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Darley Australian Cup (Flemington R8)


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PuntersParadise

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 4:15am2010-03-03 04:15:26

This race is up for discussion but don't just leave a tip. Please include an explanation as to why you think a horse will or won't win. For good early fixed odds we recommend betting with Centrebet. You can click here to open an account now an receive a FREE $200 bet.

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Steels

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 6:05am2010-03-03 06:05:11

I'm warming to Our Aqaleem

numero_uno

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 6:33am2010-03-03 06:33:32

littorio has been running very well after a long layoff which has done him great after 2 derby preps and a melb cup prep, i am not a big fan of craig williams but he seems to ride this horse well. littorio has won the turnbull over the same t/d 3rd up beating a better overall field than this. $15 is worth having a go at now as i think he will be around $10 by sat.......

Bretto

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 6:44am2010-03-03 06:44:27

Agree numero uno, he is the one for mine.

TheNudge

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 6:47am2010-03-03 06:47:45

If I have said it once, Ive said it 1000 times.. get on shocking. The St George run was the best run out of that race

Bretto

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 9:47am2010-03-03 09:47:04

Nudge there are a couple of people on this site I always take note of and you are one of them, I just don't see how Shockings run was better than Littorio? At the 250m mark Shocking was going to run past Littorio but littorio then pulled 1.5 - 2l on shocking to the finish. Can you explain why the run was better?

whatashotbyseve

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 10:12am2010-03-03 10:12:36

Run was better in my opinion because Shocking had to make a long, sustained run (from around the 800m-600m) and peaked at the furlong. Residual fitness and a more spacious track means he is clearly the one to beat from my perspective.

Pluggerduck

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 10:18am2010-03-03 10:18:08

Actually ZAGREB ran better sectionals than SHOCKING from that race. SHOCKING won't win. MISS MAREN is a better chance than SHOCKING and i think there prices should be reversed. LITTORIO is definately the one though who's value here, he's going as well as last prep and given the right race conditions he'll be very hard to beat.

Pluggerduck

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 10:22am2010-03-03 10:22:02

Go back and see how strong that turnball was !
http://horseform.racingandsports.com.au/viewRace.asp?lan=&refID=&id=5983B624167EEEA93DEF

whatashotbyseve

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 10:24am2010-03-03 10:24:19

2 from 20 strike rate... no thanks for me! Sure the Turnbull was a good win but he was weighted to win it and his Underwood run was super. Big difference having 53kg vs 59kg at WFA. And it was 18 months ago. Sure he has an e/w chance but Michael Rodd will prove the difference.

Pluggerduck

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 10:27am2010-03-03 10:27:00

The trick too this race is predicting the race speed as there's no clear leader which will be a big problem for alot of these horses, that's why HOD'S should easily see the trip out.

funky-bobi

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 10:50am2010-03-03 10:50:41

divine rebel is my outsider for this

BestSelections

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 11:42am2010-03-03 11:42:24

have liked Shocking's run looks ideal for it to salute in this race, a rough chance Tobique they have had this race in mind for a while now

TheNudge

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 11:09pm2010-03-03 23:09:28

Just watched a replay of the St George, I still think Shockings run was very good. Littorios run on face value may have looked better but thats because the Australian may be his grand final, whilst Shocking is being aimed at the BMW in Sydney and he needed the run. 2000m, big track (home track), Rodd in very good form (as always) and he just looks too good for them. If there was to be a danger, I'd have to say Zagreb. I backed him last start in the St George and he ran a very cheeky race. I have been mainly focused on Shocking for this race but after watching the St George again, I just remembered how good of a run Zagrebs was.

toptipster

 wrote Mar 3 2010 at 11:55pm2010-03-03 23:55:29

Wasn't impressed with Shocking's run in the St George.....was entitled to run on better than he did after having an easy run at the back of the field...........not for me at wfa...

Plugga, I would think that Barbaricus will lead and set a reasonable tempo......might be difficult to peg back in the straight...........think I'll have a saver on him

Miss Maren ran on much better from midfield, and she looks the goods to me.......good punting

Mikka84

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 12:14am2010-03-04 00:14:52

Just some intersting facts about the AC. Nearly all of the past winners have had 2 starts before going onto win the cup. 1400, then 1600m then claiming the prize. And nearly all have won or placed the start before. Roman Arch defying that sequence having one extra start, and not placing, but paying 51-1 or better on the day. To me, it will be between, Miss Maren, Shocking and Sirminoe ( just because of Bart ) . HOD i just don't think has the acceleration when he's out to 2000. Our Aqaleem is the interesting one. 6 starts at 6. Placed in all. Can win almost anything on the day. Likes the sting out, and will most likely have it be this race, as rain is forecasted. I'll be having taking: 14, 9, 1, 4.

philone

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 1:42am2010-03-04 01:42:36

Sirmione For me wearing the coulors of the irish ..go Bart add this one to your mantle piece.

philone

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 1:43am2010-03-04 01:43:41

p.s don't pick out the spelling mistake.

Pluggerduck

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 1:51am2010-03-04 01:51:28

Why is eveyone so keen to back SHOCKING ? his figures are clearly showing that he needs another run.
Couldn't win the 100,000 JRA listed race at MV last prep third up. Wait till he gets to sydney.....I don't care if jesus is riding him...he won't win !

BootWhip

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 2:29am2010-03-04 02:29:40

"I don't care if jesus is riding him".... Is probably the funniest comment i've read on this site

whatashotbyseve

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 2:46am2010-03-04 02:46:55

You're in luck Plugga, Jesus isn't riding him... but God is! Rodd will get him home.

