Aussie Open.....2012....

Im thinkin Get on the fed express.......no sack, rafa, murray have suffered injurys season end..... Along with petra kvitova for the double...... Its a near cert, williams has doubt now with injury but u cant count her out... our sam although i hope she comes thru seems to choke on carpet, and watch out for our bernie, the guy is a future top 10......thoughts

Serena is too fat.. Her ankles cant hold her any more.. I think it can be narrowed down to Kvitova, Li Na and the beautiful Schivaone. In the mens, as usual, only 4 can win....really it looks like Fed is the fittest and playing the best ATM. Big Mark Edmonson will hold onto his title as the last Aussie to win it for another year tho Tomic is showing signs. He has put on some beef eh. Milos Raonic will go good too I reckon. Best Canadian since Greg Rusedksi became a pom.

I think the Joker is a special to win the mens. Not sure who your 4 are eelz because i am assuming you aren't putting Andy "chokes alot" Murray in the same bracket with Nadal, Joker and Fed. You also need to get your eyes checked re Schiavone. She looks like a bloke imo.

Haha think he made that comment tounge in cheek dener. Think Murray is in the big 4 category but agree that djokovic looks pretty good at $2.6, he gave ferrer a good beating last week looking very good

Aaah the subtlty of Eelz humour has bought me undone again :(

Well played good sir lol

beauty is in the eye of the beer holder as they say! she has a face like a kicked in bikkie tin tho, lets be honest... But those testicles serve her well and she is a tough opponent. Cant rule out LLeytons old squeeze Princess Fiona either I guess.

Our hewy..... He always wanted to marry his sister in aussie kim.....but he had to settle for hayley smith....im not sure he got the better deal!!!!jochim johanson thinks so....sorry madmax, no sack did beat ferrer, but ferrer couldn beat his way out of a wet paper bag....ferrer is consistent, but he is not much.....im on fed, we will c who triumphs in doha.... Get on the fed express

Why do him sack? He's number 5 in the world. And he beat him 6-2 6-1

No disrespect max but he may as well have beaten peter luczak 2 and 1 ....abit like wozniacki, when the perform on the stage ur up there

Wozniaki couldnt beat time with a stick. She is a womans version of Mardy Fish, tho she somehow got to number because womens tennis has been basically a lottery since the Williams girls lost the plot, and the Belgian girls either got knocked up or gave it away. Nosack had an outstanding year last year and is probably the one to beat, but im with you Liniby.. Fed finished the year like he was playing 5 or 6 years ago.. got his mojo back.

The lack of respect shown for Ferrer here is astounding!! He is a very talented fighter and knocked off Djokovic just 2 weeks ago!

I'm confused. All this Ferrer talk is in relation to David Ferrer right, not Rodger Federer?

@TheJugada the only result for a recent David Ferrer v Djockovic match up was a week ago in the Abu Dhabi Final and the headline is Djokivic "routes" Ferrer 6-2 6-1 so not sure what match you are refering too?

In that same tournament Djockovic also smashed the Fed Express (who was also beaten in straight sets by Rafa) and beat Gael Monfils (who has since beaten Rafa)

Rafa is pulling out of tennis for a while after the Aussie Open to rest his injured shoulder, so I wouldn't be touching him and the Fed Express just retired injured from his match (so bad form and injury puts a line through his chances in the Aussie)

Ferrer beat Djokovic 6-3, 6-1 in late November.

Yeah Djokovic smashed Federer in an exhibition tournament, hardly worth getting excited about ;) same as the Rafa result.

Also Federer only pulled out because of pre caution for the Aus Open, his "injury" is just a bit of back soreness he wants to rest up to be safe. Also to suggest he is out of form is ridiculous, ending 2011he was the form player and getting back to his best. To even suggest ruling a line through him is beyond stupid.

sorry when you said " just two weeks" ago, I took you literally. (that is the only reason i was refering to that event because I thought you were)

Didn't realise you meant nearly 2 months ago and was that the tournament the Joker was injured and had to take some time off afterwards?

Haha drawing a long bow there aren't you liniby. Ferrer is a better opponent then luzcak. The only reason I brought up the game against ferrer was to say Novak seemed to be over that injury and looks good. Not discounting federer by any means but just thinking Novak looks good at 2.6

personally i'll be having my big bet on the Joker and a saver on Thomas Byrdech @ $41

With all the big names going down on the womens side I'm having a go at li Na. Won the French last year and made the Final in Melbourne going down to clijsters

Like Li Na myself, but I'm certainly no expert on the womens side. Someone seems to come from no where every year with the ladies

Like betting on golf

the unpredictability of the women`s tour is what makes it such a joy to follow. everybody here knows which four men will battle it out for the men`s title but who can honestly predict the four women`s finalists ?

i think kvitova is the best bet going around at $5 but i`ll also be taking the odds on pavlyuchenkova & petkovic. all the old guard are quickly fading now, the wta top ten is filled with women under age 25.

