150th Melbourne Cup 2010

The 150th Melbourne Cup is posied to be a huge event this year.

The great challange of picking out the Cup winner at big odds begins.

We are know seeing some of the likely overseas nominators perform.

Profound Beauty - D Weld - recenetly won in Ireland beating Age of Aquarius.
Rite of Passage - D Weld - won the Ascot Gold Cup last night also beating Age of Aquarius. Is now amonght the Antepost favs for Cup, Weld has said it is his target this year.
Purple Moon - L Cumani - 3rd in the Ascot Gold Cup, has indicated is interested in coming back for the Cup.

out of those 3 PROFOUND BEAUTY is by far the best chance however i still dont think she is good enough to win the cup.............any news on the japanese because if they are in i will load up!

Gees, I'm hoping Rundle is heading towards the cup, looks a very promising stayer.

I got a few to watch, Rock Classic from Bart's stabele. The Japan Horse Craig Williams rode that is now qualified if they make it Jaguar Mail

Also Cox Plate as soon as the markets open take the odds on KUDAKULARI this will go very close, I have been told it is better than SO YOU THINK

I Think Keyora from NZ is a chance. He ran an enormous race in the QLD Derby and I think with time he will be a good stayer. Faint Perfume has to be a chance, as does horses like Linton, Shoot Out, Dariana and Jessicabeel

what about the grey??? efficent!! if he comes back

Whipsaw.

Huge effort winning a listed open staying race at it's sixth career start.

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/Racing/horse.aspx?horse_code=862017

Efficient for mine if they can get him fit, was the best horse in Australia when he won the Turnbull last year and had the cup at his mercy I thought. Hope they can get him up for one last Spring campaign. If the Japanese come (which is highly unlikely) they have a couple of horses who could be very hard to beat but at this stage I wouldn't be putting my money anywhere near them as I can't see them being here. Lorne Dancer is one I will be keeping my eye on though.

I'll throw up Shocking again, was dominant last year after travelling 3 - 4 wide the trip. Will obviously get more weight however a sweeter run in transit will offset that and you know he's a certain starter. The others at this stage for me include Faint Perfume, Shoot Out, Jessicabeel, Dariana. The best from Japan is Oken Bruce Lee and the best from England and Ireland appears to be Profound Beauty again. Was close up in Viewed's Cup win. The others who could improve into calculations include Count Encosta, Alandi (Irish St Leger winner now with Lloyd Williams), Monaco Consul & Efficient and Rebel Raider (if they can get them back injury free)

Jezzabeel. dont waiste your time looking for something to beat it

You're 12 years too late podo..............:-)

Profound Beauty goes around tonight at the Curragh. Its a short price fav. Lets see how it goes

Profound Beauty Finished 2nd Last night, It had every chance to pick up the winner, but could not sprint past it. They beat the rest of the field easily, but you would have like to see Profund Beauty pick up and get over the line in front.

Ha Ha jessicabeel thanks tt, thats twice ive been pulled up for that

Tactic the horse tha beat Profound Beauty last night will be an entry for the Melbourne Cup. The start previous Tactic won by 15L and won incredibly easy.

Good to see Gorky Park amongst the nominations at Caulfield this Saturday. It was my highest rated Ramsden Stakes winner in years when it won that race in '08. Probably not going to be a threat for the Cup this year, but if it has come back in anything approacing his best form he is worth considering in some of the lead up races.

Shoot Out starts his campaign on Saturday. Will be very interesting to see if he holds out to make the Cup.

Tony Noonan has his high class import Buccelatti in Australia and has been up in Queensland for a while spelling. This is a very good galloper who I will be interested in how it performs early.

This Thursday the Goodwood Cup is run with quite a few potential Cup horses. Tactic, Kite Wood, Whispering Gallery, Theology, Purple Moon to name a few. Pop Rock(JPN)may run also but not a likely Cup contender again.

Hi ta be careful of those English margins they don`t try awful hard over there if they know they are beaten, and the Ascot Gold cup is a race that appears to flatten potential Cup runners so i wouldn`t get carried away with that form. The main challenger from Europe that i have seen is Dermot Welds two enterants. When picking your Cup winner remember two things people :
1 - 5yo`s seem to have a great winning strikerate.
2 - There are many UK stayers racing in Australia already that are acclimatised to Australian conditions and history shows that these horses tend to fire in their 2nd & 3rd Australian preperations. Lloyd williams has a good half dozen that have only had 1 Australian run (these are good quality ones placed in Derby`s and the like) as do the Freedman`s, Hayes, Chris Waller and others. A majority of this years field will be European Raiders and expat Europeans racing here in Australia.

If the trend continues with the winner coming through the Brisbane winter carnival then Dariana has to be one of the better pre post bets.

What i love about these english horses is they add so much more value into the race............they are put up close to favorites.........are backed in even further when the average joe punter sees they have won there past 3 starts by an average of 15 lengths and then our proven stayers drift.........In saying that i never leave them out of my multiples!

The Jag is on its way load up (Jaguar Mail)

I think Dariana, Jessicabeel and Profound Beauty. I have backed Efficient the last 3 years in early betting but he is getting a little to old and has proved he can get injuries.

The JAP horses are now coming right into play they have been cleared. We know how tough they are. Creaig Williams seems keen to stick them

253 Nominations for the Cup.
The search for the winner begins

bart has a sneaky one called bright night......

TAB sportsbet opening market 329%. Be wary punters.
Pathetic what they are offering

All their pre-post markets are a joke Ta... shop elsewhere people.

Pollys Mark. - David Hayes has entered this horse.
its trained in the uk by Clive Cox.
Does anyone know why Hayes has entered it?

Imposing has been purchased to race in Australia and has entered quarantine.
Not sure who has purchased it.
Quite a few Cup hopefuls go round this weekend. Will be interesting to see how Alcopop and Rebel Raider go in Adelaide.

lets get our early thoughts out there.
1st thing i wish to share, is this spring will be run on slow to heavy tracks.
my top pick at this very early stage is Monaco Consul, a winner at flemington 2500m, a winner on the heavy, a fair auturm with a 1.6L third behind Shoot Out in the AJC derby. a certain starter if fit and i've taken some of the 48s on offer.
another horse of interest this year with wet tracks in mind is C'est La Guerre beaten 4.75L in last years cup ,should get about a 5-6kg turn around on last years winner and a track to suit, a good chance to get a run if fit and about 54kg on his back, i've had a nibble at 120s
the last one i've had a nibble at 1000s is a horse that's run 2x2nd over 3200m at her only two go's, she's should be qualified and get in with 49.5 to 51kg on her back, dosen't mind a wet track ,thier's a far chance that if fit she could get a run and the 1000s will look real good .by the way the horses name is Divine Rebel, if you hadn't work it out already.

Jaguar Mail unlikely to come.
Leica Larrikan also now unlikely. i hope they change there mind!

I like Faint Perfume , Jessicabeel and for a speculator..... Mourdre - looks like a horse going places

Rundle

I'm hearing ya Steels. Rundle!

