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Crown Oaks (Flemington R6)


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PuntersParadise

 wrote Oct 31 2011 at 6:20am2011-10-31 06:20:44

This race is up for discussion but don't just leave a tip. Please include an explanation as to why you think a horse will or won't win. For good early fixed odds we recommend betting with Centrebet. You can click here to open an account now an receive a bonus $300 bet.

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BabyRag

 wrote Nov 3 2011 at 10:28am2011-11-03 10:28:59

Yes, my mistake. 0.2L margin in both races, just not involving those particular horses.

street_legal

 wrote Nov 3 2011 at 12:39pm2011-11-03 12:39:34

love your summation of the winner & the race Chasenit :D and who says australia needs more staying bloodlines lol. when here we have fastnet rock siring an oaks winner whom wins by seven lengths !

sectional & race times are interesting, trackwork sessions are also interesting but only interesting for forums such as punters paradise because in truth times dont mean much at all. for example unusual suspect ran the fastest final 200m in the caulfield cup but what did that really mean to the result ? it certainly didnt mean much if you backed unusual suspects in the melbourne cup.

costly commitment ran the fastest final 600m in the norm robinson stakes, faster than sangster but that didnt mean much more than (toilet) paper, in the derby when sangster flogged costly commitment again.

MUF88

 wrote Nov 3 2011 at 2:31pm2011-11-03 14:31:03

I would have loved to see that cheat weigh in light yesterday! would have been karma to the max!!!! it was clearly all the horse/opposition jockey's not applying pressure that one the oaks... not one Danny 'I like to cheat' Nikolic...

dener3

 wrote Nov 3 2011 at 7:12pm2011-11-03 19:12:25

If these 3 year olds are ëxceptional" any chance they can beat the older horses at some stage? With the exception of Sepoy (and that may just be a sad indictment on the standard of our sprinters atm,outside BC) the rest have had big old flop's every time they have tried to take them on. Still think there is a massive chance that a couple of good ones are being made to look like champions because the rest are 3 legged camels

BabyRag

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 12:16am2011-11-04 00:16:54

Interesting arguments all round. Going to agree with dener3 once again. Atlantic Jewel will need to beat the older ones as a 3yo to put her in the same bracket as Sepoy.

Plugga

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 3:57am2011-11-04 03:57:25

Helmet - Ran in open comapany failed but had a Legitimate excuse in that he clearly didn't get the distance so you can't base your judgement on that run, had he run in open company over 1600m he would of started $1.80 Fav.
His lead up runs and ratings had him up there with the best 3yr olds we have ever seen (Lohnro,So You Think, Weekend Hussler, Redoutes Choice).
His run in the Caulfield Guineas was extraordinary and you have to go back to Sunline to see an on pace 3yr old horse with such sustained speed
With Natural improvement he may come back even better which is scary.
He has Champion written all over him.

Manawanui - Never raced in open class. He could also be a Champion and rates only a 1/4l behind Helmet.
To get 2 such outstanding 3yr olds is exceptional and very rare. Could be a Testa Rossa/Redoutes Choice year.

Sepoy - ranked the third best 3yr this season based on ratings. Yes third! that's how good those other two colts are. The figures in the Caulfield Guineas were superior to anything Sepoy has ever rated and Helmet's guineas prelude win rated on par with Sepoy's Manikato win yet Sepoy carried 52kgs, Helmet carried 58.5kgs, so bringing the ratings back to WFA scale the rating again is superior in Helmet's guineas win.

So already you can see how "Exceptional" a year it has been for 3yr olds but it doesn't end there.

Smart Missile - rates equal third best 3yr old this season equal with Sepoy. Raced in Open company once where he was given a mathematically impossible job to win ridden cold after jumping away poorly. Not sure what Prebble was thinking but not one of his best rides that's for sure, clearly a forgive run but still showed he was up to that class running excellent late sectionals without ever gaining a clear straight run. He then failed to get the 1600m in the Caulfield Guineas.
His previous ratings in Sydney were absolutely top class.His run in the Golden Rose was amazing where they he ran top class time with exceptional Sectionals. You have to be a very special horse to be able to produce such figures. I for one can't wait till he comes back.