Where can you get $5 Kvitova??

She is the form player right now no doubt and will be hard to beat. The ever consistent Wozniacki will be a big chance this year.

Petkovic and Pavlyuchenkova can both play brilliant on there day but their inconsistencies will catch up with them over the 2 weeks.

bwin & blue square both had kvitova at $5 the last time i looked but that was prior to the czechs winning the hopman cup (although surely that wont impact on her odds too much)

i agree that wozniacki is a much better player than most people give her credit for. she is no doubt a chance but her odds comparitive to her chances of winning, in my opinion, are too tight. i would much rather risk the larger odds of petkovic than smaller the odds of wozniaki.

She is 3.75 and 3.50 there now :( I wanted to back her at 4.40 with sportsbet 2 days ago but didnt have any money there and now the odds are gone which sucks.

Wozniacki wont drop any "easy" games early though which Petkovic can be risky in. If she makes it to the 4th round though she is the type of player who can beat any of the other big players in the tournament.

One at odds ill be including is Schiavone

yeah man, shop around for prices if you can be bothered. i mean there are an almost endless amount of online betting sites these days, that means value can be revealed anywhere in the world. bwin wont charge you for conversions although blue square will (only 2.5%)

anyway everyone except wozniacki is probably a risky beginner. even kvitova could miss fire one day early & been gone (she did that at the 2011 u.s open dont forget) so yeah wozniacki is a safe bet in that regard but i honestly cant see her winning the whole tournament.

schiavone...well i really believe that the youth lot is now stronger in the wta than the experienced lot & so i`ll be backing somebody young. schiavone is a crafty, determined, experienced tennis player but surely one of the young power hitters will knock her out.

I take it Stosur is an absolute right-off now, she's out in the first round of the sydney.

chooooookkkkkkeeeeeeeeee

she couldnt win an argument with a stuttering chinaman at the moment..

hahaha thats great eeelz. for the record I like LI Na or kvitova, leaning towards kvitova

Tomic to beat Monfils 2-0 today

monfils to beat tomic 2-0. at his best monfils will beat the youngster. in super form too.
berdych rodicks total games under 23.5. if roddicks on its a 2 set match. if hes not its a 2 set match.

Pays $5. Easy money

Australian Open

Mens: I'm all over DJOKAVIC in the multis. in super form. Proven to take on all challengers in his path. Will beat Fed and Nad when he comes to that task. He should make the final and I have him a 70% chance of doing so. That being the case I think he will be around 1.30 when he does make the final. And in every other match against a player outside the top 5, he will be 1.05,1.11, or you might be lucky to get 1.15. Take the 2.30 for him to win it. He'll cruise through the first week and he will only shorten. Looks fit, and is the best player in the world right now.

Womens: Once again, the fav KVITOVA in super form. A little more open in the womens, but lets be realistic instead of looking at those huge prices outside the top 4. Someone in the top 4 will win. Very rarely do we see otherwise in the womens. They are much easier to follow. The 3.40 on offer is ok considering the tightening we will see when she cruises in to the finals. She will be tested by Azarenka and clijsters but she has the game to win it. Im laying williams. Isn't the player she was. Not as hard to compete with anymore. Can be exposed and will be this tournament..at 5's shes way unders. Chuck Bartoli in for a roughie at 35's. She has the capability to push any player including kvitova. Will be tough to beat and will firm in as the tournament goes on.

Massive call horse on the djoka to beat rafa and the fed express..... 2 greats of the game j mac and wilander both had similar years to his yr in 2011 over there careers, and both would of been deemed there following yrs after that success to be somewhat of a failure...it will be interesting to see how he performs....alot will come down to the draw 2mrw, there is many a dangerous floater in the draw. Personally i still like the fed express,the greatest player of all times, if his back is not too bad, and he loves the aussie open like mark edmonson does i think he will put up a good show.....

never put money on the classic! i was there on wednesday for the 4th year in a row and it's just an exhibition, all the players are super relaxed EXCEPT the players that need to prove a point AKA Tomic. watching monfils against Roddick was brilliant and so much fun, but at the end of the day he doesn't really care about the result as long as he gets in some good match practise.
Most shots he played he wasn't even trying. Aussie open and it's a completely different story

that's some wise advice zebesty & i couldnt agree more. none of the top players really care about winning those exhibition events.

My tip of the day? Verdasco to defeat Tomic.... GET ON!!!! Easy money.

what do you mean easy money? Tomic just made a fool of three top10 players in the Kooyong Classic beating Berdych, Monfils & US pedigree Mardy Fish. Verdasco isn't in prime form and Tomic has his home town supporting him every shot of the day.

Tomic looks a prize @ $1.55

We'll see....

This is grand slam tennis, best of five sets - not an exhibition and it's against a very experienced campaigner...if Tomic wins I'll be the first to salute him, but it will be a lot tougher than those odds indicate. Verdasco at 2.50 is great value.