Rebel Raider they have just backed in Futures

They backed Rebel Raider in both Cups to take out $400k according to an article I read this morning Trackawinner. Healthy go!

I took a few doubles yesterday around the following horses... (majority through Alcopop CC)
Melb Cup - Rebel Raider $81, Meiner Keitz $17, Rundle $41, Jaguar Mail $26, Meisho Dontaku, Tokai Trick (bracing for the Jap invasion)
Caluf Cup - Alcopop $34, Linton $26, Moudre $26, Work the Room $81
Cox Plate - More Joyous $41

PS. I've got Alcopop into Rebel Raider to win $50K!

looks like the mails good. was watching Rebel Raider's race and as they came around the corner ,i thought he's going to win this. so i went strait to betfair and snapped up some of the 50s on offer .within 60sec of the win, he was into 25s .happy days for Horsemiller and me.

I got 65/1 on Betfair Rebel Raider I'm a little happy

I've got Faint Perfume, Dariana and Jessicabeel too!!

Xaieta should've beaten Rebel Raider today, couldn't get clear running. Follow it up.

You can probably forget about Rebel Raider now until he gets out to 2400m plus later on. I had a big go at him for the Melbourne Cup at $41 last year, before he was struck down by injury. For those who missed his Derby win in 2008, this is a serious horse at his right trip. $81 is massive overs now that we know he's come back well Surround, but I wouldn't be backing him for a few runs now...

Still an unknown in open company against anything outside of S.A

He won the Vic Derby in emphatic fashion defeating Whobegotyou in 2008 Oddmutler, so you want to retract that statement. If he can stay sound, going on his Vic Derby win, the 3200m will be ideal. His victory was very similiar to the way Efficient trounced them in the same race in 2006, and we all saw what he followed up with...

The Derby is restricted company still, but it's about as good as it gets for "restricted" racing

Haha, why retract it? He is still unknown against the best open class runners, only stating a fact there.

Fair enough... missed the open company line.

AKZAR (IRE) is believed to be under offer to Australian buyer.
Last start finished 2nd to Profound Beauty.
Could this young horse perform similar to Mahler a few years back?
Looks a promising horse to perform so well at only its 3rd start last time.

REBEL RAIDER has to looks a stayer to me, and one who runs the Melbourne/Adelaide way of going.
You must remember the Cup is a handicap! so I wouldnt be worried about horses not tested in open company.
How was Shocking against open class company last year...............

i believe the proper odds of rebel raider is probs about 30's........definitely getting value about a horse you know will get the 2 miles strongly

Bauer, this bugger owes my big time. His small nose cost me $10 FLATS

MightandPower..... I think his very small nose cost alot of us!!

Muffy, I'm still crying and then to see that photo finish that PP put in the Melbourne Cup thread kills me everytime.

havent seen this prep yet, but i really like valdemore, looks like futher the better suits

For those that haven't seen yet - we have the Melbourne Cup odds comparison online already. You can get some nice big healthy odds early on.

Take a look here: http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/melbourne-cup-odds/
Luc

landlocked for me. great win first up and has come back great. $501 with uni tab . has been backed with others and alot shorter.

I have had a few small bets on Vigor and Brightnight , but nothing major. Every year i bet "all-in" my horses never seem to make it to the starting gate, so not betting up big this year on the Cup. Always fun to have a little something on the early markets though, and follow your horse(s) through their prepaation.

Some great runs by many cups hopes this weekend.
Drunken Sailor won in the UK.
Moudre great win
Shoot Out ran on very well
So You Think super win
Precedence - great run for 2nd.
Many more good runs.

Moudre looking very exciting like Alcopop last year

I know Faint Perfume is the current favorite for the cup but she sounds like she is exactly the type of horse you need to win it . She will go to sleep and then explode when you want her too and she will be perfectly trained.

Bart will train the winner.... hardest thing is picking which one of Bart's

Maybe John O'Shea will train the winner this year ... What do you all think of Zabrasive and Jessicabeel?

It's a long hard road to the cup Azure but I liked the way Zabrasive came back the other day, thought it worked home okay and obviously wants it A LOT longer so I'll definitely be keeping an eye on him. Jessicabeel I'm not so sure about at this stage, need to see it show a bit more improvement, know it will get the distance though which is half the battle.

I cannot possibly see Jessicabeel winning the cup. Good luck if you like it but.
I do not think its up to it.

Well it is interesting as Jessicabeel has been backed in a few points the last 24 hours. Somone has some confidence.

Most Melbourne Cup favorites start at around $5 or $6 so its not much value taking $10 or so when you don't even know if they are going to run. I hope that Faint Perfume keeps drifting in the market and I might back her prior to the Caulfield Cup.

AzureBell, dont be fooled by the TAB or corp Antepost markets. They are at massive margins.
When a few drop off, they will shorten others. That is the only reason it would have shortened.
I have layed Jessicabeel.
but like I said Good Luck if your on it.
If it makes the field, I would be very suprised if it started under $20

yeh it seems that the sydney cup form is generally 5-10 lengths short of where you need to be to win a melbourne cup. However I guess horses like JESSICABEEL are open to improvement and therefore you have to include her somewhere in the mix.

Bart has some great melb cup chances coming on this year. I really like the looks of BRIGHTNIGHT and I think he can progress onto bigger and better prospects..........looks like the kind of horse that will really relish the 3200m

I think that if rebel raider can make it to the cup it looks a great chance. It can actually pull away from horses in the straight and is a very good bet with lindop aboard. But it is a long way to tipperrary..

Weights out now
Alandi and Efficient 58kgs
Shocking 57kg

Precedence for me, has alot of untaped ability and was on track for the melbourne cup last year before being injured and is a cummings horse will see the distance and has a great pedigree!!!

Could be proven wrong but from what I saw in the Autumn I don't think Precedence will run out a strong enough 3200m to win the Cup.

I agree had Precedence last year horse who gets injury suspect at distance

I'm happy at moment have Faint Perfune,So you think,Dariana,Rebel Raider and Jessicabeel all overs on Betfair so if I want I can lay all back but with overs I'm happy

56kg So You Think, 55.5kg Rebel Raider...ouch!

So You Think looks a better cox plate prospect than a melb cup.he's bigger n stronger and will get a comfortable 4yo weight of about 54 ish.

57.5kg Cox Plate goldewing. I agree better chance Cox Plate, than Melbourne Cup.

hmm 57.5,bit of a concern,but i wont be doin a 180.cheers mate

Rebel raider

Agree with ya demonick, its first up run was a cracker, so looks injury free, goes well Flemington, get the distance with ease, and can sprint too. I'm hoping the odds drift out a bit though as is 16s on TAB but sure u can get better than that elsewhere.
Other chances I think are Faint Perfume, would take her any day of the week over Dariana and not sure if Purple Moon will be here but is nom'd so give that a big chance also. Can't wait!

I tried to do a fixed bet all up of today,MD stakes into caulfield and melb cup on rebel raider but unitab would not take it....I thought $10 into 40k was a good investment!!

