB No. 8

Plus bonus:

Toowoomba R 6

FASLIYEV DANCER No. 4

chilipatch, did you lay LINBON for level stake as you say you do. Betfair SP of $24, could have hurt!!

I was going ot back this just cause you had it as a Lay, but then i forgot before the race. Shattering.

gtuip Darth at huge odds, what odds did you Lay it at?

Plugger are we doin this thing? I really dont mind doin it for s***s and giggles, but i got poker commitments I could be concentrating on rather than picking lays that will probably only win on me, if you're not interested?
Let me know...

Plugger requested I make some lays for this Saturday, so im going to. Not sure whats wrong with that, and what its got to do with you. For a self proclaimed 'sports expert' you dont really know much about sport do you?

Ummm no Sportspunter (BLACK SOX) grow up and read the thread carefully. It is clear that Vicey is accepting a challenge for the hell of it. No malice there so give him a break.

not black sox.........please use facts.....

Lol, didnt realise I was angry, and what does deanjohn have to do with it either? you've lost the plot a bit there buddy. Dont take your lack of sporting expertise out on deanjohn. especially in a conversation between myself and plugger. It doesnt quite make sense, mind you neither does anything south of victoria...

VICE i'm over it. Don't worry about it. Mate i'll admit i can get fiesty sometimes and i apologise for any discontent in the past let's move on. If your not confident in your ability for laying then don't put any up, or if you want too put a few up and see how you go. Whatever you want.

Not good ah! I tossed up between Linbob and Monzero, published the wrong one.
I didn't lay it as it had blown out too far. littlenails will not be happy with me.

Backed LETCHWORTH to win though, should have listened to nudge.

small place Lay on Darth, ta.
MG 5 12 Sleatbank
MG 9 9 Little Beau

My Lay of the Day is:

Muswellbrook R5

GENTLEMAN PIRATE No. 6

All is good plugger, I dont hold grudges mate. I did end up picking a horse in every race in Sydney tomorrow that are under $10 (Daily Telegraph).
Ill just post them on my wall and we can have a laugh at them there, that way no one will accidentally look at this thread and write them down and back them and lose their wife and house in the process :(

Well done Plugga and Vice. Glad to see your sparring is all over and everyone's happy again.

Yes, good to see the sparring is over. Perhaps we should keep these discussions to 'Lay Of The Day'. That means all who want to, put up their best Lay and leave it as that. Then the guys who wish to lay horses can have a bit of confidence in laying those tipsters with whom they feel the most comfortable. Keep a record of all your successful lays and end your post with the success % to date. E.g. mine to date is 77%. Then when (if) actual laying tipping comes in, there is an actual track record for punters to look at.

For those who wish to discuss the merits and otherwise of the various aspects of laying, use Plugger's new discussion column of 'Lay Of The Day 2'.

What do you guys think? Only you can make it work, or not!

If you want to publish more lays than your best one, also use the 'Lay 2' Discussion to let them be known.

i dont lay horses unless im laying off overs... Today i reckon K MCEVOY is a good lay in the jockey challenge.. he has opened up at $1.70. ALso think JEREZENA is worth laying after opening at 3.60. I think you could lay this at 5s now and come racetime put your money back on at the 6s it will blow out to in order to cover your bum in case CHILLI is a fool!!!

My Lay of the Day is:

Morphettville R8

GOGOCANNY No. 5

My Lay of the Day is:

Mildura R10

Toronto Star No. 5

My Lay of the Day is:

Seymour R6

Mickys Magic No. 7