Moonshine

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 3:03am2010-03-04 03:03:40

After watching the replay of the St George again a couple of times I agree LITTORIO's run was a better trial then SHOCKING, he burnt a little more at the start and showed more at the finish. But i think if you like either of these you have to put MISS MAREN on top of them both and for that why cant HEART OF DREAMS win this? Personally I would of lined up LA ROCKET here and not the BMW.

As for the winner I like EXTRA ZERO i think his win over 1800m last start where he circled the field is a great trial for Flemington over 2000m. As long as Boss doesnt try and lead and takes a sit from barrier 16, he should have plenty in the tank.

Now apart from the 3 year old i think SIRMIONE looks good if you allow for a flat second up performance.

For the first four include ZIPPING (2 x Cox plate placegetter), ZARITA (meets the criteria third start back 3rd over 1400 win over 1600m - a very good run, won at distance G1) and HEART OF DREAMS (always include the fav in my first four).

Pluggerduck

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 3:40am2010-03-04 03:40:56

GOD'S in hong kong so your outta luck seve..

Runny

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 4:00am2010-03-04 04:00:03

geez MOATIZE is juicy odds! i'll admit he hasn't shown much this time in, but last campaign 3rd up he placed behind Theseo in the Ranvet @ WFA... good record at the distance, won at the track and the Master in charge.... 100-1?!

toptipster

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 4:51am2010-03-04 04:51:45

Plugga........just looked a little closer at the sectionals for the St George and now think that HoD's run was the best outside the winner. Can see him possying up just behind the pace and then going for home between the 600m-400m......think he will get the trip no worries.
Also think he was a bit flat in the St G after his gut-buster chasing the Mighty Mare in the CFOrr....will be cherry ripe for this and I'm going to have a big go.............already on Miss Maren who is now my saver.....

jazzer23

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 5:34am2010-03-04 05:34:56

i have masisve doubts on HoD's running a strong 2000m.......generally a strong staying type wins this race rather then a talented miler........There was a tonne of good trials out of the st.george but i also agree that the winner will have had to ran at least twice before lining up here.........SHOCKING will need the run and will be cherry ripe come the BMW.......i think the fact that LITTORIO was showing more then ZAGREB and has had one less run signals that out of the top chances LITTORIO is the one to beat in my mind........MISS MAREN has done nothing wrong and will be the on-pacer that will get the strong 2000m......wait for BARBARICUS over the 2400m and beyond......

whatashotbyseve

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 6:20am2010-03-04 06:20:39

Watch the replay numerous times, Rodd got Shocking going too soon to possibly win the race, he was just blowing out cobwebs for this. Also he laid in on Littorio twice in the straight otherwise he would have gone past him. Zipping is the obvious danger given his 2000m WFA record. Our Aqaleem could be the forgotten horse. That is my trifecta.

Steels

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 7:15am2010-03-04 07:15:25

The laying in didn't affect Littorio but constitutes extra lengths for Shocking?

Pluggerduck

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 8:04am2010-03-04 08:04:40

I really doubt HOD'S will have to run a strong mile an a quarter.....ZIPPING ran great secs last start and is also a hope. Here's how i have them placed
LITTORIO
HOD'S
MISS MAREN
ZIPPING
SIRMIONE
BARBARICUS
TOBIQUE

Sinestro

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 8:06am2010-03-04 08:06:51

"In Rodd we trust................"

chilli

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 12:48pm2010-03-04 12:48:47

RODD is outstanding isnt he... been saying for a long time he is the best in OZ... glad everyone is giving him the wraps now... genius!! BARBARICUS is gonna try and pinch this but ZARITA (oh yeeeeeeahhhh baby) lengthens stride, picks him up, spits him out and goes away to win by 4 lengths with SIRMIONE, HOD and LITTORIO lining up for third.... SHOCKING flies late with a big UNBEATABLE NEXT START sticker on his bum but its ZARITAs day today... no denying the girl she bloody well deserves it!!!

jazzer23

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 1:56pm2010-03-04 13:56:49

i wonder how many will launch into ZAR - "I CAN'T WIN AT WFA" - ITA..........?

chook

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 6:37pm2010-03-04 18:37:39

Lay Shocking........Chilli how can he fly home with 59kgs on his back...just look at his previous 2000m form Baughurst beat him fair and square carrying an extra 3kgs. He's a 2400m+ horse, and with a light weight. definately not a WFA contender. Zipping will even leave him when they make their runs.

TheNudge

 wrote Mar 4 2010 at 8:09pm2010-03-04 20:09:31

Shocking is still a big baby, still doesnt quiet know how to be a racehorse, what we are seeing now is a hint of what he may become. He'll blow these away on Saturday and he might get the chocolates in the BMW ('might' because Im hoping Daffodil makes the trip over, I have plonked her)

chilli

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 2:11am2010-03-05 02:11:11

he is a better horse now mate (Shocking)... 4yr old Entire.. has plenty of scope this bloke and ran well last start... be ready to runa race but i agree not a winning chance with the lack of pace.. although RODD is a genius but it will be a big effort!!
LOL Jazzer... i think they will be a bit quiet for this one... there is an air of expectancy about her third up over the 2000m.

chilli

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 2:11am2010-03-05 02:11:36

or everyone is tolerating my weakness for her a bit better

gartman

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 2:16am2010-03-05 02:16:38

Heart Of Dreams on top 3rd up, take a look at his last few 3rd up runs. Shocking for 2nd who is fitter now and will be running on. Zippings 3rd in the Coxs Plate proves he is handy at this distance range and has ok 2nd up stats. And for some value Zagreb for 4th.Biggest dangers are Sirmione, this is his track and stats read well and Miss Maren.