Another add on Rebel Raider. Read before that it was backed to win half a million in the cups before it ran first up in Adelaide. Was not me, but someone knew something.

I did mention ealrier in this thread, you can forget about Rebel Raider until later on now... He may not have handled the ground today, but regardless, i don't think he's a winining chance again until he gets to 2400m plus. Let his odds get out, then crunch him for the Melbourne Cup (as i did for Efficient in 2007).

Interesting hearing the handicappers thoughts of So You Think. Sounds like if he wins the Cox Plate and runs in the cup he gets in light with 56kgs. Very keen to see him in the Yalumba over 1800m. If he wins that running away from them then cox plate and cup is at his mercy. He would be a similar cup prospect as Saintly - Sit handy, peel out around the turn - let him loose at the 200m and wave them good bye!

Illustrius Blue has been purchased by Aussies.
Its assured of a run, so baring injury looks a good spec if you can get some good odds on it.

A little birdy told me that Illustrious Blue may be affiliated with this website in some small way shortly ! He looks a good sort and defeated Purple Moon in The Goodwood Cup July 2010. He returned a very high rating by my rating methods and must be afforded a great chance in the race.

AKZAR is now confirmed going to Mt Macedon to join Willaims team. 1000 was on offer on this last week. Will see if it makes it to the race.

Yeah just read that... GUTTED!

moudre ticking along quite nicely backed him to win both cups, maybe a little ambitious but u got to be in it to win it. More joyous all over em in cox plate, i backed a roughie ew for epsom last week dux belorum untapped potential about this one.

Akzar will need to win something to get in. I got 500 when I heard it was under offer when I posted a few weeks ago, but only half as good as 1000.

San Frontiers was a very good win in the Irish St Ledger. Came with a very good sprint finish.

geez they falling over already, moatize as well as rebel raider gone for the spring.........
still think valdemore is the one this year

Does anyone one have any inside mail on Hume?? I see it is in the market but is yet to have a return run this season.

Hume is not in the running. Didnt pay up.

Moatize is now out of contention

anyone no of a horse called BOOMING and if its still in contention??

yeah i was looking for hume.. his second to shocking last year on the saturday before the cup was a huge run.. obviously shocking has come on in leaps in bounds since then.. is hume nommd for any of the cups?? actually anyone know whats happend to him???

So You Think.
Will it run? BIG Question.

Its only had 2 starts so far, 1 more start before Cox Plate most likely. Then Cup at 5th run in.
Every possiblity. If he keeps winning and goes in, we could have the shortest priced favourite in years.

Does anyone know much about some of the overseas runners this year? Mr Medici? San Frontieres? Americain?

Alcopop seems to be a forgotten horse this spring. Has his third run in on Friday night at Mooney Valley and is nominated for two races. A 1600m handicap and the JRA Cup over 2000m. He would need to show something this time to be a force this Spring I would think. I thought he was a bit underdone last year and with that experience for both horse and trainer, if he can come right, may be the smokie.

At this stage I beleive the JRA Cup is where he is heading.. the horse is fit and don,t leave out of your multis or your doubles

Sans frontieres looks to be a very good horse and apparently has the turn of foot to win the MC. It can handle any track conditions, as shown by its win last start against profound beauty (I think) when it was very uncomfortable in the going but still picked up very well when it needed to. The 57kg is a lot though. I like something like Rundle, maybe Moudre if it can do the distance ( a big unknown). Dariana will be there with that quick turn of foot. But Rundle's run when it won over 2500m at Flemington was a very good pointer for the cup.

Rundle has a bisk ask to make the field. Currently unders in antepost I feel. Has to win a good race to get in. Came 4th today at Sandown, long way from there.

There are a few internationals arriving the Saturday. Stanstill, Drunken Sailor(i think), bacque adora.
San Frontiers has won 3 good races in a row in UK and Ireland. It was a very good win to beat Profound Beauty in the St Ledger.
There is still some big prices available on horses if they can qualify.

Some very good runs by Shocking and Metal Bender on the weekend.
Herclulian Price turns if form around and produces a huge run to win very easily, get 2kg penalty.

Profound Beauty confirmed. How long till the Plunge on it.. can be to far off once it gets on the plane

yeah SO YOU THINK should be fave for the MELB CUP... seems to have more talent than any of BARTS other winners and with his polish you would be brave to think it wont see the 3200m out... thought SHOOT OUT turned in a brilliant trail for the CUP once i overcame my dissapointment... could be between the two star 4 yr olds this year but that would be too much to expect wouldnt it??

Bart may train the trifecta???

Guys itstime for a reality check. So You Thinks wins the Yalumba Sat (Whobe had his chance 1st up), then wins the Cox Plate. If Barts starts it in the Melb Cup it will be because it WILL win not that it MIGHT win. Barts other prime chances, Faint Perfume and Precedence will be ready to run the races of their lives on the first Tuesday at Flemington no matter what they do in the Caulfield Cup.
Shocking is the one for the Caulfield Cup, as you really cannot fault his form this time in and Caulfield form is actually ok BUT could he go close in the MC with a 1-2 kg penalty?
Can risk the overseas plodders and lopers as they are place chances at best. Any thoughts disagree/agree?

1000/1 - odds offered CBPC Triple Stipe

SOYOUTHINK could be anything.....when barts confident then im confident.......i think he is probably most vulnerable this weekend as its such a small field and it could be a very muddled race.

Anything Bart has in the cup will run huge and you wouldnt leave any of them out of your first fours...........

SHOCKING is still my pick for the cup and SHOOTOUT hasnt put a foot wrong yet either.......

The only overseas horse that may trouble them is SAN FRONTIERES..........

I think we will all know the form around the europeans when Manighar runs in the caulfield cup. If it comes close to Shocking or Metal bender, I think it will, then we get an idea of how good the europeans are this year. Manighar and Sans Frontieres both have (I read) a great turn of foot, and Holberg is apparently very good. If Manighar runs a strong 2400m, we know Both MB and Shocking can, then it will be a great MC. Throw the topgun SYT in and good golly miss molly.

Sans Frontieres has been withdrawn as of today

The MC can fall in the category of a dirty old hcp sometimes. but sometimes a quality horse come along and puts the shine right back on the old gold mug. horses that are not 2milers but the fact that they are of such quality that they can do things other can not ,horses that don't come off cup preps, but those that come through being dominate in WFA racing and the cup is an after thought or a thought in the very back reaches of the mind.
this year we get to see one of those horses that i speak of.
SoYouThink will win this years cup and the old gold cup will shine with a glow of the highest order.

Lol i see you have done a complete 360 on your opinion of So You Think surround

So You Think is becoming a Champion. I dont know it it will win the Cup yet, but if it runs it will be the shortest fav for some time.

Happy I took the $105 on offer with TAB 3 months ago about So You Think to win the Cox Plate and Melb Cup!

I'm very happy about the 80's I got about Alcocpop a month or so ago. Now into 12/1 and if SYT doesn't run in the Cup, is looking even better still.