He didn't make a fool of any of those players messin. All three games went to three sets and as zebesty said it's an exhibition match so there only interest is to get a warm up for the open. Agree that tomic will win but he is no value IMO.

Tomic gone already, hope you all loaded up on Verdasco at 2.50....i thought it would be 3-1 Verdasco, but Tomic needed the first set for that. Probably straight sets now.

Well done, scomed66. Love a punter with confidence who nails it.

Thanks Babyrags, not over yet, Verdasco is playing woefully, but should still be too good.

My god what a shocking game of tennis...Tomic looks out on his feet, forfeit coming

Put the mocka on babyrag. Need some nerves not to lay the bet and cut your losses. Could go anyway.

LOL...reckon they have spot fixing in tennis? Verdasco up 2-0, all of a sudden plays like garbage for two sets when the odds for Tomic to win a set got real juicy....

No way Tomic won this match if he comes out on top, the other guy threw it away, sure he's not Indian?

bloody hell, i left home a couple hours ago and he's 2 sets down all over, and i turn it on and its 2 sets a piece!

brucey is going to have a fit if tomic wins this

Are you for real scomed....if our tomic wins its not because verdasco threw it.....the boy can play

tomic's missus isn't too shabby. do it for her tomic!

Ha ha! I've got no idea what's happening here as I'm not watching it, nor am I a tennis fan, but sounds like some eggs are floating about!

Ya right about that zebesty....u wouldn knock her out of bed for fartin

Tomic serving for the match.....massive

yeah this is his last chance to finish it off i reckon. he has to do it now

at least we know he won't do a stosur

got it

Hopefully he doesnt get mothballs in his throat

Our tomic......great win....

i can actually see brucey's boner out the top of rod laver from my house

Ha ha zebesty....he will be knockin the top off it no doubt

Best part of tomic is he doesnt carry on with the antics that hewy does....he seems like a casual bloke who can play tennis with ease

roof open fro a reason!

There will be cream on strawberrys shortly

Haha our tomic. He can play liniby but I'm with scomed. Verdasco obviously didn't throw it but he let up in the 3rd when the game was his. Tomic did a good job just to hang in there and really got given the 3rd and 4th sets. But you have to give him credit he one the last set off his racquet.

Hit yeah your right max....i know he didnt throw it, thou tomic had just as many chances in the 2nd set it could as easily been 3 sets to 1..... Tomic is what aussie tennis needs, someone who can take us back to the glory days...

ashleigh barty will do that! she's only 15 but she's awesome. she will be just awesome in a few football seasons

Well done to Tomic! Should have known better than to back a Spaniard, they are as bad as Frenchmen at tennis (Nadal excepted) on anything but clay. No ticker either, just atrocious....I have a new respect for Tomic after spying his chick, punching above his weight for sure lol.

Haha no doubt about him punching above his weight scomed....look at hewy,he is for sure....he should of married aussie kim, they look like brother and sister......could of made a new movie like deliverance, in fact the only one who isnt punchin above his weight is the fed express....

If rodinova has her head right load up on her to get a set.....or may even cause a upset...she is abit like jamilla groth could be anything.... But u never konw

Over 17.5 games in that match is a special

Whats it paying compaq....

$1.97 with IASbet

Special: Machado at ზ.5 games against ferrer is a superbet. Unless ferrer wins 6-3, 6-2,
6-2...machado should be competitive enough to do better. Plus ferrer is currently not in the super form which the betting agencies think he is. Pays $2.

To win: Gasquet has a very good chance of beating seppi. Must include for multis. May as well take the the game line of 5.5. $1.87

Note from yesterday: Federrer didn't show enough for him to handle djocavick's form, will have to wait a couple of rounds to recognise how ready fedderer is for the other big 3.
Dolgopolov, Berdych and Del Potro took a while to get going and may not be fully fit and rested for this tournament. Nadal looks a treat this summer (he will beat t.haas in 3 sets!!). Isner isn't in very good touch. Mardy Fish looks to be competitive this time in. Wawrinka in dangerously good form.

I wouldn't underestimate ferrer. He made the final against djokovic 2 weeks ago in dubai and went well in aukland. Think he will win comfortably IMO. Wouldn't take too much out of the first round. Federer might still be a little tight from that back injury that made him pull out of the previous tournament.

stosur 5 losing points away from dropping out in the 1st round!

gawn!

She sure is zebesty.....has to be the mental demons!!! That or her and pratty were up all night chewing on the carpet causing that fur to b choked on today

hahaha

she was flossin alright.. Hopeless today!

Jana novotna would be proud.....as would L.hunt

Jana Novotna was the biggest choker since Sergei Bubka.. Our Sam sure has her moments tho, esp in the early rounds. She is about as reliable as the withdrawal method of contraception.

Ha ha.....classic eeelz..aussie kim thought it was reliable,but it put her out of tennis for nearly 2 yrs....