TheSilver

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 3:09am2010-03-05 03:09:10

i would love to see Master O Reilly get home in this, but alas, i think he might need a extra 2000 metres on top of this distance to be chance! then again, even if he dd run 4km, he woud probably still fly home late to finish a gallant 4th!! my money will be on Barbaricus , should be rock hard fit, and that may just give him a bit of an edge against a few of his rivals. can't come into Heart Of Dreams, not in this class over 2000m. maybe if it was a mile he would be a deserved favourite, but i too have doubts about hm running a strong 2000 metres. so its Barbaricus for me, with Shocking, Sirmione,Littorio and Mis Maren my next best. also a littl each-way on Master O Reilly, just incase!

eagleillegal

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 3:59am2010-03-05 03:59:24

would love to see zagreb win this, but from barrier one, couldnt be in a worse spot, has to come down outside with no horses around him, loves the open space to wind up. Geez barrier one last two starts unlucky there. pleez just come wide on him Gatt show some brains.

Slacktown

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 5:31am2010-03-05 05:31:28

Heart of Dreams gets a cruisy run just off the speed and WINS. He WILL run a strong 2000m when they are going to be going as slow as they will tomorrow. Can't believe this horse has so many knockers...

chilli

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 7:00am2010-03-05 07:00:16

cant knock HOD myself mate... he has unfortuantely bumped into the mighty mare ZARITA which is the only thing he has done wrong... i dont think he is suited by a slow pace myself but cant knock him

MoneyTalks

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 11:07am2010-03-05 11:07:25

Don't bet the pool on her mate or the kids might have to go back to the using the sprinklers to cool down

Slacktown

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 11:38am2010-03-05 11:38:22

I have Zarita in my quaddie for flukes sake, but if you are a ratings man/woman you will see HOD rate off the scale for this race... Good luck though

surround12

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 8:47pm2010-03-05 20:47:43

can not see Shocking winning this ,it's wfa not hcp and only 2000m .it's an even race with many chances ,i'll be looking for something that has won at wfa.

surround12

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 9:12pm2010-03-05 21:12:51

he won't win for sure now

TheNudge

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 10:00pm2010-03-05 22:00:22

Bloody hell.. gargh!!! Now im pinning my hopes on Our Aqaleem, huge run first up, unbelievable. He will have come on since then and he looks awfully hard to beat.

gartman

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 10:38pm2010-03-05 22:38:46

With the scratching of shocking, my numbers are 5,3,11,2. I am putting Master O' Reilly in for 4th.

whatashotbyseve

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 11:10pm2010-03-05 23:10:18

Ahh why! I hate the unknown's of racing. Well I'm sticking with my weakness... Chilli has Zarita, I have Zagreb, was always going to back him a little anyway but he can be my tip, huge run last start all things considered given the savage on pace bias at Caulfield lately, back to his preferred track and did run a bob of the head third last year in a what certainly wasn't a weaker version of the race. Nice e/w at 15s.

Moonshine

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 11:24pm2010-03-05 23:24:39

no one likes Extra Zero? his last run was awesome.

vmro1893

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 11:27pm2010-03-05 23:27:59

i like both growl and extra zero

growl at 41's and 11's for place are very good odds

chilli

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 11:36pm2010-03-05 23:36:38

Hayes reckons AQUALEEM is his best chance moony and it has been backed accordingly... i have trouble trusting a lot of trainers but Hayes isnt one of them to be honest... BARBA is going to get a soft soft lead here... looked fresh last start... gotta throw him in the exotics dont ya? AQUA will go forward this trip i reckon This race is playing into the onpacers hands IMO... ZAR, BARBA, HOD and the spruke horse AQUA for the trif.

Moonshine

 wrote Mar 5 2010 at 11:44pm2010-03-05 23:44:50

Thats what im hoping chilli, taht they actually puch it a little so Boss can round them up and for that matter Zipping too should run in the first four. I dont trust trainers either as recent as yesterday afternoon i had mail shocking was spot on. Imagine Barbaricus and Our Aqaleem setting a nice pace for Extra Zero to storm home Hayes 1,2,3 with Growl running interference behind.

Leeroy

 wrote Mar 6 2010 at 12:12am2010-03-06 00:12:42

Tough race this but there are also plenty who can't win. You would expect Our Aqaleem to have come on in leaps and bounds from his impressive 1st up win. This horse has been placed in an Epsom Derby ! Looks overs to me. Can't write off Zipping. Liked his 1st up run and he's just a fantastic horse (winner of 13 and $2.7 mill will attest to that), you know he will be strong on the line and wfa suits him here. Heart of Dreams the other danger although he's suspect at the 2000m imo. Miss Maren and Extra Zero the only other winning chances I think.

DEANJOHN

 wrote Mar 6 2010 at 5:44am2010-03-06 05:44:40

Why not run the Cup at Moonee Valley on Monday?

I mean the Aussie Cup used to be run on the Monday!

Bretto

 wrote Mar 6 2010 at 6:03am2010-03-06 06:03:20

Well the first problem with that is that there would be alot of prepost money on this race being run at Flmington. Do you think they will refund all the all in bets?

Pluggerduck

 wrote Mar 6 2010 at 6:24am2010-03-06 06:24:28

No they are stay for seven days if your still alive if the complexion of the race doesn't change.

vmro1893

 wrote Mar 6 2010 at 1:08pm2010-03-06 13:08:55

can we get our money back from TAB seeing as its postponed

Molanski13

 wrote Mar 8 2010 at 3:17am2010-03-08 03:17:58

decision to be made today vmro but it looks like all bets are live. I like Miss Maren and Barbaricus in this too by the way.

