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Hyland Race Colours Autumn Stakes (Caulfield R5)


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PuntersParadise

 wrote Feb 8 at 7:22am2012-02-08 07:22:43

This race is up for discussion but don't just leave a tip. Please include an explanation as to why you think a horse will or won't win. For good early fixed odds we recommend betting with Centrebet. You can click here to open an account now an receive a bonus $300 bet.

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TheCat

 wrote Feb 9 at 12:09am2012-02-09 00:09:57

Seriously, Specter at 13's?? Take the overs

bennymac8

 wrote Feb 9 at 12:39pm2012-02-09 12:39:45

I'm pretty keen on Huegill here, his first up effort was good, made solid ground on a leader bias day, step up in distance will suit him and should get a good run from the gate. ill be taking the 7's

destiny12

 wrote Feb 9 at 12:54pm2012-02-09 12:54:42

Specter was flattered first up and i would be shocked if specter didn't at least get out to $15. You should probably wait if you are that keen to back it.

TheCat

 wrote Feb 9 at 1:17pm2012-02-09 13:17:40

I have to disagree destiny. I thought his run was full of merit over an unsuitable distance first up. He beat home 4 runners in that race who are currently shorter than him for this race. The current favourite is a horse who couldn't even get pass a horse called at the heads(and let's be honest, it's no superstar). It will relish the 1400m 2nd up, and last prep 2nd up it beat home chase the rainbow over 1400m. Looks the goods to me. Ultra consistent and always go's around well over the odds...

zebesty

 wrote Feb 9 at 2:29pm2012-02-09 14:29:40

I like Specter too, but the one ill be watching in the ring is sabrage, if it looks the goods i'll have a piece of those odds

destiny12

 wrote Feb 9 at 11:19pm2012-02-09 23:19:08

The race wasn't unsuitable at all. With the rail out at 7m, and the way the wind was blowing, horses on the inside and on the pace had a huge advantage. on the 26th, only 4 barriers won. Barrier 3 three times, barrier 2 and 1 once and barrier 5 three times. Not a coincidence. In the race of concern, the finishing barrier position were: 2-3-1-4. He had the perfect run and was simply not good enough. A bunched finish further casts suspicion over the strength of the race. Specter will now have to deal with an awkward barrier in a race which looks to have a lot less speed in it than the last.

Onto the race, and Pied a Terre looks to me to be the overs - he was unsuited last start from an awkward barrier (with more on pace horses) and never got into the race. Instalment should cross from the wide gate and get an easy lead, with Pied a terre sliding across outside it, or into the 1-1 position. From here, PAT will be able to control the race and sprint away as he sees fit. He is now 3rd up and comes from a different formline to the rest of these. The only query on Pied a terre, is the question of whether he has the gatespeed to actually do what i just said. The 1400m start is on a turn and he could end up doing a bit of work early. Of the rest, mr milton performed well from a wide gate last start and can improve and instalment should be around the mark with the barrier change.

tankstips

 wrote Feb 10 at 12:20am2012-02-10 00:20:56

ill be having a red hot e/w crack at benfica at those odds. Massive overs for a group 1 winner. Tounge tie on hopefully explains last start. Far too much value to ignore

gartman

 wrote Feb 10 at 5:44am2012-02-10 05:44:21

I have to agree with destiny12 and with Pied a Terre. He is overs for sure, I have him at around the $3.90 mark for this.

Also think Specter is way overs as well. I have him around the $5 mark and Huegill $6 or maybe I am reading this race wrong.

BestSelections

 wrote Feb 10 at 7:39am2012-02-10 07:39:02

Think UNPRETENTIOUS is good thing barrier did not help 1st up, drawn well this time

UNPRETENTIOUS
Caulfield Race 5 No 12 at 3:10
Hyland Colours Autumn Stakes - Open (1400m)
Your comment: Watch when makes debut meeting got cancelled. Impressive win on debut MELB 25/8/11 got back early and wide most way moved up to lead went away with it great debut. Stiff MELB 7/9/11 slow out got cut out on jumping back last held up in straight pushed out flew late. Nice return MELB 26/1/12 went back came wide last 100 hitting line very strong

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