My fav girl kvitova got thru today eeelz....load up on her, only the road train serena can bowl her i believe

Yeah she is the one to beat. Thats a defo.. Kirilenko could roll thru and surprise a few. Thats my tip.

For sure...ya also have to also watch the boney bream grunters in sharapova and azarenka who cruised thru....at least with the women its abit like picking the winner at the bong bong cup after stacking a few

Classic hewy at the moment....likes nothing more then a grinding match, no real fire power to put stebe away

Load up on stebe to win in 5..........juicy

Does anyone here bet big on players paying between $1.01-1.10

our hewie.

scomed66 getting ahead of yourself champs? backing the australian open for the opening 3 rounds is EASY money. if you like to put 10/15 leg multis on and arent afraid of throwing $50/$100 on it, you'd be up a ton right now

18/01/12 A Beck v Federer Match Odds Roger Federer
18/01/12 Azarenka v Dellacqua Match Odds Victoria Azarenka
18/01/12 Barthel v Cetkovska Match Odds Mona Barthel
18/01/12 Benesova v Peng Match Odds Iveta Benesova
18/01/12 Berdych v O Rochus Match Odds Tomas Berdych
18/01/12 Bratchikova v Brianti Match Odds Alberta Brianti
18/01/12 Chang v Jankovic Match Odds Jelena Jankovic
18/01/12 Cipolla v F Lopez Match Odds Feliciano Lopez
18/01/12 Clijsters v Foretz Gacon Match Odds Kim Clijsters
18/01/12 Daniilidou v Goerges Match Odds Julia Goerges
18/01/12 Dolgopolov v Kamke Match Odds Tobias Kamke
18/01/12 Fish v Falla Match Odds Mardy Fish
18/01/12 Haas v Nadal Match Odds Rafael Nadal
18/01/12 Isner v Nalbandian Match Odds John Isner
18/01/12 Karlovic v Berloq Match Odds Carlos Berlocq
18/01/12 Kavcic v Del Potro Match Odds Juan Martin Del Potro
18/01/12 Lacko v Young Match Odds Donald Young
18/01/12 Lu v Serra Match Odds Florent Serra
18/01/12 McHale v Erakovic Match Odds Christina McHale
18/01/12 Medina Garrigues v Govortsova Match Odds Anabel Medina Garrigues
18/01/12 Ormaechea v A Radwanska Match Odds Agnieszka Radwanska
18/01/12 Parmentier v Niculescu Match Odds Monica Niculescu
18/01/12 Querrey v Tomic Match Odds Bernard Tomic
18/01/12 Riba v Kohlschreiber Match Odds Philipp Kohlschreiber
18/01/12 Rogowska v Li Match Odds Na Li
18/01/12 Schiavone v Oprandi Match Odds Francesca Schiavone
18/01/12 Stakhovsky v Anderson Match Odds Kevin Anderson
18/01/12 Tsurenko v Hantuchova Match Odds Daniela Hantuchova
18/01/12 Voskoboeva v Pironkova Match Odds Tsvetana Pironkova
18/01/12 Wawrinka v Baghdatis Match Odds Stanislas Wawrinka
18/01/12 Wozniacki v Tatishvili Match Odds Caroline Wozniacki

Enjoy boys and girls... there is some value in the lesser known men games and some women are looking beauts at $1.60/$1.70 :D :D

Haha don't know how many of those "easy money" multis your going to get up but at least your not taking the guns to win in straight sets. But there's always a couple of big names that go down in the early rounds. Good luck how much was your multi worth?

I only had a nibble yesterday on a $30 5-leg multi that got up... I write down all the multi's I want to put down and had a few others marked with good value that got up but sadly no money on them.

Ofcourse there are upsets but I don't see many happening today... Sportsbet are offering MONEYBACK on Roger Federer for god sake!

The big fish gone. Straight sets. First big name gone

I've got dogopolov on top as well messin

Oue bernie.... Massive game this one 5all 3rd set

Better than Stoltenberg.

won some big cash today thanks to li na breaking a lot off serve, JOHN INSNER's come back!!! and most importantly the 1.00-1.15 favs getting home all day, well, at least for me....

after seeing nadal the other day I had to have something on nadal-kvitova double. looks a treat at $30. MARK MY WORDS tommy haas played outstanding tennis and nadal was brilliant to win in 3 sets. kvitova looks awesome and I still don't like williams/azarenka enough to challenge her come finals. Nadal will make the quaters. from then on he will be tested....but I strongly believe he has the form to win it this year. GET ON HIM NOOWWW

Easy wins for Thursday.........*%chance of winning

1. Kvitova $1.01 (98%)
2. S. Williams $1.01 (95%)
3. Kirilenko $1.22 (94%)
4. Raonic $1.22 (90%)
5. Cibulkova $1.10 (85%)
6. Monfils $1.15 (85%)

All should win. Yes I know why put a 1.01 shot in a multi.....ah well i guess its the thrill of betting and winning on a lot of legs. every cent counts on a ticket.