Alcopop didn't run 2 miles last year with a perfect run in transit. Can't see how he can run it this year. Back him in the Caulfield Cup. Lay him in the Melbourne Cup

How is running fourth in a MC not running out the 2 miles? In my opinion, Alcopop went into last year's MC underdone and Jake Stephen's has learnt a lot from the experience. The fact he ran 4th after not racing for almost 4 weeks was a credit to the horse. Let's not forget he went from a Class 3 to the MC in five runs last year.

Surprised Andronicus' comment has gone uncorrected. Alcopop actually ran 6th with Master O'Reilly (4th) and Harris Tweed an enormous 5th (have a look at replay and be amazed at 1600m - 500m, last to 3rd then plodded. Alcopop comments still valid but not sure you can go past Shocking as form is faultless and the kms put in will be ideal.

thebaldeagle you beat me to it. I was going to make the same comment about Alcopop running 6th. Andronicus watch the replay, Alcopop had the run of the race with a light weight and wasn't good enough. I agree that he was at the end of his prep and 4 weeks between runs but still don't believe he will run a strong 2miles. Shocking is the bench mark but I think his race this year is the CC this weekend. I think Kav knows its there for the taking as Shocking looks to have them covered. So You Think will win the cup of he gets there.

Thanks guys...yes I saw a replay of last years cup yesterday after writing my comment and noticed myself that he ran sixth. Can't take Shocking in the CC at the weights tho against Alcocpop. Alcocpop meets him 5.5kgs better for thumping him in the Herbert Power last year over this distance. And I still think Shocking reserves his best runs for Flemington. I thought Metal Bendor's run the other week behind Zipping was a blinder also, and no matter what he does in the CC will be amongst my bets for the Cup this year.

In saying all of this, I have a feeling we may have a wet cup this year and all our selections could end up out the window. Anyone know of a good mudlark in the cup?

Really looking forward to Saturdays race. It is good to see so many people have contrasting opinions. I think Shocking is at least 5.5kgs better this year. He showed nothing last year prior to the lexus. I wouldn't leave Metal Bender out of my CC first 4's.

As for the wet cup, it depends on how wet. If it is a bog track Cest La Gurrue would be hard to beat and that would bring most of the International raiders into contention. Let's hope it is a dry track and the locals can hold onto the cup

Believe me Cest la guerre is a cat and couldn't win if they started now, not once has he produced a high rating since he's been racing in australia. Id take anyone on in australia it winning the caulfield or melbourne cup even if it was a mudders paradise. Name your price !!

Give me 80/1 for CLG on the Melb cup. Can we do it on betfair?

Or 100/1 if you're feeling generous :P

The question is can SYT run a strong 3200m? I think it might be a bit too much too soon, but this is obviously no ordinary horse. I would like to state for the record, I think Profound Beauty is the horse to beat without a doubt in my mind. This is a great mare, and I really think that it will be very hard to beat with 54kg. I have declared it, Weld will get his hat-trick.

It is certainly a very good horse Profound Beauty. Will almost certainly shorten from its current quote if all stays well. Weld doesnt bring them for nothing.

Hi All,
Just joined and this is my first post. I wanted to add to some thoughts on Alcopop, and his run last year. No horse ( just off the top of my head) who ran unplaced in the Melbourne Cup the previous year, has ever won the Cup the next year. I doubt that any have ever run a place, so Alcopop, and a few others this year have a lot of history against them.
Thoughts on laying off on live doubles? I Backed Descarado yesterday, and linked it with a few in the Melbourne Cup. My biggest possible collect is Descarado x Descarado for about 5K. Best way to cover the possible the others?

If SYT wins the plate by a space like I think he will then he will go around in the cup at $3 and if he settles in the race they will all be running for second

I reckon if SYT wins the Cox Plate by a space, you would be very lucky to get $3 on him in the Cup. I reckon he'll be even money. Having said that, I don't think he'll win by a space.

Deno just of the top of my head one comes to mind Empire Rose.

Got a few things wrong in the CC and underestimated Gai who got one of her horses absolutely A1 on the day. It is a bit harsh to lay the blame on M Rodd for Shocking's demise. It was my view that missing the start by 1/2 length cost him an extra 2 pairs back in running and that was it. Then I have to concede that Caulfield did not suit him as he could not and did not sprint into the race like the Flem 1000 to 600m permits. Maybe only SYT stands in his way but no penalty helps! Maybe just maybe Lloyd gets a chance, Linton/Zipping or another rabbit out of the hat from Gai (where's Once Were WIld?). Anyone out there who fancies the imports, bet to the max as I need the pools as big as poss.

Surround12,
Yes, you are correct, Empire Rose was one. They still have a very poor strike rate though, and something to keep in mind.

Surround12,
Empire Rose ran a place the year before, it was not unplaced. I just had a quick look at Millers Guide, and found only a handful that were unplaced the year before, and ran a place the next year, and they were Count Chivas, On A Jeune, The Phantom, Castletown. In the last 25 years, only 1, Brew was unplaced, and won the Cup the next year. Long term, it should save us from backing some losers I hope.

I follow that rule of thumb with the cups as well DENO but i reallly think ALCOPOP peaked a little early last year and also he should of at least made it into the placings with a very checkered passage. He meets SHOCKING a lot better at the weights this time around and I think is equal to if not better then last year.........a good barrier and he will be very hard to beat

Jazzer
Agree with you re Alcopop. The ride on Saturday was impatient at best. Dry track helps him too.

Disagree a bit about the ride Alcopop travelled sweetly into the race, was on the bit and untouched wasn't till it was asked for the effort that it failed to let down

dont discout the nz horses

Agreed Silver, if Monaco Consul is switched on upstairs rather than downstairs, he'll shake the hell out of it. Alcopop didn't run the trip last year can't see him doing it this year.

mate you should have seen him before the NZ derby ..there were 2 fillies Katie Lee and Zarzuela in that race , and all he was thinking about was {well not racing}lol...the offical word was Monaco consul Hung badly ...Coming around the turn ...hahahah ..i agree though ..i think he ll be there when the whips are cracking ..

and so will Harris Tweed.. dont be fooled into thinking hes Just a kiwi mud lark .or by what group one glen boss said , remember last years result ..5. Harris Tweed 6. Alcopop 7. Viewed 8. C'est La Guerre
he beat some good horses home last year, and struck major interference....hes won races on good tracks in New Zealand and has the services of B-rad Rawiller .say no more.

I have never been a huge fan but HARRIS TWEED is starting to look like a huge danger in the cup. id say a dead-slow track would bring him right into it. the timing just seems right about him. I am going to say ALCOPOP, SHOCKING, HARRIS TWEED and TOKAI TRICK at a bit odds atm

i dont think so you think can run the trip

Maybe the stablemate of So You think

He can and he will!! i dont have my doubts at all, he is saintly reincarnated!!

Maybe year too soon for Maluckyday, but hopefully he can show up in the 2500m race derby day at least ...