Moonshine

 wrote Mar 8 2010 at 11:22am2010-03-08 11:22:49

Molanski what are yor thoughts of Ollie ditching Miss Maren for Crystal Lilly?

whatashotbyseve

 wrote Mar 8 2010 at 11:51am2010-03-08 11:51:47

Longer this race is delayed the more question marks arise for me... just think the two week break has played into Barbaricus' hands perfectly - couldn't have him on the quick back up but this looks ideal. This is pretty much a Sandown Classic field and I just get the feeling Zipping is primed to run a big one - he is probably the class WFA horse in the field? Shocking I was really confident about but how long does it take to get over a foot abscess, however minor?

Steels

 wrote Mar 8 2010 at 1:01pm2010-03-08 13:01:52

Still like Our Aqaleem, though would love to know whats happening with my fixed price bets that are already on.

chilli

 wrote Mar 8 2010 at 10:01pm2010-03-08 22:01:06

dunno SEVE i liked the way BARBA ran last week and then the quick backup up to 2000m... thought he would really sprint in this... i think the week off may not be a good thing for him... on the other hand this is tailor made for ZARITA now... all the other horses GF is over much longer trip and they will be trained as such throughout the week... ZARITA came into this nice and fresh and the extra week wont bother her at all... all my bets for this were refunded on the day (sportsbet)

Molanski13

 wrote Mar 11 2010 at 3:16am2010-03-11 03:16:28

Moonshine, I'm not terribly concerned for some reason but I was of the belief that Ollie doesn't have a mount in this? I am not Nikolic's biggest fan, he can ride a front runner but he's a worse decision maker than McEvoy easily but my bets are on so there's nothing I can do. I think Barbaricus has steadily improved and O'Brien is going okay. I keep coming back to the last time he ran over 2000 at Flem, just beaten by Theso in a photo in the Mackinnon, I think he'll be ready to go.

Moonshine

 wrote Mar 11 2010 at 4:11am2010-03-11 04:11:07

I read somewhere that due to the postponement Ollie stuck with his ride in Sydney this saturday. May be a contract issue, im not sure how the riding agreements work. But he was meant to ride Miss Maren last saturday and willnow ride Cristal Lilly in Sydney. Could of just been a journalist looking for an angle

Moonshine

 wrote Mar 11 2010 at 4:14am2010-03-11 04:14:24

Nevermind just read another article that says he also has the ride on Beneteau so i guess it was a no brainer to make the trip to sydney for 2 plum rides.

surround12

 wrote Mar 11 2010 at 7:46am2010-03-11 07:46:17

can not understand how Shocking gets back into the race .he was scr and now all is forgiven?

toptipster

 wrote Mar 11 2010 at 9:03am2010-03-11 09:03:52

Perfectly legal under the Rules of Racing surround.............what is there to forgive??

surround12

 wrote Mar 11 2010 at 9:53am2010-03-11 09:53:15

it might be within the rules, but when you take a horse out ,it should stay out ,be it 5 mins or a week before the race, a scr should remain a scr. what of the people who have had a bet on the knowledge
there's a scr only to find it's been reinstated . instead of a deduction ,should they get an addition ?

dr.whiz

 wrote Mar 11 2010 at 10:10am2010-03-11 10:10:06

The ruling they have made would mean every horse nominated for the race is eligible to re-enter?

Horsemiller12

 wrote Mar 11 2010 at 12:40pm2010-03-11 12:40:12

If shocking wins, TAB fixed are paying out on whover runs second to him as a win dividend... (if bets were placed all in prior to last weeks race). All bets placed before final fields were declared are obviously still alive on Shocking as well. That's my understanding... TAB couldn't refund fixed odds bets because of their computer system. Strange one...

toptipster

 wrote Mar 11 2010 at 9:42pm2010-03-11 21:42:18

This ridiculous and confusing situation has arisen because TABSportsbet has not followed it's own Rules of Betting........which in the case of a race being abandoned are very simple....

For All-In betting, ie all bets accepted before the final declaration of acceptances........the 7day rule applies. In this case all (All-In) bets stand because the race is being run within 7 days.

For Final Field betting, ie all bets accepted after final declaration of acceptances..........the 24hr rule applies. In this case, all (Final Field) bets should be refunded because the race was not re-run within 24hrs.

Now, those are the published Rules of Betting which have absolutely nothing to do with the re-instatement of Shocking which occurred under The Rules of Racing. This rule has been in place since Adam was a young lad and has been used before........

TABSportsbet has it's own reasons, no doubt, for ignoring it's own rules........my opinion on this is no more accurate than anyone else's on this site. However, I believe it to be an illegal and unconscionable decision which opens them up to possible future litigation........

Ps: Horsemiller you are using the term "all in" incorrectly in your post........that term ONLY applies to bets placed prior to final declaration of acceptances......then ALL bets subsequently placed come under Final Field rules.............

surround12

 wrote Mar 12 2010 at 7:59am2010-03-12 07:59:26

ah justice has been delivered

Horsemiller12

 wrote Mar 13 2010 at 5:40am2010-03-13 05:40:16

Gut wrenching... Picked out Zipping and Sirmione as the 2 best performed WFA horses a longggg time ago. Had some big doubles in the Newmarket with Zipping @ 15-1 Sirmione @ 26-1 with Starspangled @ 25-1. Ouch!!!!

chilli

 wrote Mar 13 2010 at 6:27am2010-03-13 06:27:33

want to hear gut wrenching MILLSY... ive had two allups today with sizeable stake... MARVEEN win into BE POSITIVE e/w into CRYSTAL LILY win into SHOOT OUT win into ZARITA e/w..... the other one was BE POSITIVE e/w into ZARITA e/w into DEVIL MAY CARE e/w.... my love affair with ZARITA is well and truly %$%#&#^%#$# over...