Oh and roddick to win in 3 sets......SHOE IN!!!!!!!!!!!

What favorites did you get home horse. Hope you weren't on fish. Have to happy with the progress with any of the big 4. Murray dropped a set but he doesn't dominate his opponents like the other three. What's roddick paying for 3 sets.

And how dis you work out their percentage of winning chance?

*did

Madmax60 wrote Today at 8:16am
What favorites did you get home horse. Hope you weren't on fish. Have to happy with the progress with any of the big 4. Murray dropped a set but he doesn't dominate his opponents like the other three.
- I am very happy with the big 4's progress...I would be very surprised if its not a quinella within those 4 with nadal/fed on one side of the draw and djok/murray on the other. I can't have del potro/tsonga/ferrer/wawrinka/dolgopolov/berdych. a) because they haven't been playing convincing tennis...especially delpotr and dolgopolv and b) because most of them can't win majors and history shows this - whats to say they'll be any better now. I think the big 4 are more even than the odds say. The only reason raffa could be paying 8.50 and djockavic 2.20 is because of the easier draw, rafa's knee problems, and more so because djockavic is at his peak in career form where as the others aren't quiet. Murray is becoming a bit more dominating in his matches and you feel a bit safer with money on him now as opposed to 3 years ago. He still finds it difficult in melbourne though and his game isn't strong enough to be a $6 third fav in front of $8.50 raffa who we know can move around the court so quickly and puts so much spin on the ball....raffa is the one to beat for mine. Just watch him in the next round...if you saw him against haas raffa's feet movement to the ball is staggering to watch. He is fit, ready to go and loves the ausi open.

What's roddick paying for 3 sets.
- Roddick pays $2.40 to win in 3 sets. Make sure you get on now. He has been back in from 1.35 to 1.25 in the H2Hd and the set betting will most likely shorten as well.

Madmax60 wrote Today at 8:17am
And how dis you work out their percentage of winning chance?
- Percentage chance of victory based on form, rank, length of matches (e.g 5 sets) played recently, history at ausi open, history against opponent.

Yesterday I had....

$1.80 Isner
$1.14 wozniaki 2-0
$1.12 azarenka 2-0
$1.30 nadal 3-0
$1.85 chang Ƶ.5gmes
$1.05 del potro
$1.05 berdych
$1.14 clijsters 2-0
$1.22 niculescu

Is nadals shoulder that is the main reason for his inflated odds. He and federer came in under injury clouds. If both fit nadal represents terrific value but have to wait till he plays a higher ranked opponent to gauge how well he is going. Djokovic is defiantly the one to beat for mine.

You mentioned that you can't have del potro of dogopolov because a) not playing convincingly enough and b) they cant win majors. Del potro won the us open and had an dodgy wrist in 2010. I think he's getting back to some good form IMO and can challenge. While dogopolov is not playing that well I thinks it's unfair to say he can't win because of history? He only young and raw. Think he will only get better.

With your rating system one criteria is form. Surely that's your subjective opinion. How do you rate forForEfeet can be easy three set matches while there can be difficult 3 setters. You said ferrer was not in good form yet beat tsonga in straight sets to make the final against djokovic. A draw which included federer and nadal. What weighting do you put on these criterias. Because nasal got beat in the quarters last year are you going to mark him down in the quarters this year or does rank and "form" outweigh that.

""
1. Kvitova $1.01 (98%)
2. S. Williams $1.01 (95%)
3. Kirilenko $1.22 (94%)
4. Raonic $1.22 (90%)
5. Cibulkova $1.10 (85%)
6. Monfils $1.15 (85%)
""

You have Kvitova rated at 98% but at 1.01 she has to win 99% of the time to even break even so that doesnt make sense to me. Same as the Williams bet which is even LESS value based on YOUR OWN ratings, yet you still back her. Same also applies to Cibulkova and Monfils.

Am i understanding this right?

Roddick wont beat Lleyton in 3.. No way in the world. He is a pea heart. I'd be surprised if Our Hewie didnt roll him.

Yeah i dont see that happening either, Roddick is not as good as he used to be. His serve while still brilliant is not the weapon it was 5 years ago and his ground shots are just average. Ill be on Lleyton to knock him off tonight probably in a 5 setter

Kvitova in big trouble.

Awesome, i have a big bet on Sharapova to win this tournament so fingers crossed she gets knocked out

Based on your ratings horse only raonic and kirilenko show and value. If you take 1.10 for cibulkova that means she has to win that game 91% of the time yet you have her at 85%. Only raonic and kirilenko show are value according to your rating system.

You are right about putting those 1.01 legs into your multi it makes no sense. Font know how much thrill anyone can get from winning at a 1.01 when outside factors can affect the match e.g injuries. Especially when Williams comes in under a injury cloud.

Say nadal and djokovic played in the final, your rating system would have to have djokovic on top due to his rank,history of aus open,history against opponent and if djokovic gets through the early rounds easily which I think will happen IMO he has to be on top with length of matches and form.