A lot of good judges don't think SYT will run the trip... G.Boss, D.Beadman, K.Calendar, the list goes on. I think they will all end up with egg on their face. SYT has already re-written the record books and will continue to do so. If Bart thinks he can run it then who am I or anyone else to doubt the greatest trainer of all time? It could be Bart's last and greatest Cup winner. What a great story it will be. Common SO YOU THINK! Home you go

i put a bet on i would put shocking so you think predence acliopop and zipping

Shocking is still going to be very hard to beat

anyone else noticed the steady money for the japanese stayer? I thought his run was huge in the caulfield cup stuck out 4 wide the trip and looked very uncomfortable in the wet..........its probably worth noting he dosnt hit his straps to 3000m plus........just a warning....we dont wanna let these japanese stayers slip under our guard again........I have a mate who has lived over there for a while now and word is that he is very underrated and on a dry surface may be on par with pop rock and the like.......just a thought

why is there no talk (anywhere) about MANIGHAR?
especially given all the talk about americain..

last start at 3000m lost to AMERICAIN by a head but was clearly storming home over 3200m and will be on better weight terms this time around.

good enough run in caulfield but distance in melb will suit. a decent barrier and soft track and i'll be getting more on it! (already half way in a double with so you think today)

for what its worth I like those 2 with HARRIS TWEED and SHOCKING rounding out the top 4!

I think with normal luck, Shocking will win again. Should have bolted in last Saturday and we know he hates Caulfield and yet he still ran that well with that weight on a bog track. I hope people keep backing SYT, then Shocking will get out to a better price.

Couldn't agree more Nudge, with all of the money from the once a year punters coming in for So You Think I could see Shocking starting at at a very nice price on the day. But then again whatever happens on Saturday could have an influence as well. Hopefully So You Think wins the Mackinnnon

i dont like the horse, but capecover was a big run yesty..

Absolutely agree Eeelz. Got a long way back and ran home hard. He is coming along very nicely. Is he a certain starter for the MC?

Not sure..but I would prefer him to precedence in the cup.

Definitely. Precedence is still 12 months away I think. Still doesnt quite know what its all about. Overall, neither will get near Shocking. I think he is nearly a special.

CAPECOVER is 39th in the order of entry.........I would say will be running in the lexus this saturday to try and get into the cup.............It will be a cracker of a lexus with horses like CEDARBURG also trying to snag a spot

Oh come on ... Shocking a special with SYT in the race!?? SYT is a champion and will have too much class. I backed SYT last year in the Cox Plate and heard similar sort of stuff. Champions do champion stuff - so I can hardly see how you can have another horse as a special in a race with a potential champion of the times in the same race. SYT is a special.

SHOOT OUT and SHOCKING for me currently.. SYT too short for me, given we don't know if he can run the distance and from what I saw on the w/end I don't think he will, but he does have the best in charge, so it wouldn't suprise me either...

will be interesting to see which ride Corey Brown decides on for the Cup, i'd be suprised if he didn't go with SHOOT OUT...

If both start Precedence will beat SYT home in the Cup.... BUT Shocking will beat both of them!

So You Think has the pedigree to stay..........so no worries in the MC.

Has so far accrued an average of almost $500,000.00 for each race start......he is clearly a Champion and only bad luck/bad ride will stop him from winning the MC this year.......

Just be happy that we are all privileged to witness possibly THE best horse to ever race in Australia......

Hi All, Loving the comments. So You Yhink has nothing to prove now, after his 2nd Cox Plate win. I am sure he can run the 3200, but can he carry 56 kg at his age. As we all know, he has not turned 4 yet. Shocking a tough old stayer gets 57kg, and So You Think as a 3 yo gets 56kg. If I was a bookmaker, I would take So You Think on in the Cup. Shocking worries me, as I thought he had a real gutbuster in the Caulfield Cup on a heavy track with 57 kg. I will resrve my tip till after Saturday. Agrew with Farva, Manighar's run was good, and gets the nice drop in the weight. Gotta love the Spring Carnival.

If SYT wins the MC, I'll glady hail him as the best ever but he hasn't done that yet. I agree with a few on here, keep backing SYT and Shocking will be great odds!

$50 bet Azurebell? Shocking beats SYT home next Tuesday.

PROFOUND BEAUTY is now in with a chance as she has settled in nicely and the weld camp are very happy and quietly confident she can win this. BAUER is sneaking under the radar slightly and he would surely be a huge chance given we know he will run the distance right out.........However I am still keen on TOKAI TRICK

Its a bet Nudge.

btw Nudge, if you decide to pay out early on our little wager (ala Sportsbet) then just let me know and I will send you my bank a/c details.

When T. J. Smith announced he was going to run Kingston Town in the Melbourne Cup every one was surprised and doubted he'd run the distance and he said 'champions can run any distance' and how right he was.

He is being asked to race in 3 very tough races over the space of 10 days. Yes, I know J B Cummings is the trainer but all champions can get beat and I am confident he'll get rolled in the big one. Steven Arnold even has his doubts about the champ running 3200m and he knows the horse better than anyone, except Bart. The plan will be to hold him up for one big run. For me, I'd prefer to back the horse who is proven at the track,distance,race and has the best rider on board. He ticks all the boxes and even with the weight, I think he'll win because he was just dynamite in the Caulfield Cup.

I agree that on paper Shocking looks the one ... but I am relying on the champion factor and Bart. And if SYT wins - he will be the people's horse. I used to back Our Maizcay over Octagonal all the time and despite all this great logic about why Octagonal should win, Our Maizcay kept winning.I did well out of that. That is the beauty of horse racing - champions defy logic. And when they win and you back them against the odds - it is very sweet!

I'm terrible at predicting Melb Cup winners but for what it's worth, I'm not convinced about So You Think over 3200m. He has had things go his way in his last couple. I'm a massive fan of the horse (barring the fact I lost plenty on him in the Caulfield Guineas) but, as the odds suggest, he is more chance of losing than winning, unlike he was in the Coz Plate. Bear in mind that I thought the same about Saintly. Unless Shocking fires I'm thinking one of the foreigners will win.

We have to look at history when it comes to SYT and Bart's history is faultless.Bart will not run him for practice if he runs he has a great chance of winning.The other Bart runners may suprise too.I think I'll get more money Saturday from SYT then play a standout F4 with SYTx8runnersx10runnersx10runners.The value is there!!!!

Would you rather a champion middle distance horse or a champion long distance horse over 3200m? Don't forget that we may well have 2 champs here but we just don't know it yet. Shocking has improved lengths and lengths on his win last yr where he was 3 wide all the way. I'll take the odds about Shocking every day over So You Think, he may well be a champ but it doesn't mean he will run every distance better than any other horse, especially one who is very very good at running the trip.

All this stuff about Bart Cummings knowing if a horse can run 2km is a bit overstated. Remember last year, when Bart supposedly knew Allez Wonder and Roman Emperor could run the trip? Well they had one of the slowest MCs on record and still they couldn't get there. So don't assume SYT can run the trip just because Bart says. For SYT to win they will have to change his racing pattern, which could be very hard to do. I think there are a lot of questions around SYT at the 3200, and I can't see the Mackinnon answering many of those.