Horsemiller12

 wrote Mar 13 2010 at 6:38am2010-03-13 06:38:55

Hahahahahaha......... I've got the treble going for a healthy 200% with a few. Looking good for it. Couldn't believe the odds on Devil May Care. Had it 3rd pick. Poor Chilli... Denman TERRIBLE!!!!! Cost me a big quad.

chilli

 wrote Mar 13 2010 at 7:57am2010-03-13 07:57:37

%$#$%$$#% ZARITA with a shovel sideways.... couldve maxed out SPORTSBET twice... she was the only one firming in the ring cos of my ALLUP.. whilst im flattered im seriously peeved off... dont think we wouldve got 10s on DEVIL if ZARITA wins... aaaragh... torturing myself for my blatent stupidity.

philone

 wrote Mar 13 2010 at 10:39am2010-03-13 10:39:35

What a run by Sirmione should have stuck its head out further and Moatize my old mate reminds me of Think Big ..put him in the black book for the C>C and the M>C Bart knows how to peak them on the day ..nice eachway bets but it would have been a ripper considering they are the only two I backed allday.

surround12

 wrote Mar 13 2010 at 10:18pm2010-03-13 22:18:45

Divine Rebel is slowly coming back to her best ,very tuff run and still hung on for 6th ,start backing her e/w and she will pay her way.

chilli

 wrote Mar 14 2010 at 1:03am2010-03-14 01:03:49

watched the replay a thousand times and still cant believe SIRMIONE didnt win... our PUNTERS CLUB punter of the week had $100 to spend... $40 of it went on SIRMIONE straight out and had another $20 on JAZZ HEART into SHOOT OUT into SIRMIONE... unbelievably unlucky not to pick up a bag!!!

chilli

 wrote Mar 14 2010 at 1:05am2010-03-14 01:05:36

P.S how could ZARITA run soooo bad... even at her worst she wouldve run a hole in that... i dunno whats going on with her but that was disgraceful?

chilli

 wrote Mar 14 2010 at 1:09am2010-03-14 01:09:38

P.S.S gonna get my money back from MOATIZE no show in the SYDNEY CUP last year... he is gonna donkey lick them as he wouldve last year. Take any odds

philone

 wrote Mar 14 2010 at 10:32pm2010-03-14 22:32:40

Now he is over his puberty blues and as a mature five yr old we should some good collects on Moatize.

philone

 wrote Mar 14 2010 at 10:38pm2010-03-14 22:38:16

How is Hall admitting he whipped Zipping 10 times over the last 200mts and it was only way he could get the horse to win .. then the stewards tells the owners of Sirmione that they could have protested as if they should have informed all owners that this can be done under the new whip rules .. what if Sirmione was whipped ten times would he have blitz the field .. it sucks I miss by a head and a stupid mistake by the stewards.

philone

 wrote Mar 14 2010 at 10:39pm2010-03-14 22:39:42

Dean J. you are right there is something wrong with MElb racing.

podo

 wrote Mar 15 2010 at 1:32am2010-03-15 01:32:26

Head....? Sources say it was actually 1cm.

Leeroy

 wrote Mar 15 2010 at 4:15am2010-03-15 04:15:03

its really quite simple.....the BEST performed horse in the race won !!! Zipping has won 14 races and over 3 million in stakemoney now. Sat 3 wide the trip and still had the toughness to fight off Sirmione after being headed. 3 Sandown Classic wins and winner of 10 other races, twice placed in Cox Plates, 2 Melbourne Cup 4ths and an oustanding record around 2000m - 2100m (5 wins 4 placings 2 other top 5's from 13 tries). Melbourne Cup 4ths prove his toughness and Cox Plate placings prove his class. Was a dead set no brainer and nice enough odds to boot....get home you good thing !!

DEANJOHN

 wrote Mar 15 2010 at 4:33am2010-03-15 04:33:34

When horses can sit 3 wide throughout .... and WIN .... there has got to be something wrong with these Melbourne tracks.

I'm not going to knock back the huge all up collect that my members got on Cup Day when SHOCKING sat 3 WIDE ALL THE WAY, that is 3 wide over the entire 3200 metres of the Melbourne Cup, and still was able to go on and win.

I've never seen so many horses sitting wide and winning as there have been over the last 4 months. You just can't sit 3 wide on a true *DRY* track and win as often as horses currently are.

There is only one answer. With all the excessive watering, the INSIDE MUST BE INFERIOR!

Which is ridiculous. Because the best barrier should always be Barrier ONE. And if you draw the inside barrier, you should be excited. Instead NOW, you are worrying whether the rails is off.

It's just another unpredictable factor in trying to pick winners consistently in Melbourne.