Again it doesn't end.

Moment of Change - The forgotten horse who ran outstnding time and sectionals at his only two runs that would of had him rating only 2.5ls behind Helmet had he race in the Guineas at WFA scale. With Natural improvement look out for him in the Autumn next year to be a major player in all the races he's entered. He a G1 horse after 2 runs based on time and sectionals.

Now to the fillies in which there has been One exceptional filly and two very good fillies to come out of this year.

Atlantic Jewel
Streama
Mosheen.

Update later. But as you can see it has been an exceptionally great year for 3yr olds and one that doesn't come around very often. Actually it's a rarity so enjoy it.

BabyRag

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 4:15am2011-11-04 04:15:10

Explosive revelations. You won't change my mind though, I'm afraid. Sepoy is the best 3yo I've seen this year.

Molanski13

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 7:52am2011-11-04 07:52:13

Love that info Plugga, however, safe to say they don't take into account Sepoy missing the start badly in the Manikato then going away from them to win as I thought this was his most impressive effort to date. What happened to Streama? I saw it win that race (I think it was grand final day) by 98 lengths and then never heard a thing? I'm assuming I missed an article about an injury or something? To mine Atlantic Jewel looks the one who might be the real freak. Her effortless wins reminded me of Weekend Hussler a bit when he was toying with the other 3 year olds.

BabyRag

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 8:04am2011-11-04 08:04:24

We could find excuses for lots of horses if we look hard enough. And just because a horse would start an odds on fav in a hypothetical race doesn't mean they would win. We can only go on what we know, and Sepoy beat a next start open Gr1 winner in Sister Madly. We could hypothesise that he would have won the Salinger as well.... but we won't. Imagine if Helmet hadn't run in the Cox Plate. A lot of people would be saying, "How far would he have won by had he run?" Now we know he is legless at 2000m.

Infidel

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 8:20am2011-11-04 08:20:12

I know another 3yo who hasn't even raced in group company who might brain the lot of them - Barakey.

BabyRag

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 8:21am2011-11-04 08:21:28

And before anyone nitpicks, yes, Sister Madly won the Salinger 2 starts after the Sepoy race, but again, we could argue SM was ridden poorly in the start after Sepoy, and probably should have beaten More Joyous. So many ifs and buts, but the bottom line is, Sepoy took on the older horses and smashed them both times. Helmet was expected to smash them but got smashed. Poor bugger had to go for a spell afterwards.

BabyRag

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 8:23am2011-11-04 08:23:04

How good is that one - Barakey? How far tomorrow, it?

beerent

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 9:55am2011-11-04 09:55:03

awesome horse winning with ease over here in the west.
needs some competition.

the_smokie

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 2:21pm2011-11-04 14:21:04

cant believe no one talks about barakey..would towel hay list n give black caviar the stiffest competition she has ever faced.

thecommando

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 2:41pm2011-11-04 14:41:26

No doubt a rising sprinter and sure to mix it with the best behind Black Caviar eventually but how can you possibly say that it would towell Hay List? thats a joke surely...

cmh30

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 10:04pm2011-11-04 22:04:30

I dont think Barakey would towel Hay List, but according to Jim Taylor, who trained Hay List in the west, Barkey is slightly ahead at the same stage of their career's.

BabyRag

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 10:33pm2011-11-04 22:33:15

I reckon Barakey would beat Hay List. Certainly Barakey seems to be going better at the same stage, and Hay List was flying as a 3yo.

Plugga

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 11:03pm2011-11-04 23:03:16

Yes Hay List is another 3yr old I have forgotten to comment on.

Plugga

 wrote Nov 4 2011 at 11:04pm2011-11-04 23:04:02

Wouldn't towel Hay List at all

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