For what its worth I think it is a pretty open MC. Think Shocking is obviously a big hope, with Harris Tweed big overs at the moment. Throw Shoot Out (racing more like a two miler now), Descardo, Metal Bender (the forgotten horse) and the foreigners in there and you have a very good race, as most MCs tend to be. Sad that it looks like Herculian Prince, Alcopop, Linton and Moudre can't be there, and Faint Perfume, Dariana and Buccelatti want to waste a spot.

Cheeseman?!?! So You Think has had things go his way?! In the Underwood he refused to settle, threw his head around, over raced and then had a bit of contact...and then brained them. In the Plate he danced up to the barriers because he was thrown off by the music and all the noise...and then he brained them. To say he has had a lot go his way is like saying Tony Lockett just always use to happen to find himself in the right place at the right time.
Barbarian I agree that we're not sure he can get the trip but the truth is we have more reasons to think he will than to think he won't. I'm not 100% sure he'll see out the trip but I suspect he will and he's given me no reason to think otherwise. This is definitely a very open Melbourne Cup, don't think Descarado is in contention to be honest unless it's heavy as buggery again, which it won't be because we won't get much rain and Flemington has the best drainage in the world. Metal Bender is forgotten for a reason and that's because he won't get the 3200, I love the horse but unlike SYT MB has given us a couple of reasons to suggest he won't get the two mile and I'd be surprised if he ran top 6 and expect him to finish bottom 10 should he run. Don't think the race is any poorer for Herculian Prince not being there and same goes for Moudre (in my opinion both have beaten bugger all and Metrop is poor form for the Melbourne Spring in recent times). Would like to see Alcopop and Linton in but Dariarna is certainly not wasting a spot, hates the heavy track which excuses the Caulfield Cup run and Turnbull day hardly anything made ground because the rail was out a long way and was a frontrunners bias so that excuses that run and before that she ran 2nd to SYT and finished off really well. I actually give Dariarna a good each way chance if we get a good track. Agree with you Buccelatti though.

Fair enough about SYT Molanski. I probably won't back him but wouldn't dare write him off. As for Metal Bender I haven't seen the reasons you suggest he can't get the two mile. Was coming on well with Shocking and Shootout in the Turnbull, and didn't handle the Heavy in the Caulfield. I think he is a classy horse and I would not be surprised if he ran a race in the Mackinnon. As for Descarado, any Caulfield Cup winner has to be respected regardless of the conditions. He probably won't win but I would not leave him out of my multiples.

I take your point Molanski. I guess I'm more talking about where he was in running and the pace of the race. He puts himself into a good position but good positions are only good if the pace of the race suits aswell which I believe it has done. I too will have a bet on Dariana if the ground suits.

Bauer...this bugger owes me 10 flats! I hope his nose has grown!

I suggest Metal Bender can't get the 2 mile because he's twice gone up to 2400 and twice finished 8th and looked like he didn't run it out. I agree he is classy and has toughness and I think he's a huge chance to win the Mackinnon but I don't think he can go any further and threaten to win. I suppose you have to respect Caulfield Cup winners but how often is the double done, 5 times in the last 40 years or something? Descarado won't be in my multiples (even though I had him in my CC trifecta) as I just can't see him being in the finish, but that's just my opinion.
The reason the cup is so great and so fun is because it's so unpredictable. Go through the past winners and there is absolutely no pattern to follow like other races. Occassionally there are patterns that develop over a 5 year period or so only to die out a couple of years later (the Mackinnon Stakes-Melbourne Cup double was done 3 or 4 times out of 6 or 7 attempts in the late 80s into the early 90s I believe and has only been done once since). Undoubtedly most runners and a lot of winners come through the CC but many run good races without winning or even placing.

2 words for yuh..Harris Tweed .hes had 2 goes at 3200. for a fifth in last years cup ,{he got into more trouble than batman and robin}3rd in the Sydney cup.he won the bart cummings , 2nd in the caulfield cup .Brad Rawiller admitted he made his run too soon on him and hes by proven 3200 m super sire Montjeu.dont be fooled into thinking hes just a wet tracker.hes won on good tracks in NZ as well .

Re SYT ... anyway the first challenge is to see if Bart does in fact decide to start him in the MC. I must admit that I am still wondering about that - especially if the change in riding tactics dont come off in the MacKinnon. I see that some agencies have pushed out SYT in the odds over the weekend and Shocking has come in. Anyway thhe MC is unpredictable as Molanski says ... and I have not backed an MC winner since Saintly - so I hope I am on the right one this year.

LINTON cruiser waiting for just reward
MONACO CONSUL last start pushing for the line with plenty in tank
ALCOPOP willing to give 1 more to show best on drying track plenty there
METAL BENDER really gives the classy appearance and form over last two carnivals can't argue shiny with bright lights

The High Chapparals trifecta'd the AJC Derby, got 1st & 3rd in Caul Cup, cant see why they cant run 1st 4, why not. SYT, Descarado, Monaco Consul, Shoot Out. Not likely, but stranger things have happened ...

Agree with ya Molanski. Metal Bender is very limited chance.
Im not sure Linton will run, even if it wins Saturday

If history tells us anything it is that champions overcome anything thrown at them. There has been many good horse suspect at the distance that run well in the cup. Kingston Town, Super Impose... both horses are champions at 2000m and less. They where asked to carry big weight in the cup and almost pulled it off. I think everyone forgets that SYT only has to carry 56kgs. Only 2.5kgs above the minimum! If the race was re handicapped today SYT would carry 60kgs. Bart will run him for sure! He will never get in a handicap this light ever again! I believe Bart has planned this from the moment he won the Plate last year. In my opinion he went in to the Plate with room for improvement. If he settles in the Cup and runs his final furlong in 11 they wont get near him. He is a champion and he will prove that on Tuesday! Come the following year everyone will doubt him over 1400m first up and he will win that as well. Champions find a way to win regardless of the circumstances.

I am not on the SYT bandwagon. Yeh i backed him for the easy money in the cox but I honestly dont think he meets horses like SHOCKING or AMERICAIN very well at the weights at all. I know im probably just adding to the tall poppy syndrome but this bloke has got away with murder in both cox plates and i think he is a huge query when they go for home 1000m out in the melbourne cup.........i would much rather be on a tried and true stayer that we know will be strong to the line.

But you watch him come out and blow all the knockers like me all away........

i like DARIANA out of Barts stable..........will improve 20l's on a dry track

Lets face it - if SYT proves to be a champion at any distance, takes his chance in this MC with the light weight and wins with ease - then how good will that be ... especially if you backed it. I noted that even Mark Read is a nay sayer. Ken Callender is doubtful. I also noted that some have said if Bart was younger he would have sent SYT over seas instead to race at the 2000 mark. We can sit here for hours and think of all sort of reasons why not. He has also not run 10,000kms. Anyway, if you all agreed with me and backed SYT then the odds would be crazier than they already are. So, all good. I am already planning my MC day ... champers at breakfast, long lunch etc etc ... cant wait!!

I read Mark Read's comment in The Age this morning Azure, not sure about them, might just be wanting some publicity and trying to turn punters off SYT. I'm not sure about Americain, I know he won well in the GC and you can only beat your opponents on the day but I'm not sure that field was much good.