Leeroy

 wrote Mar 15 2010 at 5:00am2010-03-15 05:00:43

imo Flemington is BY FAR the fairest track in Australia. Master Harry won the 1st after racing on the fence (in 57.55 sec running .6 faster than the open class sprinters before the track upgrade !!!). Response raced 1 off the fence and won. Vigor raced on or 1 off fence and just got bloused. Be Positive and Red Flair raced on the inside and quinella'd their race. The open class sprint Mrs Waters raced up the inside rail and was beaten 3/4l. Zipping after being 3 wide on the circle was able to kick back and win racing inside Sirmione the last 200m. Georgia's Boy raced on the inside and was beaten a nose. Seemed pretty fair to me. You will always get some horses who race 3 wide and still win but love to see the stats....there wouldn't be many ! Shocking was just so well weighted in the Cup and Zipping was just a superior horse compared to his rivals at wfa over 2000m

thecommando

 wrote Mar 15 2010 at 6:19am2010-03-15 06:19:39

Dunno about that inside of flemington being inferior, dont think you can really use zipping as an example, he was the only good WFA horse in australia competing in that race and if the inside was inferior something either on his back or swooping around him should have beaten him, he won because he is a better horse than any other in the field

philone

 wrote Mar 15 2010 at 7:36am2010-03-15 07:36:10

He won as Hall said "if he did not use the whip as many times as he did the horse would not have kept his mind on getting to the line "..I ask the question if the others including the great run by Moatize was allowed to use the whip as many times as Hall I beg to differ on the result regardless .But one peaves me is the rules of protest was not spelt out until after the race is all over personally he should have lost the race on protest but good luck to those that backed him.

philone

 wrote Mar 15 2010 at 7:40am2010-03-15 07:40:08

Podo thanks if it was !cm or half a head it still does not justify the result and the mistakes made .

chilli

 wrote Mar 16 2010 at 12:35am2010-03-16 00:35:12

i believe the race should have been taken off ZIPPING by the stewards... it won breaking the rules same as any other protest type situation when a horse has made contact etc etc etc... it won against the rules and regardless of how stupid the rules may be they are still the rules... its ridiculous after all the money we have potentially lost on the punt and the confusion around the whip rules and how they apply to our selections that a horse has broken the rules in a G1 and is allowed to keep the race... we said way back during the the whip saga that this would happen and now that it has the stewards are ducking for cover and making excuses how SIRMIONE had his chance to beat ZIPPING... what a load of BS... if NICK didnt give it to the old bloke there is no way he comes again and takes SIRMIONE on the line... no way in hades... i tell you right now if that was ZARITA who got done on the line in the same situation with the couple of hundred k i wouldve been set to collect, my lawyer would be on the phone to BAILEY letting him know that he is getting sued... it is a blatant disregard of the rules that these idiots fought so hard to introduce and now dont even have the balls to enforce in a blatant situation... they are bloody lucky its BART who ran second cos he thinks the whip[ rules are stupid otherwise there would be a storm of controversy here that ZIPPING and WILLIAMS would definately lose in court or at the appeals... 100%

toptipster

 wrote Mar 16 2010 at 5:56am2010-03-16 05:56:49

Two points chilli.........

1) The whip rules determine how many times a jockey can hit a horse BEFORE the 100m............from the 100m - Finish jockeys can hit their mount as many times as they like.........
2) The stewards have to be satisfied that any infringement of the rules would have changed the outcome of the race.............in this case nobody alive could say that hitting a horse more than permitted under the whip rule BEFORE the 100m would have given Zipping any advantage over Sirmione in the final 100m........and if you look at a replay you will see Nick Hall urging his horse on hands and heels to the line whilst Luke is flogging Sirmione...........

Conclusion.........imo Zipping won fair and square..............

chilli

 wrote Mar 16 2010 at 6:34am2010-03-16 06:34:08

you gotta be kidding me mate?

philone

 wrote Mar 16 2010 at 6:40am2010-03-16 06:40:05

Toptipster you miss the point .. the stewards informed the owners after race declarations and Hall admitted that Zipping needed to be whipped that many times to get him to the line that is why he has been penalized under the whip rules .. the owners had every right to protest and this should have been done after the stewards viewed the replay and then informed the owners that they can lodge a protest before they declare the race ..Zipping did not win fair and square as you say he won only because as Hall stated the horse was not responding and needed more strokes of the whip than necessary ..is it ok for some to obey the whip rules and some to take advantage of it at any cost to win..Chilli made a fair statement and it is the most stupid rule ever enforced on a race track any where in the world.

DEANJOHN

 wrote Mar 16 2010 at 7:27am2010-03-16 07:27:50

In Hong Kong, the stewards, if they think they may be anything that could change the race result, they will HOIST THE INQUIRY SIGN. They then determine if anything is amiss, and if there is they formally hold a hearing, and the connections are then advised and they can decide whether they too want to protest.

It's just impossible to expect the connections of SirMeOne to be counting whips of another horse while they are rooting for their own to win.

The stewards should have been alert to all this before they declared correct weight.

And as philone says, a jockey can completely ignore the whip rules, win the race and just cop a $1000 fine. PEANUTS!

It's just so unprofessional.

DeanJohn

DEANJOHN

 wrote Mar 16 2010 at 7:33am2010-03-16 07:33:34

One further point. If Zipping had not been flogged twice the number of allowable cuts before the 200, then, if you listen to jockey Hall, he would not have won because he may have been ONE LENGTH, maybe even TWO LENGHTS FURTHER BEHIND than what he was at the 200.

And then he would NOT have won!

Seeing the margin was a nose, was it?, then it could be argued it made all the difference!

RAFFERTY'S RULES if you ask me!

DJ

toptipster

 wrote Mar 16 2010 at 7:55am2010-03-16 07:55:51

Only giving my opinion philone.........and it happens to coincide with the Chief Steward..........the issue is not that Nick Hall infringed the whip rule. What has to be determined is whether that infringement affected the outcome of the race. Terry Bailey rightly points out that the number of times a horse is hit before the 100m cannot conclusively be shown to determine, one way or the other, the final outcome of any race........it will never be the basis of a successful objection.........