Tonights match between Hewy and Roddick is huge! I think the two of them are pretty evenly matched with Roddick just in front. Watching Roddick at Kooyong last week he wasn't very convincing, if it wasn't for his serve I think he'd be finished.
I still think Roddick will win tonight though, in 5.

cant wait

and Kvitova wins! Azarenka looks strongest to me at the moment from williams

Kvitova massive scare. Would have been riding that game hard horse. At 0-2 down in tge 3rd she was gone. Defianitely didn't justify tge 1.01 quote. Imagine if she was the only leg in your multi to go down at 1.01

U may hav hit the nail on the head eeelz, a rod might have done his pea heart

@COLONEL
Your thinking too much into my ratings. My ratings are not the same as the TAB's. The odds are the tab's and the ratings are my % chance of them actually winning. Do you understand that? It's very clear. I have every doubt in the world about sharapova's form against the top seeds. She can cruise now but come quater finals time she will be pushing to stay in ralleys and doesn't hit nearly enough winners to be winning the tournament against kvitova (who didn't play awfully, she just lost concentration for a bit...watch her when shes on song). Good luck to you...but you'll need it.

@MAD MAX
Once again my ratings are separate to the odds. I believe that was the %chance of each of the favourites winning. You are looking too far into it. I believed that some of the players who were 1.10/1.15 were better than 1.04 favs. So what? 1.04 fav doesn't mean 96% chance of winning. THE ODDS ARE NOT MY ODDS. I DON"T MAKE THEM. THE RATINGS ARE MY THOUGHTS!!!!

@THE REST OF YOU PROFESSIONAL KNOW IT ALLS
I think hewitt is a lot slower, and hasn't looked at all convincing. Thats my opinion. Roddick is playing through pain at the moment so maybe he wont win, thats gambling. Great horses get checked, greyhounds get run off the track. Thats life. But I thought Roddick has enough movement around the court to win. He still won the first set so get off your high horses about hewitt because he ain't going far this tournament....

He was always gonna get checked in this match. Doesnt have the will power to beat the likes of Hewitt. He seems to be moving alright now, but he will crumble. No doubt.

No offense but you sound like a real jackass on first impressions :P

You make zero sense at all. You say the ratings are your % chance of winning?? Well guess what that can be broken down in to a decimal! and when done so it clearly shows that you are taking gross unders on what you actually rate an individual. Its not rocket science.

Dont take it too serious horse....hewitt isnt goin any where fast in this aussie open thats for sure and either is the a rod if he wins.....they are what i commonly term in all aspects of life be it sport, age, occupation as had its.......

Also lol no one was on their high horses about Hewitt :D

People just had different opinions on it, no need to take that as an attack on what you think

yeah. Jeeez Horse. Jeeeeeeez.

Are u still watchin horse...arod is hangin in there.....he is doin it for jessica simpson.....

Sook. Pea Heart. Typical.

Ha ha eeelz....i think jess simpson just ate his burger....typical alright...

Nice to see him give a typical whinge to the ump before he retired ;)

I reckon hewy might b a sneaky chance against bid milos

I wont b taking him in straight sets thats for sure.....get on tomic in straight sets 2mrw nite thats my tip, and one green bottle at ipswich as well for muscle munce

colonel i am not gonna to bother talking to you. if calling me a "jackass" is what your hear to tell us all about on the aussie open page then good luck to the others in dealing with your nonsense I mean jesus.... I write up a ratings guide for viewers, go to an effort to display some opinion and you tell me I make no sense......are you thick in the head??? or are you that stuck in to gambling that you note down every word people write and come up with an argument....??? I just don't get you as well...all youve told me is how my system of ratings doesn't work...well guess what...wheres your system? wheres your time and effort?....all you do is talk nonsense. im out of this forum. Go Rafa.

Thats a lot of words for someone not talking to me ;)

If you cant take critisism and talk logically without arcing up about people disagreeing with you then you have a long road ahead.

If you want to logically explain your "ratings" then i am fine with that but just relax a bit. If you have a person rated as a 95% chance of winning then when broken down into odds that equates to $1.05 for your selection or $20 for the other player. Now the way you find value in your ratings is to line up what you believe to be the correct odds with the odds available to back them at. So if the odds of player 1 are $1.02 then you wouldnt bet as you would need to rate them a 98% chance of winning for that to even be the correct price, at 95% that is unders and a no bet. However if that meant player B was paying $40 to win the match then that means you are getting better odds than the 5% chance you gave them of winning so is good value on YOUR ratings.

Understand what i am saying?

No one was saying your ratings dont work, well i wasn't anyway. What i am questioning is your bets you are placing after using them

I'd take the colonels advice horse. Horse said "1.04 fav doesn't mean 96% chance of winning". That's exactly what taking 1.04 odds means. If you think it won't win 96 times out of a 100 it means it's under the odds and you will lose money. If you take 2.00 it means you think that selection will win 50% of the time. What the colonels saying is if YOUR rating system shows Serena Williams at 95% chance of winning your need odds of 1.05 take make a profit. Sure you might win that game at 1.01 but if you continually take under the odds you will go broke.