Also agree with Lightning about Bart and the Cup, reckon he was always heading to Flemington on the first Tuesday in November and Arnold had it in the back of his mind the whole way through.

I think everyone has doubts about SYT at the two miles - even Bart said that you never know until you go. I'll state the obvious though, Bart has a winning SR of nearly 15% in The Cup and I'll trust his judgement above others. The horse is a great story for both the once-a-year followers and the diehards.

All I know about the race so far is that SYT and Shocking are on the top line of my F4 and tri's. Shocking is 100% primed, no other way to put it. Probably a little bit under the radar too. Equal fave but the media is naturally all about Bart's horse. And I don't want to be the person that missed out on a big tri/F4 because I left the Bart Cummings trained fave off the first line.
Americain, Descarado, and Zipping are three others that will also be in my exotics should they all start. Plus a stack more.

I've just had a speccy on Exceptionally at $350 on Betfair. Her run at Flemington behind Harris Tweed 2 starts back was super, then she had very little luck in the Geelong Cup. Harris Tweed franked the form in the CC. She's nominated for the Lexus Derby Day (the old SAAB Quality) and if she wins, she gets a ballot free entry into the Cup I believe? The 3200m and the Flemington would suit her beautifully with around 50kgs. Well worth a speccy investment...

Yeah winner of the Mackinnon and Lexus are straight into the Cup Millsy but hard to see So You Think getting beaten in the Mackinnon I'd say so probably won't see much change to the Cup from that race. I thought Linton was the one to beat in the Lexus and it looks like it'll rain so probably gives Purple a chance. If I was you Millsy I'd be hoping the rain stays away because Exceptionally needs it dead I reckon, 4 starts on worse than dead (admittedly probably not over the most suitable distances) and not even a place, in fact its best result in the wet is a 5th out of 12 behind Mr. Charlie in a handicap earlier this prep. I really liked it going into the Geelong Cup but gone off it a bit now I think...

I think Zipping will win the McKinnon.... already beaten shocking this prep... was closing in on So You Think in the cox. He's a grand old horse.

I think they'll ride So You Think quitely and get him ready for the cup which may provide a slight chink in the armour... zipping, shocking, so you think for me.

+ 1. Go Zipping!

Same here Vicey, I been considering zipping also over the last 2-3 weeks.

Zipping for me in the Mackinnon if he runs aswell. Odds should be juicey!

Soyouthink is too sectionally brilliant for zipping he would have to be 6-7ls in front of him at the 400m to be any chance of holding him off. I would like to see the mackinnon run really fast to see if Soyouthink can still run fast overall time because not one of his wins has he had to do it at both ends this prep. He's shown in the past that he can but the circumstances just haven't allowed the opportunity for him. Still the mackinnon's in his mercy and there's no way you could back Zipping over him until the melbourne cup which must be still a lingering doubt of him even running.

I will have something on Zipping in the Mackinnon, his last 200m in the Cox Plate was great. But won't be backing him in the Melbourne Cup, he cannot run the two miles out strong enough. That was evident in 2007, when 4th behind Efficient. Loomed up at the 400m like a winner but peaked on his run. I'm pretty sure Danehill has never sired a Melbourne Cup winner.

vice 110 for cest la cat if you want it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah, science and facts tell the story for the MacKinnon. If SYT is ridden back then he should still win, unless he does not get a clear run or somehow gets pushed too far back at the wrong time. But, the MacKinnon is worth quite a bit of dosh - so I am sure that Arnold will not do anything too foolish.

The doubt with me about SYT is can he handle the seven day back up after a gutbuster at Moonee Valley, then to back up and win the MC...he would have to be better than Pharlap to do that, and although he is a champion, he won't run 3200m and It seems like Australia agrees with me with SYT the ambassador of Ihavenofriends.com and Shocking now the favourite.

Punters can be fickle - the money starts flowing and then there doubts are so proven and they jump ship. Even Bart does not know if he will run 3200 or not. SYT has the breeding too, but the jump in distance is mammoth, but then he is weighted well and I do like to think that Bart has had a plan all along. It is such a great Melbourne cup field this year though - really great! I also like Americain - yeah the Geelong Cup was not a great form race and he had a charmed ride, but we know Americain can stay the 3200 and he can position well, so a good bet - he will be my backup bet. For the multiples I like SYT, Americain, Shocking, Harris Tweed (only if it is dead or worse), Decarado, Manighar and Moncao Consul.

Has anyone heard about the stud deal on offer to So You Think. Word is that the deal will go ahead as long as it doesn't start in the Melbourne Cup......Would be nice to find out so we can get on some other horses before they shorten

yeah i said the same thing in another thread podo last week from what ive heard its a done and dusted deal and the cox was his last race..

Mmmmm interesting

I'd be surprised if SYT went to stud this soon. Dato and Bart aren't buying green bananas anymore, so this may very well be their last bash at a Melbourne Cup. Dato doesn't need the money and Bart only draws breath to get Melbourne Cup runners.

I would be hugely surprised if Bart had no intention of running in the MC with SYT because a deal had been done - and then make statements in the press contrary to that. He owns the MC and will not play with it in that way,

Gutbuster in the cox ? when more joyous got too the lead she slowed the tempo right down and that's why they could sprint home so quickly nudge. Syt sprinted home in 34.83 the second quickest for the day behind Whobe who ran 34.33. How can you clearly say that he "won't" get 2 mile ? He's by High chapparal and the dam triassic only had 6 starts and won the sir tristram classic over 2000m. So we only second guessing here...if barts running it then you have suggest he will get it ! The man's a genuis and i'm sure he knows the horse inside out.

Yeah i can't believe there are still people against this horse come on what does he have to do? I know he is not proven he can stay two mile but you can't just say he won't run it because you simply don't know. All i can say is wait til Tuesday and hopefully any remaining doubt is removed.

I think Shocking is clearly the horse to beat and his chances only improve if the track is rain affected. I have the utmost respect for So You Think, who is clearly Australia's best horse up to 2000m however I believe Shocking to be Australia's best staying horse. He sat 3 and 4 deep the entire trip last year and was super strong at the end. Add to this his obvious liking for Flemington, the likelihood of a wet track, he's not been treated harshly at the weights, his obvious improvement from last year and his Caulfield Cup run and it all points to another victory. If So You Think can stay then he will be the hardest to beat but more than happy to have Shocking running around at 25/1.

Ummm I think we forgetting some of the internationals flying under the radar. What are people's thoughts on the internationals?

All the people questioning if SYT will run in the cup should wake up to themselves. The cup has been the plan all along! This is what Bart and Dato live for. Only possibility of him not running is on a Heavy 10. All this talk about Shocking sitting 3 wide the trip last year is over rated. He carried 51kgs and the pace was slower then a wet week. He did himself a favour by sitting closer even tho he was 3 wide. Let's face it he didn't beat a strong field last year. The race fav VIEWED got polaxed several times and still finished 8th. I respect Shocking and give him a place chance but I can't see him winning the cup again. I think the danger to SYT is LINTON if he runs. He will brain them in the Lexus and probably back up and be hard to beat.