On the whip rules as they stand..........I agree with everyone on this site that they are ill conceived and frankly bl#%dy stupid. Excessive use of the whip has always been against the Rules of Racing, but to try to refine that rule in the way the racing authorities have done is impossible.....

........and, no, I'm not kidding you chilli..........

dr.whiz

 wrote Mar 16 2010 at 8:34am2010-03-16 08:34:59

The whip affected the outcome of the race because the horse would not have won without it's use. If the horse ran better without the whip it would not have been used. It seems like the rules assume that trainers/jockeys don't know their horses and it should assume the opposite.
I also thought jockeys were meant to ensure every action they take is to make the horse go faster/try to win (give it every possible chance) or to maintain safety. Either Hall hit the horse to go quicker or to avoid an accident, I'm pretty sure it was the former.

I can see the jocks in the protest room......
Steward : "You hit your mount 37 times from the 400m to the 200m, did it affect the outcome of the race?"
Jockey : "No Sir. That was to make it go slower sir, not faster"

I know it sounds like a silly idea but why can't the stewards have faith that the jockeys are all trying to win? Therefore when a jockey wins by a bee's and breaks the whip rule the rules assume the horse improved under hard riding?

thecommando

 wrote Mar 16 2010 at 10:01am2010-03-16 10:01:10

It's just a bad rule but it must be obeyed whilst it is still in the rulebook. Some horses just respond better to the whip than others. I think if the whip rule wasn't there and both jockeys whipped the horse as much as they needed to for their horse to win Zipping still would have won, but in this case Hall broke the rules and you can't do that.

toptipster

 wrote Mar 16 2010 at 10:01am2010-03-16 10:01:59


dr.whiz
wrote Today at 7:04pm2010-03-16 08:34:59

"The whip affected the outcome of the race because the horse would not have won without it's use."

That comment is an opinion..........not a fact. It is something which can never be proven........and that's the dilemna that this stupid rule has highlighted. No one has denied that Nick Hall broke the whip rule........but no one can categorically say that his illegal use of the whip affected the outcome of the race........

Even if the connections had objected.........the stewards would not have been able to award the race to Sirmione because it cannot be proven that Zipping wouldn't have won the race if Nick Hall had only hit Zipping the 5 times allowed before the 100m instead of the 10 times he actually did............

Bart Cummings has accepted the situation, whilst stating that the current whip rules should be scrapped....a position which we all share...........

philone

 wrote Mar 16 2010 at 12:22pm2010-03-16 12:22:24

I see your point TopTipster and agree they should kick the rules to the kerb .. is this the only place in the racing world that this rule applies to the whip ..if so than why apply it because than are not proving anything and I think the Jockeys have enough common sense to use it correctly as taught in very early years of racing.

toptipster

 wrote Mar 16 2010 at 12:57pm2010-03-16 12:57:27

The stupid whip rule is just another pathetic attempt to appease the animal welfare lobby that wants to ban horse racing in any form.........these people are zealots and shouldn't be given any consideration when racing is reviewed from time to time.

Take jumps racing as an example.........to appease these nutters, dangerous hurdles were introduced to jumps racing here which encouraged horses to run through them contemptuously and thereby increase the speed at which they run...........this magnified errors in their jumping and caused more spills and fatalities. Now jumps racing is threatened with obliteration here whilst it continues throughout the winter months in the UK and Ireland culminating in the current Cheltenham festival........

I almost despair whenever animal welfare is used as an excuse to curtail an activity that has been proudly enjoyed by countless horse loving racing enthusiasts............we ALL love the magnificent animal that is the racehorse...........and we ALL hate to see them harmed in any way.......... As the great Bart Cummings recently said........let common sense prevail (or words to that effect)!!!!

podo

 wrote Mar 17 2010 at 9:55am2010-03-17 09:55:50

Question is.......? why would he bother to whip it twice whats allowed before the 100m if he didnt think it would make a difference to its performance toptipster obviously he thinks it will make a difference or he wouldn't of even bothered, he didnt do it to any other horse on the day... Its a know brainer.

Steels

 wrote Mar 17 2010 at 10:03am2010-03-17 10:03:06

I don't think it didn't make a difference BUT if he hadn't of whipped it EARLY then in theory wouldn't there have been alot more in the tank LATE and quite possibly finished over the top of the field anyway.

DEANJOHN_HongKong

 wrote Mar 17 2010 at 10:46am2010-03-17 10:46:33

Why wouldn't you whip the sh*t out of it, knowing you are going to win a GROUP ONE Race worth MEGA BUCKS .... and only get fined $1000.

That is only a fraction of his riding commission, and it would only be a round of drinks to Zipping's wealthy owner.

It is a half baked rule, blatantly disregarded by jockeys in the big races!

PS No worries about counting whips at Happy Valley tonight. The stewards there expect a jockey to show the horse a bit of STICK!

If you have never been racing in Hong Kong, its on TVN tonight!

DJ

toptipster

 wrote Mar 17 2010 at 11:37am2010-03-17 11:37:25

Obviously he did podo.....I am making one point and one point only...........NO ONE can prove categorically that hitting a horse10 times or 50 times before the 100m mark, rather than the 5 times allowed under the rules, makes any difference to the outcome of a race..............the stewards know this and therefore it can never be the basis for a successful objection.........

Steels.....your point is valid, and would be one of many arguments any competent legal practitioner would make when appealing to a court/tribunal in the unlikely event of a successful objection............