Our bernie

i kno nuthing about tennis lol...how many wins away is he from the final?

Into the 4th round now. Then the quarters,semis. And then final. Has to player federer in the fourth round. Not being unpatriotic but I hope the general public bets big on tomic because I'm gunna load up of the fed express.

*play

ha cheers.

Dont argue with the Colonel or when you least expect it he'll pop up behind you and beat your head in with a candlestick or lead piping.

Dont go in the conservatory ;)

Too late. I stuck my head in and saw Mrs. White polishing the Professor's plums.

Just letting you guys know the Tomic and Del Potro matches of a couple days ago havent been resulted here yet

AUS Wom Rd4 Wozniacki-Jankovic 22/01 - Head to Head...tonight...start 9.15pm

HEAD TO HEAD played 7 times, jank 4wins , wozi 3 wins ....hard court, jankovic 3 wins , wozniacki 1 win ....

odds......wozniaki $1.40 , jankovic $2.80

Reckon its going to be a 3 setter as evenly matched...
WOZNIACKI Caroline 2-1 $4.15
JANKOVIC Jelena 2-1 $5.75

back them both for less risk to gain 100% or 150 % profit ......

Serena Williams knocked out in straight sets!

Really opens the draw up for Sharapova now ;)

Colonel/ Madmax, the 6-leg all-up that Horse suggested was indeed value according to his ratings. The all-up had a fixed price of $1.92 (52%), and was assessed by him at 56.9%. The real question you raise is whether undervalue components of the all-up should be included. This, in turn, is a problem with ratings themselves - even if they are mathematically accurate (ie your $2 assessments with 50% of the time) this does not ensure that you beat the market by taking overlays. To explain, let's say you have a set of 10 x $2 assessments - 4 of them win at $1.95, 1 wins at $3, and 5 lose at odds exceeding $2 - by taking overlays, you will have had 6 bets for 1 winner at a loss of 3 units. However, by betting all 10 at level stakes you would win 0.8 units or 8% on turnover. ie the rigid insistance on 'overlays' may be counterproductive. The key is to keep proper records and understand how your assessments respond to the markets - ie how do I profit from my assessments? On the basis of good record-keeping, it may be that your best play is to accept some (or even all) under-assessed bets.

Its irrelevant whether he was including them in a multi or not. The more legs you add that are bad value individually just multiplies in a multi. He may have included a selection that was $1.50 that he rated 90%, that by itself would be very good value but the more selections that are "under the odds" that you add to the multi then your value decreses.

Its 2am so im pretty sure that didnt sound very articulate :P But im sure the main points i was raising are in there some where lol

Colonel, I think your analysis would be fine if the odds were in relation to a coin toss or a roulette wheel, where the assessment is obvious and static - if someone continues to offer you $2.2 about heads on a coin toss, of course you will win; if you continue to take $1.8 about it, of course you will lose. With sporting events, however, there is no such certainty of assessment. What you are left with, in the sporting contest, is a series of records of your past assessments (so that you can say "when I assess something as a $2 chance that thing occurs 50% of the time"). This, however, cannot give you any confidence that any single assessment is spot on. All that it means is that over a sample of statistical significance, these types of thing should occur 50% of the time. As such, you need to keep records and analyse how your assessments interact with the betting market. As per my previous example, it is possible to be mathematically accurate in your assessment ($2 chances win 50% of the time) yet lose badly by taking "overlays". This is because the 50% of winners may mainly be made up of "underlays", while the "overlays" may mainly be losers. For this reason, depending on the historical profile of your assessments and their relation to market, the best course may be to back all selections, or only overlays, or only underlays. Accordingly, it is a mistake to apply "coin-toss" logic to a sporting assessment.
An all-up bet converts a series of individual bets into a single bet, thereby increasing both risk and return. Horse might have said, in answer to you initial question, that his assessments are profitable (individually) where he backs all selections assessed above 85%, regardless of their market price (or within certain perameters). If that were the case, then his all-up (including the supposed underlays) may be a perfectly proper way of maximising his return.

tell u what, at the value 4.25 for Federer is juicy. if liked Jokovic a long way out,but that appeals. DAL POTRO the smokie

just read back over VICES comments on the COLONEL. gigglin lol. mrs white polishin profs plums bahahhaa

Djokovic Novak 1.90
Federer Roger 4.25
Murray Andy 5.50
Nadal Rafael 6.50
Del-Potro Juan Martin 21.00
Berdych Tomas 34.00
Ferrer David 51.00
Nishikori Kei 81.00

Kvitova Petra 2.75
Azarenka Victoria 3.50
Sharapova Maria 5.25
Clijsters Kim 7.50
Wozniacki Caroline 9.00
Radwanska Agnieszka 15.00
Makarova Ekaterina 23.00
Errani Sara 81.00

FEDERER/CLIJSTERS ?

that is an awful lot of sentiment going in that there double goldenwing

oh some of that $15 about radwanska looks nice :-) but who can honestly take their money or eyes off of kvitova ?

