Aami Victoria Derby (Flemington R6)

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well you would have to say manawanui is was ahead of this lot, but the distance is the ultimate query.
therefore im tipping Manawanui to win, if he doesn't it'll be sangster.

agree zebesty

Don't really know how people can pot Manawanui, what on earth has he done wrong?

Manawanui definately has the class edge on this field and eventhough he didn't beat much last week he did show that he can settle. I think he'll look the winner at some stage but I just have this niggling doubt at the distance. 2000m is one thing....2500m is another whole kettle of fish. I see him in front with 100 to go and Niagara running him down. Induna looked good at Geelong but didn't really beat much and had the race set up for it to swoop. I wonder what Niagara would have done to that field?

100% agree with andornicus. NIAGRA is my best bet of the day at 8s. Cannot believe it is that price. Everyone who is putting manawanui in is in for a close finish. THIS RACE WILL BE CLOSE!!!! AND THE 3 HORSES BEHIND MANAWANUI ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER VALUEEEE!!!!!

Perfect Punch and Zabeelionaire will go close to winning this ..Manawanui comes from a line that has more speededsters in the breeding and does not show a staying potential strong enough for this distance.... up to 2000m is about their potential and for me its a lay all day bet and a bookies toy.'

i think we can agree manawanui will finish top 3. but i really like niagra and induna to run it down early in the straight.

Does anyone give RAPIDUS #15 a shot, by all means his class doesnt stack up towards the favourties though on his breeding he is right up there with manawanui. Broodmare sire of the G1 winning stayers Guyno, Giovana, Amalfi, Littorio ad Jimmy Choux.

'Trained by the master Bart Cummings and while untried at anything past a mile his pedigree reeks of Derby. His sire Darci Brahma has Ethereal and Grand Echezeaux figuring on his page while the dam Rivertaine is related to staying stakes winners Arletty, Sixty Seconds, Spottswoode, Legs, Guyno and Firetaine. Just so you don't forget, he's trained by Bart Cummings. He won his last start, albeit a Gosford maiden over 1600 metres, but he charged home. Two runs prior to that, when first-up, he was 5-1/2 lengths from Niagara and Mental at Newcastle but entering the straight he was at least that behind them. Then digging even deeper he did finish fourth back in June beaten 1-3/4 lengths by Galah and Queenian, so his form does have a bit of depth.'

Like MANAWANUI, INDUNA could be the danger

INDUNA
Flemington Race 6 No 7 at 3:00
Aami Victoria Derby - Open (2500m)
Your comment: Easy win SYD 6/10/11 mid field pulled early jockey let go went away to win easy. Top win MELB 19/10/11 got caught wide early pulled back came around on corner sprinted away in straight

MANAWANUI
Flemington Race 6 No 1 at 3:00
Aami Victoria Derby - Open (2500m)
Your comment: Nice win SYD 7/5/11 behind leaders pulled out went away to win well. Easy win SYD 20/8/11 back in field pulled out wide sprinted away to win easy. Top win SYD 10/9/11 got to front kicked away in straight with smart ride to hold on. Easy win like a track gallop SYD 24/9/11. Could be looking for further now kept coming to line strong MELB 8/10/11. settled well went back came around them went away for easy win MELB 22/10/11

NIAGARA
Flemington Race 6 No 10 at 3:00
Aami Victoria Derby - Open (2500m)
Your comment: Unlucky MELB 15/10/11 was stuck on fence got pushed back got out when all over

i just like the GEELONG CLASSIC form and thought he was the horse who was held up at vital stages and flashed home looking for further...........i have been waiting for MANAWANUI to drift and he has considerably so I reckon theres not much confidence around that he will stay the 2500m.......and I have the speed map saying that INDUNA will drop back midfield and make a long sustained run with EAGLE COMMAND getting the right tag behind it into the race......just going for a bit of value

manawanui wont run a place its a sprinter.... they pushed it to run a mile it had a picnic last start now on a bog track over 2500m at flemington.... it will be like a 3000m race with the bog track. they will kill him... manawanui could be in the top 4 sprinters in the country..... if this horse does not come back i will blame the trainer...... if he wins i will drop my hat.... he will be the next phar lap.....

update on twitter from a racing jour no - "flemington has had 7mm of rain as of 9.43 - expect a dead 4 tomorrow" make of that what u like

Thanks for the weather updates Arma. Can you give a few more tomorrow morning as well? Appreciated.

no worries mate will try and do... but there is not much more around apparently so pretty sure u can bank on a dead 4 dead 5 at worst

Agree with your thoughts Duffman12. Bart doesn't take them to Melbourne for nothing. He may be the rebel raider of this field. I Will have him in the multiples for sure. I give Sangster a big chance and will be on him to win. Also hard to knock Manawanui. His class will carry him a long way.

Pedigree Report Card from Racenet Website if anyone's interested. Handy read i thought.

http://www.racenet.com.au/news/745/74563.asp

INDUNA very unlucky i think..

i'm a huge fan of manawanui, just as i'm bound to be a huge fan of whatever the classy three year old of next spring is but please, please trainers take heed of octagonal, sky heights, shogun lodge, tie the knot, savabeel, whobe & now manawanui's defeats...classy three year old dont win the vrc derby so please save your horse the heartbreak & next year go to the cox plate or the mackinnon stakes instead.

manawanui is a sprinter might go 1400m thats about it..... the stupid trainer could of fuuucked up a good horse...