LAY OF THE DAY

Caulfield R5 NO. 6 PELLIZOTTI

$5.50 in prepost markets but profiles as the standout poor betting value in the race. The market is attracted by his 3rd to Innocent Gamble on Australia day where he came from well back and made up good ground. The major factor about that race though was that it was run in very moderate overall time with a very moderate last 600m. By comparison the Fillies division won by Crystal Lily (following race) was 4L faster overall and close enough to 4L faster over the last 600m(As i stated earlier in the week).Those figures don't sit well compared too some of the other good chances here. Even worse he will more than likely get back in the ruck which disadvantages him even more.

Canberra r2 OUR BARNEY a risk on dry????

When I did the form for this race, I was very keen on OUR BARNEY! LIghtly raced Guy Walter galloper who should go straight to the front and enjoy a very soft lead with top front running jock O'HARA on board. I was going to price it about 1.50 before I noticed that its dry track record is quite poor:
4/0-1-0. And compares quite poorly with its dead track record- 4/3-0-0. After reconsidering this I have re-assessed it as a 2.62 chance (13/8 in the old and my markets are priced to 100%).
As a result I am going to lay OUR BARNEY if it goes around at odds on. Only a moderate lay however.

2:49 Musswellbrook. n1 ASABELLY a risk 2nd up????

Asabelly has won 3 in a row, but its 2nd up stat of 2/0/0/0 combined with havng to lug top weight,
thrown in with trainer's Farley's 1 from 65 record with 2nd up horses in country races should see this horse face difficulites in winning today. Its won its last 3 so should be well in the market and worth risking even though it meets a weak field.

Good call on the lays theraven

Star witness

Figures are well below what will be needed to win this race gets back and is way under the odds at the current price of around $5.50- $6.00

Ilovethiscity.
Gets back, can it beat home Rekindled Interest if its with it at the back. I doubt.
Will need a stack of luck.

Sydney R8 no9

Whitefriars - form on paper looks excellent but what you won't see is that his figures only rank moderately here and at it's current price is under the odds.

Caulfield

Definitely ready
poor finishing figures last start would have to improve significantly to be winning this. Looks as though imo that at this point he's only of listed ability. Soul had outstanding figures last start and buffering has since franked that good rating race. Soul is by commands who are noted mudlarks. Closely related to papanick whose mudda was a mudda

hope that was you're money i just collected from betfair !!

Yep definitely some of mine surround ! Can't wait to get the sctionals on that race....well done mate

Hi surround - You snagged $30 from me also re Whitefriars.

M.v R8 N0.6
Status quo

Sandown - NIBLICK

well done plugger. i had it to lay also.

Doomben R7 No.2
Brave The Way

Currently $3 in the Pre-post markets which is clearly way under it's true winning chance in this race.
Obviously the market is basing it's price on it's competitive runs over further distances in better class because it's figures in this are only just competive over this distance. Add the fact that it's a get back horse in a big field which is only going to make the task ahead much much harder.
Is the clear lay in this race and i hope all you player haters back it because of me laying it on betfair !!
Horses's profiling "haha" as Brave the way is 2morrow will have your pokets empty very quickly....

Plugger, who have you got as the main chances?
I would mark it at a lay at 2.50, but I struggle to find anything i have confidence in this race.
I do think you will get better in running, as it will get back as you say

Yeah with Point Pain out Sway To Go looks the only other danger, not sure it's worth the risk at 3.6-3.8

Good run by Brave the way because it was an impossibility to win the way the race panned out with the leader Sway to go running only 36 secs for the first 600 and running home in 34 flat. Just outlines how important in run positions are...front 2 at the 600m ended up 1,2 at the finish post. Did have the best last 200 split obviously needing a genuine tempo and further.

Btw i will make it clear now I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL PUNTER and have never stated this but i do take it very seriously and have shown a positve pot for the last two years but i make most of my money of late trading and betting in the run. I have read many books articles and other imformative information to increase my knowledge on horse racing. So call me dumb for doing so ! maybe i do come across as a know it all sometimes but believe me i am just opionated thats's all.

One other thing i will say is that if you listen and follow the general public in horse racing you will lose bigtime because a majority of there thoughts and beliefs are wrong such as there thoughts on weight.
You need to investigate and research yourself because otherwise you will never realise how wrong they are in alot of aspects about the punt

I was interested in your comment Pluggerduck 'i make most of my money of late trading and betting in the run'. While I don't 'bet in the run', I find my selections are much better with some fine tuning immediately before the jump, and I quite often dump my earlier tip for one of the other runners I was favouring. Sometimes it's wrong, but many times the final selection comes up trumps, with the original only placed or out of the money. I notice you plug (no pun intended) along most of the time with your head just above water with the level betting, but with the small returns, it's very hard to make good money. That's another reason to invest late, as you can see the price crashing with the late money.