Filante no one is claiming to be able to perfectly rate a sporting event, but thats the way you find what YOU consider to be value, and thus how you come up with YOUR bets.

Backing selections that you have rated as under the odds will send you broke very quick if your a half decent rater

Great debating Colonel & Filante. Love it!

You may not be able to perfectly rate a sporting event but speak only for yourself.
I have perfectly rated the Gloucestershire Cheese Rolling festival for the past 3 years running by predicting that a bunch of half pissed yobs and a handful of unco vaginas would successfully iron themselves out on a steep ass hill.

There is a bit to be honest STREET. Roger looks sharp tho & kym is in warrior mode. kvitova is the obvious danger with Jok. But a dabble all up is worth a splash.

I cant believe you didnt give us all the hot tip on that Vice.

my betting formula had yob's at only a 96% chance of winning. Damn

GO KIM ! . Love you baby

Colonel, this will be my last comment on the subject - with tennis, the outcome is binary (ie either A wins or B wins) and the market (for example on Betfair) is fair (almost exactly 100%). If you do your assessments, back the overlays, and win, then fine - you're a winner. If, however, you do you assessments, back the overlays and lose then the logical conclusion is that you would have won by laying the overlays, or backing the underlays.

So what you are saying is if your ratings are good then fine but if your ratings are poor then back against who you think will win? Thats what it appears you are saying

Sharapova knocks out Kvitova in the Semi Final :D

Now my Sharapova bet has really opened up! lol, im now considering how much to lay off if i do decide to lay any off :) I really think she will beat Azarenka so dont want to lose all my potential profit ;)

Always Lay Off Colonel. It's all about the odds!

Azarenko $1.79 - 55% Chance of winning

Sharapova $2.24 - 45% Chance of winning

HEAD TO HEAD RECORD

V. Azarenka Vs M. Sharapova
Win 3 3
Loss 3 3

2 All on Hard Courts

Looks very evenly matched and I'd say that there's definitely a little value in Sharapova's Price.

Still If I was in your Posi I would lay for at least a 25% Profit if Azarenko wins. GL with watever you decide to do.

It's all about the profit, Colonel. You should definitely take under your assessment Azareka (or lay the Sharapova overs) so as to lock in a guaranteed profit....even more so if your assessments are no good.

$2 Djokovic seems awesome value to me and a price I could not hol back on.
Had 2k on him to win the match at that price.

Took Murray @ $3 midway through the second set. Based on what I just saw, he should be $1.04 because Novak is battling

Murray is a pretender if you ask me!

Murray up a break! Come on Murray consolidate it now!

Damn it Murray

Iv'e layed off @ $1.12 just in case - Thankyou!

Murray again stumbles!#Moneymaker!

it amazes me that they continue to talk about a "big 4" in mens tennis when Andy Murray has never won a major and appears to be getting further away. Not being able to beat a half fit Joker tonight was pretty damning. As for me, I'll certainly be laying off my Joker bet from the start of the tournament.

Lol "half fit Joker" :P That guy always has something wrong when he is losing *rolls eyes*. All through his career he has done that, it was funny how towards the end of the match he was fine when he was winning :D

Ill be having a good bet on Nadal at the $2.20!

Imagine how good he will be when he is fully fit then

i agree djokavic is a staller when he starts losing, fake injuries evrytime. Nadal should beat him fair and square.

He was fully fit last night and Murray almost knocked him off. Get on Nadal

I backed Joker @ $2.65 before the tournament and I will be laying off on Nadal @ $2.15 and I can't lose. I will probably stake it to win more if Nadal wins on what i've seen from Joker in the last two games

joker is a joke, absolute sook on the court. and he bounces that ball so much to stall....FAARRRKKK

Ok i was going to lay some off but i think the bookies have it totally wrong so im not going to throw money away on what i think is gross unders about Azarenka.

Going to just let the lot ride and hope Sharapova can cap off an awesome run :)

Pretty sure you are wishing you laid of now

Amazing match, The Joker continues his dominance over the tennis world. Had everything against him and still was able to deliver under pressure

Yeah, gotta give it to him. I love the mental aspect of this top 4, Nadal can't beat Djoko AT ALL, Federer can't beat Nadal in a grand slam AT ALL, Murray can't beat any of them AT ALL, lol. As funny as it sounds, I got the feeling that Fed would have rather played Djoko in the semi and he seems to be the only player that can still beat Novak (See French open and the US open that should have been a win).

epic battle, got NADAL @ $5 after the 3rd set,as i was thinking JOKO would feel the effects of the MURRAY match. gave it a shake. #1 was too good in the end.