Danehill Stakes (Flemington R6)

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i'm not keen on military rose. she has a great record but im a little suspect on her 2yo form measuring up here. i said somewhere on here that ive been told shrapnel is rated right up there within the stable so i'm going to stick with him untill he proves what ive been told wrong. he wants a firmer surface than first up so i may be donating here. bloody tough race. the value might be buffering. has speed to burn and may be hard to catch and get past with most of the field looking like they will be trying to get cover and worrying about each other rather than worrying about the one zipping along up front.

innocent gamble at huge odds to sneak into a place.. forget last run should be able to run a better race on sat

Was told that Military Rose is flying at the moment and will win on Saturday if the track is dry, but likely to be wet so was warned to steer clear.

likely to be wet saturday.
very unlikely to be dry.

Columbus will be my anker here. Has the look of a top horse.

Wet?? They are talking about massive storms on Saturday. Its already a slow, if the rain comes you must remember the Flemington track can throw up odd results when its heavily rain affected.

Why is Columbus at $10's? The most impressive off season 2YO debutant last year and that was on a dead 5 so has far less convictions than the rest. Waiting for Shrapnel to hit a dry track.

buffering to appreciate the straight, with fitness on the rain-affected, the winner needs to beat him.

Really like star witness for this. Its run against Toorak Toff was excellent first up, Winks really good choice and will like being back at Flemington.

It'll be heavily rain affected ground and SOUL is clearly the horse to beat. Form around Toorak Toff is super, and his run was outstanding. On the line, it looked like he was looking for the extra ground, and $6.50 looks big overs to me. Might start $4 or less.

The danger in my opinion (and value) is REKINDLED INTEREST. Absolutely no luck at the valley last time when copped the backlash of the fall, then held up in the straight and hit the line hard the final 100m. Flemington will suit, might be looking for further, but put it in the quaddie at the $21.

I think STAR WITNESS is the horse with the future in this field but the inside barrier on a rain affected track worries me. I have had a little bet on SMOKIN JOEY. The straight races have been playing into the hands of the swoopers and SMOKIN JOEY will be stronger than anything down the outside. I am also banking that the track will be heavy and that he is a swimmer just like his older brother.

The tricky thing about this meeting is we will see how the track patterns/bias from Caulfield & MV play out-
From Caulfield (where the rails were 'off') we shall see WARM LOVE, FAIRYGEM, NICASTRO, RESPONSE, SOUL, MONACO CONSUL & HEART OF DREAMS who were all disadvantaged by staying close to the rails.
From MV (where the rails was the better ground) we shall see BULLBARS, MILES ABOVE, SMALL MINDS & TONIC. Those who seemed to benefit form the MV pattern were TWO HILLS, DEVILS FORCE, THE RUFFIAN & ACHIEVEMENTS.

Rated for a slow track.

My ratings have Buffering on top, winner two starts back on a heavy track races up on the pace where is probably the best place to be. Has 2 wins 2 placings from 4 starts this distance and looks to be hard to beat.

Star Witness for 2nd, finished just over half a length 2nd last start on his 1st go over a slow track. Is unbeaten 2nd up and is probably good enough to handle all conditions, looks to be the one to beat.

Soul for 3rd, has the fitness edge on many here and that looks to be an advantage if the track races heavy. Has not done too much wrong from his 3 career starts and is a definate chance.

General Truce for 4th, Another who races well on wet tracks. Races up on the pace, 1200 is his query but adds value to your multiples.

Dangers, Military Rose MM winner and only failure was in the slipper and is 2 from 2 1st up. Moody trained Storm Burst in the bog at good odds.

3,1,8,4.

Going to go for REKINDLED INTEREST was a big run 1st uo

SHRAPNEL
Flemington Race 6 No 6 at 03:20
DANEHILL STAKES - Danehill Stakes (1200m)
Your comment: Big run 1st start got back in field hit the line very strong ADEL 13/2/10 looking for 1200+. Nice win ADEL 27/2/10 sat 2nd kicked away in straight to win well nice horse. Not much luck 1st up MELB 14/8/10 wide early had to do work last 50 got going again

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BUFFERING
Flemington Race 6 No 3 at 03:20
DANEHILL STAKES - Danehill Stakes (1200m)
Your comment: Lead and won well again BRIS 17/4/10, 3/5/10. Thought on well after getting no peace up front BRIS 22.5.10. Nice run 1st up lead won well BRIS 11/8/10. Nice run 1st time in SYD 21/8/10 got tackled last 100

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REKINDLED INTEREST
Flemington Race 6 No 10 at 03:20
DANEHILL STAKES - Danehill Stakes (1200m)
Your comment: Big run 1st up MELB 21/8/10 behind horses held up had to switch back to fence flew home last 100

Storm Burst for mine. I know she hasn't done much compared to most of the others in her 4 starts but from what i've seen she looks like a smart type who loves the wet ground so i'm happy to take her at the $12. Win or lose i think she'll give a good account of herself and has a nice future.

Not a bad forecast if i do say so... They smashed it. Anyone notice Rekindled interest getting home? If they ran him in the Henry Bucks earlier in the day, he'd have been a morale.

Nice tipping Horsemiller. General Truce added value to the tri $170, not too bad.