A few others might include.........

1) What's so significant about 5 strikes of the whip before the 100m..... and then flogging the animal as often as you like between the 100m and the finish.........?
2) Do 5 strikes of the whip harm the horse more or less than 6,7,8.........etc?
3) Do the unlimited number of strikes with the whip allowed after the 100m do less harm than the 5 allowed before the 100m.....?
4) Should jockeys who don't strike their horses 5 times before the 100m be charged with failing to give their horse every chance to win?..........perhaps they have an arrangement with a bookie or laying punter..........Lol!!!
5) Is any allowance made for how hard the whip is used........by a relatively weak jockey vs a jockey with a strong upper body...........?

I'm sure there are many other arguments which could be used against this crazy and ultimately useless whip rule.........the sooner it is abolished the better........

DEANJOHN_HongKong

 wrote Mar 17 2010 at 11:43am2010-03-17 11:43:59

of course .... you could just ban the whip completely and then those little monkeys on top wouldn't have to count

podo

 wrote Mar 17 2010 at 1:25pm2010-03-17 13:25:08

Well why would he whip it if that theory was write... was he trying to get it beat are you saying. I backed neither horse so i am not one sided i just think he whipped it excessively for a reason, you think it would be to get more from the horse or why would he bother.

podo

 wrote Mar 17 2010 at 2:19pm2010-03-17 14:19:08

I totally agree with you toptipster it would be impossible to guarantee a different result but isn't that the same for most protests you could never guarantee a different result even if it seems obvious to most. How many times do you see interference during a race, next minute there's a protest, the whole racetrack share a different opinion on the protest being dismissed or upheld i've even seen bookies bet on the outcome. There will always be that "what if factor" in any protest, the decision normally goes to the best talker in the room not necessarily the horse that should of, could of or would of one if the "what if factor" didnt happen. My point being there will never be a guarantee that the result would have definitely been different will there.

For me the question is why would he whip it so many times if he didnt think it was going to help the horses efforts.
This rule was put in place for a reason ( albeit Stupid ) so the fine for breaching it has to be significant enough so that it will never be broken Or get rid of the stupid rule.
Form analysis will have to take into account the jockey who is rich enough not to give a rats about a fine.

Aren't stewards now obligated to do no more than just fine jockeys $1000 that do it, and the results over the line should always stand.... but do you think that will happen.....?

I would hate to be on the second horse this time and then next time it happens be on the winner and be done cause of an upheld protest for excessive whip use before the 100m mark, guaranteed to happen one day to some poor punter.

toptipster

 wrote Mar 17 2010 at 10:56pm2010-03-17 22:56:49

So many questions eh podo???.............

To answer your question about USUAL protests lodged by jockeys,connections,and occasionally the stewards.......you have to go to the REASON why the protest is lodged. They are ALWAYS lodged because the alleged actions of 1 (or sometimes more than 1) jockey has IMPEDED THE PROGRESS of a rival horse, and that this interference (which now controversially includes "intimidation"....) has cost the rival horse the race........this has always been the case. In these situations the stewards can quite accurately assess the the distance the horse interfered with lost by and determine whether or not the result should be varied.............

The whip rules were introduced because of PERCEIVED harm being inflicted on horses by using the whip excessively..........NOT because any excessive use of the whip causes any INTERFERENCE to rival horses which are running their own races........The excessive use rule has been in place for as long as I can remember, and jockeys can be penalised if they breach it. But this always occurred AFTER correct weight was declared and was NEVER used as a basis for an objection.......

The current MODIFIED whip rules put a focus on jockeys use of the whip BEFORE the 100m and specify the number of times the whip may be used. This has had the effect of most punters, connections, etc now being more aware of the issue and trying to suggest that the outcome of the race would have been different if the jockey had not breached the whip rules..............

If Nick Hall had breached the rules by striking his mount 6 times instead of 5 would people still be insisting his actions had any effect on the outcome of the race...........or if the jockey of Sirmione had also hit his horse 10 times before the 100m.............are people suggesting that both the 1st and 2nd horses should be the subject of a protest by the 3rd and 4th place getters?????.............

podo

 wrote Mar 18 2010 at 4:11am2010-03-18 04:11:35

I Totally understand the rules you pointed out new and old, i read he hit it twice as many times as allowed, my point is not that i feel the decision would have been different if he didnt use excessive whipping, cause like you said that would be hard to be sure about. What i feel is if the stewards are serious about this rule enough to have put it in place then they should have larger penalties to rub it out like disqualification for excessive use of the whip. 1 extra whip 2 extra whips show some leniency maybe, but Hall clearly showed no respect for the rules of racing and $1000 will not stop him or anyone else from doing it again which leaves the decision to abide by the rule or not up to the individual jockey, therefore making the reasons for the whip rule being in place look ludacris. ( as its still being inhumane to the horse.... but not any other horses in the world just thoroughbreds). PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEASE!

I have been brought up with the industry and realize the many many different ways of losing your money both as a punter and owner but to me Hall blatantly disrespected the rules by doing what he did and by doing so has created another way for more innocent victims to lose out in the industry. ( unless you own/backed Zipping).

Dont get me wrong i have nothing against Hall for doing it cause if i owned the horse i would have nothing but praise for getting it to the line, Hall put winning the race as his top priority and did what he had to do for his connections and thats what owners and punters would love to see happen all the time.

So in hope for fairness across the board F@CK THE STUPID WHIP RULE OFF all together, and never let the oxygen thieves that call themselves " Animal rights activists" have a say again its ruining owe industry.

THE END.

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