LAY OF THE DAY

Terang R8 No.10
Lunar Blonde

Will start much too short today based on it's opposition in it's last two starts. I'll be laying it today because it's speed figures aren't dominant at all in fact it's best career rating so far was first up against Varenna Miss where it rated an 84 which sits second behind iceway who has rated an 87 twice. Will get back too midfield or worse in a race that's devoid of speed, there is no clear leader and Lunar blonde isn't capable of running a fast enough last section off a slow too moderate tempo.

Disappointing this week, a lot less lays!

Melbourne
Champagne Ruby *Biggest Lay
Platelet

Doomben
Isopach

Sydney
Lucripetous and Tribal Rock.

Morphetville
My Ex Mate

Best Bets
Galator
Under the Eiffel

Hey Destiny, keen to hear why Champagne Ruby is a lay? I think it's just about the best of the day @ $2.50 fixed.

Champagne ruby has won two races at her home course after starting on debut when beaten to zabeelzebub, a horse of no repute. Wins at the home course are often misleading. Remember sheila's start? The last two races have been set up for her and she has had the perfect preparation for both of these races. For this run she has had 22 days off and steps up to 1600m for the first try. Combining with greg eurells terrible recent record at caulfield makes her horribly under the odds

On top of all of this i thought she jumped slowly last start which is something i don't like to see. ALso her win wasn't that impressive to the eye.

My Selections: City of Song from Her Diamond Rock. Forget the rest.

The case for i assume is something like this:

Looks to control the race from an outside barrier, has won impressively last two starts and looks to be a progressive horse in a race with horses of very questionable ability. It has had two runs at 1400m and looks suited at the 1600m. She has a emphatic win over quick retort who is well found in the market in adelaide. Furthermore her wins have produced spaced finishes which indicates a strong form race.

Still a lay ;D

I think she should win on what we have seen but agree, step in class, price is now becoming very short and probably continues to shorten. I found her on top but won't be backing her.

Like the chances of Rose Pattern in the race who maps well at good odds. Ominous Quality & Laker's Bay the next best dangers.

Best lay is Melb - Champagne Ruby Syd - Under The Sun Bris -

Good laying...

Well done on the lay. Can't believe found three good chances to beat it and had the one on top that didn't place. Lakers Bay got out to 60-1 on betfair, couldn't believe it. Form was much better than that. Ominous Quality very strong win, well done to connections. Rose Pattern disappointing, peaked on its run so needs one more, either that or it dind't quite get the mile. Champagne Ruby either the class rise was too soon, missed the start like destiny suggested, 1600m too far? Hard to say but again - overreaction from punters. Was really a 5 to 1 chance that could have been well found. Not 2.30 into 1.95 or what ever it got into.

In hindsight it was obvious, i cant believe i got tricked into HDR and CoS, both of whom have no form at all. I thought they weren't agressive enough on the favourite, who has relished a fast tempo to get horses off the bit.

And even more on reflection. Coming off a slow7 run onto a drying dead4 track. Maybe it just genuinely swam? Slow7 runs always get overrated due to the margin and this might have been the case. She still held on for 4th so she has ability.

6/6 lays beaten. Pity kalahar won though

well done destiny12

R5 Canterbury Mossamine. May not start fav but will have its backers after good win last start. But is 11:0-0-2 from barrier 11 or worse. And no Nash today.

Not many horses in the price bracket i'm looking for this week. I'm not going to go out of my way to find lays though.

Brisbane
Mental
Manighar

None in Melbourne, Adelaide or Sydney.

Yeh agree there isn't many disposed short price favourites this weekend. Looking around;

Hot Lover @ 2.40 scares me first time to mile, going up in weight and not a great deal of speed in race. Cash Bound & Xavi look like they could improve around it. The Newboy & Kilselmac Manner bring different form to the race. I found Hot Lover last start and was very confident - this time, not so sure. I think it can definitely win but maybe given current short price and early money for it, it will be a good trading opportunity. Lay it around the 2.40 mark and get it back at around 3.00?

If Chasse opens up around 6,7-1 on bet fair 30 minutes before lay it and back it back later to make a save. Goes up in weight, drawn out terribly wide and different form comes to this race with Module, Noble Park etcetera. Would expect it to drift maybe as far as 15 dollars. I can't see it winning. Just referring to tab.com.au's current markets by the way as a reference.

I thought hot lover would be very hard to beat, they couldn't have went slower and HL still picked them up. Its true there is no speed in the race but i don't see that as to being a reason as to why he won't win again. I thought cash bound was the only danger. I could see it opening up at odds on.

I thought Chasse was overs actually. He's progressive and will be there again, i rated noble park on top - but i'm no rap for the horse - from chasse and playwright in for third. Playwright really should have won last start but chasse still beat him, although the negative jockey change is noted. I give module none, it is well documented he can't survive a long prep and now hes bit up a while, and the rest of them are yuck.

I'm Sure these will change during tomorrow but these were my early selections for flemington

R1: Crystal Web
R2: Donna Cattiva, Landale, Affable
R3: Hot Lover, Cash Bound
R4: Noble Park, Chasse, Playwright
R5: Stratcombe, Perturbo, Shopaholic, Spurcific
R6: Kirribilli Gold, Maythehorsebemagic
R7: Adamantium, Utah Saints, Alpha Proxima
R8: Puissance de Lune, Cosmic Causeway, Dr NipandTuck

For Multiple selections in a race, it means that i could back either of them, it is all price dependant.

I wouldn't take 10-1 Chasse but could entertain him around 15-1. Currently is 6-1. Thats more my point. Carries 58kg which is 2 up on last start. Back onto a firmer track is fine but it will suit others more than it. Drawn 12 which is no different to its good runs this prep & last start but it can all add up when you probably won't get a perfect run and you go up in weights.

The reason I thought Module was a huge danger was it gets in with 52.5kg compared to Chasse's 58. 5.5kg the better. Last time they met. Playwright won with 57, Chasse second with 55.5 and Module 3rd with 55.5 (beaten 1.3L). Playwright carries 58kg and drawn barrier 17. Chasse carries 58 from barrier 12. Module carries 52.5 from barrier 3. That is why it is attractive. His Warnambool cup run was very good first time showing good staying ability above 2000m in a very good form race. If you don't like it because you are worried about the prep then thats fair enough. I would definitely be playing around Chasse & Playwright though at the weights.

Module, Noble Park, Elusive King & My Bentley look far more attractive chances from a form perspective for mine. Hence @ 6-1 I can only see it seriously drifting come race day.

Totally agree with you regards to Hot Lover & did find Cashbound as the main danger finally down in the weights but it has same problem in regards to pace. I just thought they might risk her at 2.50 tomoro rather than launch into it. I would risk her. Horses with good profiles like she does can shorter though so if she did shorten more than that would be more attractive from a laying perspective for mine.

MR2) Fiveandahalfstar

Hot Lover there you go lay of day landed. Scratchings made it even tougher for it with Xavi out of the race and all its price did was shorten.

Chasse as suggested massive drifted think it was 10-1 bet fair even after some morning scratchings. Must admit I did get nervous when it loomed.

Noble Park sensationally backed and was really 'gutless'.