MP - I've got Profound Beauty and Americain very high in my calculations, I reckon they are far and away the best of the blow ins. Manighar has some hype around it too.

Profound Beauty is much more mature than last time and is in red hot form. Americain was very good in the Geelong Cup I thought.

So SYT is ridden cold in the MacKinnon, relaxes well and then on the home straight swoops and is away ... wins easy. How does that change things in the MC betting market? Does SYT become favourite again? Strange really ... as if I was a betting man (oh I am ... duhhh) then that is what we all know will most likely happen in the MacKinnon. Dont like Profound Beauty - wont get the distance, especially in such a strong field.

Shocking, Manighar and Americain are IMO the horses to beat come Tuesday. I'll be working multiples around these 3 with Monaco Consul, Zipping and HTweed coming in to play looking at the weather forecast to make up minor places. Looking at taking a few multiples with Dig Fort for the Derby into the 1st 3 at good odds. IMO SYT shouldnt be running this year....would give me greater confidence in leaving the unknown out of multiples

+ 1 Infidel.
Plugger - sorry mate im definitely steering clear of cest la cat!
X-Ball - Not to get too far off topic but im really hoping Zipping contends the Sandown Classic again on nothing worse than a dead 5 and it could be curtains. Does anyone know if he would run in the SC if he also contends the Melb Cup?

I don't think Zipping would miss the Sandown Classic for the world. In fact, I have a sneaking suspicion that Zipping is actually set for the SC every year, and just treats the CP and MC as lead up runs to get some mileage in his legs before the big one on that famous second saturday in November.

After Saturdays run Bart will get the miles he needs in SYT regardless if he wins ..come Cup day this horse will be the highest priced stallion in the land ..I have not see a better stayer built like Phar Lap and will produce the goods just like that champion as only allrounded stayers can do ... he will stay the distance and you have to be a unreasonable to not have a bet on him ..let his price drift it suits me and my pockets.

MONACO CONSUL $44 @ $23.00 = $1012.00
PROFOUND BEAUTY $48 @ $21.00 = $1008.00
HARRIS TWEED $29 @ $35.00 = $1015.00
C EST LA GUERRE $8 @ $51.00 = $408.00
RED RULER $5 @ $501.00 = $2505.00
MOUDRE $6 @ $51.00 = $306.00

This is what i backed tonight for the cup.

MightandPower69...
I couldnt agree more,
love the look of MANIGHAR especially after seeing it 2mnths ago storm home over 3000m to lose by a halfhead vs the now 3rd favourite americain (who i also like the look of). wouldve definately won with another 200m, looked good in the CC and with a nice soft track due it will be hard to beat. as will AMERICAIN.
and u cant dismiss the new zealanders in HARRIS TWEED and MONACO CONSUL who will both be in my multiples.

I'm not so quick to join the chorus of those that think Profound Beauty can't run the trip. Plenty of form of late around 2800m with anywhere up to 62kg, albeit in weaker class. Has only had one go at 3200m for a 2.7l 5th in the 2008 Melb Cup.

I agree dr.whiz i think PB has an awesome chance and distance will def not be a problem

I declared it a while ago and I am still confident it can win. It won the Saval Beg earlier this year before losing to Sans Frontieres in the Leger. The Saval Beg has been won by two other horses before coming out here and winning. They were Media Puzzle and Vintage Crop. The year Viewed won the MC they ran a quick time because the Irish horses set up that stupid pace. Profound Beauty was only 2.7 l away and is a much better horse this year. The time it won the Saval Beg in was fairly similar to the time Media Puzzle won in, and that was the year it came out and beat the MC field quite easily. So if history repeats itself....I will be putting it in all my exotics anyway. Again though how much rain will fall while they are racing on Saturday. I wont be betting until the day see how the track plays.

i just seen the weather forecast........raining saturday through to tuesday apparently.......could be on a very heavy melbourne cup...........i hope the rain wont hit till late saturday so we can have a dry derby and the track wont get too chopped up for the cup.........obviously now HARRIS TWEED is the obvious choice if it is going to be a bog

from what i hear we are getting the same rain on Derby Day as we did the day before Caulfield Cup..
with two days of scattered showers to follow so i dont think u will be looking at a heavy 10 like it was for CC..

The weather bureau has revised its forecast and are no longer expecting the really heavy rain on Saturday. In fact it could just be some heavy showers and cold. It could only be 5mms. It also is looking much better for the MC than at first expected. So I think we could even end up with a dead on MC day. "Goody said the forecasters were tipping a few millimetres of rain before the morning and a similar amount before lunch. He anticipated about 5mm during the meeting."

they put up 4.50 after the mackinnon for SYT - The bookies are gonna get raped

Just got on but 3.80 :(

will SYT get another penalty?

no

Shocking drew barrier 24 ... shocking.

So you think .... 3 .... perfect.

MALUCKYDAY 6..........I am confident she will at least beat lINTON and PRECENDENCE home as it looks like he smashed that form line today..........i hope SYT falls over

Yep but you never know Linton i still feel has alot of untaped ability just like MALUCKYDAY just happy its getting a start at 41s, but got on SYT at 3.80 spewing i couldnt get on at 4.50 but it is the horse to beat now.

I think your just betting on if So You Think stays. Its unbeatable if it does.
Linton is a big chance, just as much as maluckyday is. They seem to go hard early, set up for Maluckyday, Linton still a very good run

There's no doubt Linton was a great run like i mentioned and if he drew a decent gate i'd be much more confident than i am but if Shocking is going to be up against it drawing the alley next door you'd have to think Linton would be as well. I realize there's a 5kg weight difference but one's a tough seasoned stayer who's been there done that before and one tackling the race at only his 8th start which will be made even tougher if the track is anywhere near heavy which is a massive chance. I hope to hell and love nothing more than for Linton to get up (well except for Once were wild) but he'll need everything to go his way and then some.

After losing plenty to the bookies - which started around 11.10am and didnt finish until almost 4pm I am hoping like a bad kid on XMas that old Illustrious Blue puts some serious $$$ back into the account

SO YOU THINK REPORTELY SOLD FOR 20 MILLION TO OVERSEAS INTERESTS??

No way 20mil? thats massive unders.... maybe they sold him as a shuttle stallion for 20mil and Dato stands him at Think Big Stud as well?? Either way after the Cup I think he will be sold but more like 50mil.

DATO wont sell till after the cup.. a few sheikhs are fighting over him at the moment. MET is right, $20 mill wouldnt scratch the surface.. they would charge a million just to get your photo taken with him if he wins the cup!!

puntingaustralia com got 4 winners yesterday and has tips for the cup

Pity it's not going to be dryish other wise I'd have something on Red Ruler liked the run yesterday, and liek the amount of work it's done this prep.

i wouldnt rule out american

i woulnd rule out american because a horse from the same shire won the kenturcky derby in 2006 barbaro by six lengths

jazzern23 ma lucky day is a gelding